Related papers: Importance Sampling with the Integrated Nested Lap…
This paper proposes a two-stage estimation approach for a spatial misalignment scenario that is motivated by the epidemiological problem of linking pollutant exposures and health outcomes. We use the integrated nested Laplace approximation…
Importance Sampling methods are broadly used to approximate posterior distributions or some of their moments. In its standard approach, samples are drawn from a single proposal distribution and weighted properly. However, since the…
Two-part joint models for a longitudinal semicontinuous biomarker and a terminal event have been recently introduced based on frequentist estimation. The biomarker distribution is decomposed into a probability of positive value and the…
The linearized-Laplace approximation (LLA) has been shown to be effective and efficient in constructing Bayesian neural networks. It is theoretically compelling since it can be seen as a Gaussian process posterior with the mean function…
This work has been motivated by the challenge of the 2017 conference on Extreme-Value Analysis (EVA2017), with the goal of predicting daily precipitation quantiles at the $99.8\%$ level for each month at observed and unobserved locations.…
The Laplace approximation has been one of the workhorses of Bayesian inference. It often delivers good approximations in practice despite the fact that it does not strictly take into account where the volume of posterior density lies.…
We explore efficient estimation of statistical quantities, particularly rare event probabilities, for stochastic reaction networks. Consequently, we propose an importance sampling (IS) approach to improve the Monte Carlo (MC) estimator…
We propose two extensions to existing importance sampling based methods for lossy compression. First, we introduce an importance sampling based compression scheme that is a variant of ordered random coding (Theis and Ahmed, 2022) and is…
Medical imaging involves high-dimensional data, yet their acquisition is obtained for limited samples. Multivariate predictive models have become popular in the last decades to fit some external variables from imaging data, and standard…
Large-scale linear models are ubiquitous throughout machine learning, with contemporary application as surrogate models for neural network uncertainty quantification; that is, the linearised Laplace method. Alas, the computational cost…
The marginal likelihood is a central tool for drawing Bayesian inference about the number of components in mixture models. It is often approximated since the exact form is unavailable. A bias in the approximation may be due to an incomplete…
We consider the problem of approximate Bayesian parameter inference in non-linear state-space models with intractable likelihoods. Sequential Monte Carlo with approximate Bayesian computations (SMC-ABC) is one approach to approximate the…
Inference of latent feature models in the Bayesian nonparametric setting is generally difficult, especially in high dimensional settings, because it usually requires proposing features from some prior distribution. In special cases, where…
We present Automatic Laplace Collapsed Sampling (ALCS), a general framework for marginalising latent parameters in Bayesian models using automatic differentiation, which we combine with nested sampling to explore the hyperparameter space in…
Machine Unlearning is essential for large generative models (VAEs, DDPMs) to comply with the right to be forgotten and prevent undesired content generation without costly retraining. Existing approaches, such as Static-lambda SISS for…
Model selection aims to find the best model in terms of accuracy, interpretability or simplicity, preferably all at once. In this work, we focus on evaluating model performance of Gaussian process models, i.e. finding a metric that provides…
The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to model seismic sequences and underpins Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF). However, it remains challenging to assess the reliability of inverted ETAS parameters for a…
More than twenty years after its introduction, Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) remains one of the most effective methods for marginal likelihood estimation. It relies on a sequence of distributions interpolating between a tractable…
Recent advances in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) extend the scope of Bayesian inference to models for which the likelihood function is intractable. Although these developments allow us to estimate model parameters, other basic problems…
The hierarchical prior used in Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) induces a posterior geometry prone to frustrate inference algorithms. Marginalizing out the latent Gaussian variable using an integrated Laplace approximation removes the…