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Time-to-event endpoints are central to evaluate treatment efficacy across many disease areas. Many trial protocols include interim analyses within group-sequential designs that control type I error via spending functions or boundary…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-19 Edoardo Ratti , Federico L. Perlino , Stefania Galimberti , Maria G. Valsecchi

Statistical analyses of multipopulation studies often use the data to select a particular population as the target of inference. For example, a confidence interval may be constructed for a population only in the event that its sample mean…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-18 Peter Hoff , Surya Tokdar

We study conditions under which treatment effect estimators constructed under the no-interference assumption in randomized experiments are asymptotically normal in the presence of interference. We prove that the standard Horvitz-Thompson…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-03-08 Alex Chin

Effect modification occurs when a covariate alters the relative effectiveness of treatment compared to control. It is widely understood that, when effect modification is present, treatment recommendations may vary by population and by…

Network interference has attracted significant attention in the field of causal inference, encapsulating various sociological behaviors where the treatment assigned to one individual within a network may affect the outcomes of others, such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Zhiheng Zhang , Zichen Wang

The goal of this paper is to provide mathematically rigorous tools for modelling the evolution of a community of interacting individuals. We model the population by a measure space where the measure determines the abundance of individual…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-17 Thomas Cass , Terry Lyons

We develop randomization-based tests for heterogeneous treatment effects in the presence of network interference. Leveraging the exposure mapping framework, we study a broad class of null hypotheses that represent various forms of constant…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-25 Julius Owusu

Assessing the causal effects of interventions on ordinal outcomes is an important objective of many educational and behavioral studies. Under the potential outcomes framework, we can define causal effects as comparisons between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-06 Jiannan Lu , Peng Ding , Tirthankar Dasgupta

People are influenced by the choices of others, a phenomenon observed across contexts in the social and behavioral sciences. Social influence can lock in an initial popularity advantage of an option over a higher quality alternative. Yet…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-08-09 Alexandros Gelastopoulos , Pantelis P. Analytis , Gaël Le Mens , Arnout van de Rijt

Network interference occurs when a unit's outcome depends not only on its own treatment but also on the treatments received by connected units in the network. Experimental designs and analysis methods that ignore such interference can yield…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-04 Xiao Liu , Feifang Hu , Jingfei Zhang

We propose new, optimal methods for analyzing randomized trials, when it is suspected that treatment effects may differ in two predefined subpopulations. Such sub-populations could be defined by a biomarker or risk factor measured at…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-26 Michael Rosenblum , Han Liu , and En-Hsu Yen

We introduce a new coordination problem in distributed computing that we call the population stability problem. A system of agents each with limited memory and communication, as well as the ability to replicate and self-destruct, is…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2018-03-09 Shafi Goldwasser , Rafail Ostrovsky , Alessandra Scafuro , Adam Sealfon

In multivariate pattern analysis of neuroimaging data, 'second-level' inference is often performed by entering classification accuracies into a $t$-test vs chance level across subjects. We argue that while the random-effects analysis…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2016-08-11 Carsten Allefeld , Kai Görgen , John-Dylan Haynes

Randomized experiments are the "gold standard" for estimating causal effects, yet often in practice, chance imbalances exist in covariate distributions between treatment groups. If covariate data are available before units are exposed to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-25 Kari Lock Morgan , Donald B. Rubin

This paper studies the estimation and inference of treatment effects in panel data settings when treatments change dynamically over time. We propose a balancing method that allows for (i) treatments to be assigned dynamically over time…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-24 Davide Viviano , Jelena Bradic

In this work, we investigate the population dynamics of tumor cells under therapeutic pressure. Although drug treatment initially induces a reduction in tumor burden, treatment failure frequently occurs over time due to the emergence of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-02 Kevin Leder , Zicheng Wang , Xuanming Zhang

Variance reduction for causal inference in the presence of network interference is often achieved through either outcome modeling, typically analyzed under unit-randomized Bernoulli designs, or clustered experimental designs, typically…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-19 Matthew Eichhorn , Samir Khan , Johan Ugander , Christina Lee Yu

Population protocols are a model for distributed computing that is focused on simplicity and robustness. A system of $n$ identical agents (finite state machines) performs a global task like electing a unique leader or determining the…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2020-08-24 Petra Berenbrink , Robert Elsässer , Tom Friedetzky , Dominik Kaaser , Peter Kling , Tomasz Radzik

We propose a variation of the standard genetic algorithm that incorporates social interaction between the individuals in the population. Our goal is to understand the evolutionary role of social systems and its possible application as a…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2010-07-05 Rafeal Lahoz-Beltra , Gabriela Ochoa , Uwe Aickelin

Randomized experiments often need to be stopped prematurely due to the treatment having an unintended harmful effect. Existing methods that determine when to stop an experiment early are typically applied to the data in aggregate and do not…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-31 Hammaad Adam , Fan Yin , Huibin , Hu , Neil Tenenholtz , Lorin Crawford , Lester Mackey , Allison Koenecke
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