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This paper develops asymptotic theory for estimation of parameters in regression models for binomial response time series where serial dependence is present through a latent process. Use of generalized linear model (GLM) estimating…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-06-06 W. T. M. Dunsmuir , J. Y. He

One of the important and widely used classes of models for non-Gaussian time series is the generalized autoregressive model average models (GARMA), which specifies an ARMA structure for the conditional mean process of the underlying time…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-13 Tingguo Zheng , Han Xiao , Rong Chen

Generalized additive index models (GAIMs) offer a flexible semiparametric framework for capturing complex data relationships, balancing the interpretability of parametric models with the flexibility of nonparametric approaches. However,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Ziyu Peng , Linglingzhi Zhu , Yao Xie

We propose a Bayesian approach to the problem of multi-reference alignment -- the recovery of signals from noisy, randomly shifted observations. While existing frequentist methods accurately recover the signal at arbitrarily low…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-15 Axel Janson , Joakim Andén

In this paper we study the problem of model reduction by moment matching for stochastic systems. We characterize the mathematical object which generalizes the notion of moment to stochastic differential equations and we find a class of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-05-06 Giordano Scarciotti , Andrew R. Teel

This paper presents a novel neural network training approach for faster convergence and better generalization abilities in deep reinforcement learning. Particularly, we focus on the enhancement of training and evaluation performance in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-26 Mohammed Sharafath Abdul Hameed , Gavneet Singh Chadha , Andreas Schwung , Steven X. Ding

Measuring learning progress is essential for curiosity-driven exploration in reinforcement learning, but widely used signals such as prediction error often fail to distinguish meaningful, learnable patterns from random noise. This paper…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Samuel Blad , Martin Längkvist , Amy Loutfi

With the advance of large language models (LLMs), LLMs have been utilized for the various tasks. However, the issues of variability and reproducibility of results from each trial of LLMs have been largely overlooked in existing literature…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-08 Junichiro Niimi

Generalized linear models (GLMs) are routinely used for modeling relationships between a response variable and a set of covariates. The simple form of a GLM comes with easy interpretability, but also leads to concerns about model…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-10 Davide Agnoletto , Tommaso Rigon , David B. Dunson

A novel multi-task Gaussian process (GP) framework is proposed, by using a common mean process for sharing information across tasks. In particular, we investigate the problem of time series forecasting, with the objective to improve…

Computation · Statistics 2022-05-25 Arthur Leroy , Pierre Latouche , Benjamin Guedj , Servane Gey

We present $\Gamma$-nets, a method for generalizing value function estimation over timescale. By using the timescale as one of the estimator's inputs we can estimate value for arbitrary timescales. As a result, the prediction target for any…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-20 Craig Sherstan , Shibhansh Dohare , James MacGlashan , Johannes Günther , Patrick M. Pilarski

After a quick review of superpositions of OU (supOU) processes, integrated sup\-OU processes and the supOU stochastic volatility model we estimate these processes by using the generalized method of moments (GMM). We show that the GMM…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-01-26 Robert Stelzer , Thomas Tosstorff , Marc Wittlinger

In this paper we develop a generalized likelihood ratio scan method (GLRSM) for multiple change-points inference in piecewise stationary time series, which estimates the number and positions of change-points and provides a confidence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-03-03 Wai Leong Ng , Shenyi Pan , Chun Yip Yau

We propose a high-order stochastic-statistical moment closure model for efficient ensemble prediction of leading-order statistical moments and probability density functions in multiscale complex turbulent systems. The statistical moment…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-06-21 Di Qi , Jian-Guo Liu

Gaussian random field (GRF) models are widely used in spatial statistics to capture spatially correlated error. We investigate the results of replacing Gaussian processes with Laplace moving averages (LMAs) in spatial generalized linear…

Applications · Statistics 2019-07-26 Adam Walder , Ephraim M. Hanks

Conventional simulations of complex systems in the canonical ensemble suffer from the quasi-ergodicity problem. A simulation in generalized ensemble overcomes this difficulty by performing a random walk in potential energy space and other…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-07-24 Yuji Sugita , Ayori Mitsutake , Yuko Okamoto

For the multivariate COGARCH process, we obtain explicit expressions for the second-order structure of the "squared returns" process observed on an equidistant grid. Based on this, we present a generalized method of moments estimator for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-03 Thiago do Rêgo Sousa , Robert Stelzer

Measurement error is a pervasive issue which renders the results of an analysis unreliable. The measurement error literature contains numerous correction techniques, which can be broadly divided into those which aim to produce exactly…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-08 Dylan Spicker , Michael P Wallace , Grace Y Yi

In $M$-estimation under standard asymptotics, the weak convergence combined with the polynomial type large deviation estimate of the associated statistical random field Yoshida (2011) provides us with not only the asymptotic distribution of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-18 Hiroki Masuda , Yusuke Shimizu

We develop some theoretical results for a robust similarity measure named "generalized min-max" (GMM). This similarity has direct applications in machine learning as a positive definite kernel and can be efficiently computed via…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-02 Ping Li , Cun-Hui Zhang