Related papers: Prewhitened Long-Run Variance Estimation Robust to…
Linear models are foundational tools in statistics and ubiquitous across the applied sciences. However, conventional statistical inference -- such as $t$-tests and $F$-tests -- are only valid at fixed sample sizes, making them unsuitable…
We consider a longitudinal data structure consisting of baseline covariates, time-varying treatment variables, intermediate time-dependent covariates, and a possibly time dependent outcome. Previous studies have shown that estimating the…
We consider the problem of testing for long-range dependence in time-varying coefficient regression models, where the covariates and errors are locally stationary, allowing complex temporal dynamics and heteroscedasticity. We develop KPSS,…
In this contribution we introduce weakly locally stationary time series through the local approximation of the non-stationary covariance structure by a stationary one. This allows us to define autoregression coefficients in a non-stationary…
An R package for specifying and estimating linear latent variable models is presented. The philosophy of the implementation is to separate the model specification from the actual data, which leads to a dynamic and easy way of modeling…
When evaluating and comparing models using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV), the uncertainty of the estimate is typically assessed using the variance of the sampling distribution. Considering the uncertainty is important, as the…
Vector autoregressions (VARs) are a widely used tool for modelling multivariate time-series. It is common to assume a VAR is stationary; this can be enforced by imposing the stationarity condition which restricts the parameter space of the…
Understanding the time-varying structure of complex temporal systems is one of the main challenges of modern time series analysis. In this paper, we show that every uniformly-positive-definite-in-covariance and sufficiently short-range…
We discuss a class of difference-based estimators for the autocovariance in nonparametric regression when the signal is discontinuous (change-point regression), possibly highly fluctuating, and the errors form a stationary $m$-dependent…
Latent variable (LV) models are widely used in psychological research to investigate relationships among unobservable constructs. When one-stage estimation of the overall LV model is challenging, two-stage factor score regression (FSR)…
This paper considers a time-varying vector error-correction model that allows for different time series behaviours (e.g., unit-root and locally stationary processes) to interact with each other to co-exist. From practical perspectives, this…
Missing covariate data pose a significant challenge to statistical inference and machine learning, particularly for classification tasks like logistic regression. Classical iterative approaches (EM, multiple imputation) are often…
High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models are important tools for the analysis of multivariate time series. This paper focuses on high-dimensional time series and on the different regularized estimation procedures proposed for…
Two adaptive bandwidth selection methods for nonparametric estimators in locally stationary processes are proposed. We investigate a cross validation approach and a method based on contrast minimization and derive asymptotic properties of…
Training a deep neural network (DNN) often involves stochastic optimization, which means each run will produce a different model. Several works suggest this variability is negligible when models have the same performance, which in the case…
Vector autoregression (VAR) is a fundamental tool for modeling multivariate time series. However, as the number of component series is increased, the VAR model becomes overparameterized. Several authors have addressed this issue by…
Bayesian Neural Networks with Latent Variables (BNN+LVs) capture predictive uncertainty by explicitly modeling model uncertainty (via priors on network weights) and environmental stochasticity (via a latent input noise variable). In this…
Online nonparametric estimators are gaining popularity due to their efficient computation and competitive generalization abilities. An important example includes variants of stochastic gradient descent. These algorithms often take one…
Estimation of a precision matrix (i.e., inverse covariance matrix) is widely used to exploit conditional independence among continuous variables. The influence of abnormal observations is exacerbated in a high dimensional setting as the…
For a broad class of nonlinear time series known as Bernoulli shifts, we establish the asymptotic normality of the smoothed periodogram estimator of the long-run variance. This estimator uses only a narrow band of Fourier frequencies around…