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The use of tiered warnings and multicategorical forecasts are ubiquitous in meteorological operations. Here, a flexible family of scoring functions is presented for evaluating the performance of ordered multicategorical forecasts. Each…

Applications · Statistics 2022-05-02 Robert Taggart , Nicholas Loveday , Deryn Griffiths

Despite achieving excellent performance on benchmarks, deep neural networks often underperform in real-world deployment due to sensitivity to minor, often imperceptible shifts in input data, known as distributional shifts. These shifts are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-25 Birk Torpmann-Hagen , Pål Halvorsen , Michael A. Riegler , Dag Johansen

Deep learning models have demonstrated remarkable success in various fields, including seismology. However, one major challenge in deep learning is the presence of mislabeled examples. Additionally, accurately estimating model uncertainty…

Deep Ensembles, as a type of Bayesian Neural Networks, can be used to estimate uncertainty on the prediction of multiple neural networks by collecting votes from each network and computing the difference in those predictions. In this paper,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-10 Illia Oleksiienko , Alexandros Iosifidis

When a deep learning model is deployed in the wild, it can encounter test data drawn from distributions different from the training data distribution and suffer drop in performance. For safe deployment, it is essential to estimate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-16 Jiefeng Chen , Frederick Liu , Besim Avci , Xi Wu , Yingyu Liang , Somesh Jha

Ensemble learning is a methodology that integrates multiple DNN learners for improving prediction performance of individual learners. Diversity is greater when the errors of the ensemble prediction is more uniformly distributed. Greater…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-30 Ling Liu , Wenqi Wei , Ka-Ho Chow , Margaret Loper , Emre Gursoy , Stacey Truex , Yanzhao Wu

Machine learning classifiers often produce probabilistic predictions that are critical for accurate and interpretable decision-making in various domains. The quality of these predictions is generally evaluated with proper losses, such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-26 Eugène Berta , David Holzmüller , Michael I. Jordan , Francis Bach

When machine learning supports decision-making in safety-critical systems, it is important to verify and understand the reasons why a particular output is produced. Although feature importance calculation approaches assist in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-14 Divish Rengasamy , Benjamin Rothwell , Grazziela Figueredo

Underlying the use of statistical approaches for a wide range of applications is the assumption that the probabilities obtained from a statistical model are representative of the "true" probability that event, or outcome, will occur.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-15 Xixin Wu , Mark Gales

Ensemble learning combines several individual models to obtain a better generalization performance. In this work we present a practical method for estimating the joint power of several classifiers. It differs from existing approaches which…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-12-22 Simi Haber , Yonatan Wexler

Since state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation methods are often computationally demanding, we investigate whether incorporating prior information can improve uncertainty estimates in conventional deep neural networks. Our focus is on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-21 Fabian Denoodt , José Oramas

Modern deep neural networks can produce badly calibrated predictions, especially when train and test distributions are mismatched. Training an ensemble of models and averaging their predictions can help alleviate these issues. We propose a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-09 Asa Cooper Stickland , Iain Murray

When randomized ensembles such as bagging or random forests are used for binary classification, the prediction error of the ensemble tends to decrease and stabilize as the number of classifiers increases. However, the precise relationship…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-01 Miles E. Lopes

Foundation models have become a dominant paradigm in machine learning, achieving remarkable performance across diverse tasks through large-scale pretraining. However, these models often yield overconfident, uncalibrated predictions. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Mehmet Ozgur Turkoglu , Dominik J. Mühlematter , Alexander Becker , Konrad Schindler , Helge Aasen

Model monitoring is a critical component of the machine learning lifecycle, safeguarding against undetected drops in the model's performance after deployment. Traditionally, performance monitoring has required access to ground truth labels,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Juhani Kivimäki , Jakub Białek , Wojtek Kuberski , Jukka K. Nurminen

To achieve high performance of a machine learning (ML) task, a deep learning-based model must implicitly capture the entire distribution from data. Thus, it requires a huge amount of training samples, and data are expected to fully present…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-17 Hung Nguyen , Morris Chang

Although sparse training has been successfully used in various resource-limited deep learning tasks to save memory, accelerate training, and reduce inference time, the reliability of the produced sparse models remains unexplored. Previous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-02 Bowen Lei , Ruqi Zhang , Dongkuan Xu , Bani Mallick

Research has shown that deep networks tend to be overly optimistic about their predictions, leading to an underestimation of prediction errors. Due to the limited nature of data, existing studies have proposed various methods based on model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Jia-Qi Yang , De-Chuan Zhan , Le Gan

With the growing adoption of deep learning models in different real-world domains, including computational biology, it is often necessary to understand which data features are essential for the model's decision. Despite extensive recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-04 Prashnna K Gyawali , Xiaoxia Liu , James Zou , Zihuai He

Time series modeling techniques based on deep learning have seen many advancements in recent years, especially in data-abundant settings and with the central aim of learning global models that can extract patterns across multiple time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-21 Stephan Rabanser , Tim Januschowski , Valentin Flunkert , David Salinas , Jan Gasthaus