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Existing methods for diagnosing predictability in climate indices often make a number of unjustified assumptions about the climate system that can lead to misleading conclusions. We present a flexible family of state-space models capable of…

Applications · Statistics 2018-07-10 Philip G. Sansom , David B. Stephenson , Daniel B. Williamson

We numerically study the nonlinear interactions of high-frequency circularly polarized electromagnetic (EM) waves and low-frequency electron-acoustic (EA) density perturbations driven by the EM wave ponderomotive force in relativistic…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2026-01-27 S. Das Adhikary , A. P. Misra

We develop a theory of three-dimensional slow Rossby waves in rotating spherical density stratified convection. The Rossby waves with frequencies which are much smaller than the rotating frequency, are excited by a non-axisymmetric…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2017-09-20 T. Elperin , N. Kleeorin , I. Rogachevskii

With phase space analysis approach, we investigate thoroughly the self-trapping phenomenon for two weakly coupled Bose-Einstein condensates (BEC) in a symmetric double-well potential. We identify two kinds of self-trapping by their…

Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics · Physics 2009-11-11 Guan-Fang Wang , Li-Bin Fu , Jie Liu

Chaotic scattering in open Hamiltonian systems is a topic of fundamental interest in physics, which has been mainly studied in the purely conservative case. However, the effect of weak perturbations in this kind of systems has been an…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2018-12-19 Alexandre R. Nieto , Jesús M. Seoane , J. E. Alvarellos , Miguel A. F. Sanjuán

The last glacial period was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The frequency of DO events varied in time, supposedly because of changes in background climate conditions. Here, the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-07-26 Takahito Mitsui , Michel Crucifix

Low-order frequency response models for power systems have a decades-long history in optimization and control problems such as unit commitment, economic dispatch, and wide-area control. With a few exceptions, these models are built upon the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-11-10 Marena Trujillo , Amir Sajadi , Bri-Mathias Hodge

Observations from the RAPID array near 26.5$^\circ$N indicate a linear decline in the AMOC over the past two decades, linked to contrasting boundary changes: a weakening western boundary contribution partly compensated by strengthening at…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-29 Qianjiang Xing , Shane Elipot , William E. Johns , Bablu Sinha , Jules Kajtar , Adam T. Blaker , Tillys Petit , Ben I. Moat , David A. Smeed

Tropical monsoons play a critical role in shaping regional and global climate systems, with profound ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, their long-term prediction remains challenging due to the complex interplay of regional…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-02-24 Guanghao Ran , Jun Meng , Jingfang Fan

Accurate ultra-short-term wind power forecasting is critical for grid dispatch and reserve management, yet remains challenging due to the non-stationary, condition-dependent nature of wind generation. Meteorological exogenous variables…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Cao Yuan , Junjun Wang

The dispersion properties of elliptically polarized electromagnetic (EM) waves in a magnetized electron-positron-pair (EP-pair) plasma are studied with the effects of particle dispersion associated with the Bohm potential, the Fermi…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2016-07-12 M. Shahmansouri , A. P. Misra

The stability properties of intermediate-order climate models are investigated by computing their Lyapunov exponents (LEs). The two models considered are PUMA (Portable University Model of the Atmosphere), a primitive-equation simple…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2018-06-07 Lesley De Cruz , Sebastian Schubert , Jonathan Demaeyer , Valerio Lucarini , Stéphane Vannitsem

We examine the effect of short unstable periodic orbits on wavefunction statistics in a classically chaotic system, and find that the tail of the wavefunction intensity distribution in phase space is dominated by scarring associated with…

chao-dyn · Physics 2009-08-14 L. Kaplan

Extreme multistability (EM) is characterized by the emergence of infinitely many coexisting attractors or continuous families of stable states in dynamical systems. EM implies complex and hardly predictable asymptotic dynamical behavior. We…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2023-09-28 Zhen Su , Jürgen Kurths , Yaru Liu , Serhiy Yanchuk

Parametric instabilities are a known feature of periodically driven dynamic systems; at particular frequencies and amplitudes of the driving modulation, the system's quasi-periodic response undergoes a frequency lock-in, leading to a…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2026-05-22 Helen E. Read , Giada Risso , Adel Djellouli , Katia Bertoldi , Arnaud Lazarus

We present a novel scheme for the appearance of Stochastic Resonance when the dynamics of a Brownian particle takes place in a confined medium. The presence of uneven boundaries, giving rise to an entropic contribution to the potential, may…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 P. S. Burada , G. Schmid , D. Reguera , M. H. Vainstein , J. M. Rubi , P. Hanggi

Experiments in engineering are typically conducted in controlled environments where parameters can be set to any desired value. This assumes that the same applies in a real-world setting -- an assumption that is often incorrect as many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Mike Diessner , Kevin J. Wilson , Richard D. Whalley

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a semi-periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences interannual variability in regional hydrology across the world…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-01-24 Yumin Liu , Kate Duffy , Jennifer G. Dy , Auroop R. Ganguly

Global weather patterns and regimes are heavily influenced by the dominant modes of Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, including the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability (TPDV), North…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-08-13 Kyle J. C. Hall , Maria J. Molina , Emily F. Wisinski , Gerald A. Meehl , Antonietta Capotondi

The subpolar oceans are characterized by intense storm forcing and complex littoral topography. Submesoscale frontal instabilities are significant sources of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) in these regions. However, criteria for identifying…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-13 Laur Ferris , Donglai Gong