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Models of global climate phenomena of low to intermediate complexity are very useful for providing an understanding at a conceptual level. An important aspect of such models is the presence of a number of feedback loops that feature…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-02-02 Bernd Krauskopf , Jan Sieber

We consider a delay differential equation (DDE) model for El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The model combines two key mechanisms that participate in ENSO dynamics: delayed negative feedback and seasonal forcing. We perform…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-01-29 Michael Ghil , Ilya Zaliapin , Sylvester Thompson

The Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is modelled with the help of a simple model representing a classical damped oscillator forced by external forcing. Eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the mean equatorial Pacific thermocline…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Vladimir N. Stepanov

El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most predominant interannual variability in the tropics, significantly impacting global weather and climate. In this paper, a framework of low-order conceptual models for the ENSO is…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-08-09 Nan Chen , Yinling Zhang

El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's strongest source of interannual climate variability. Although its center of action is in the tropical Pacific, it has significant influences on the climate at the planetary scale. ENSO is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-05 Gian Luca Eusebi Borzelli , Cosimo Enrico Carniel , Sandro Carniel , Mauro Sclavo

We consider a highly idealized model for El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, as introduced in an earlier paper. The model is governed by a delay differential equation for sea surface temperature in the Tropical Pacific, and it…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2011-01-13 Ilya Zaliapin , Michael Ghil

The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) and pressure across the equatorial Pacific Ocean with a period of 2-7 years. As the largest mode of interannual variability on Earth, ENSO shapes…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-05 PJ Tuckman , Da Yang

The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of interannual variability in the coupled equatorial Pacific coupled atmosphere/ocean system. El Ni\~no describes a state in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific increase…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-10-10 John Guckenheimer , Axel Timmermann , Henk Dijkstra , Andrew Roberts

The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of interannual variability in the coupled equatorial ocean/atmosphere Pacific. El Ni\~no describes a state in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific increase and upwelling…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-07-12 John Guckenheimer , Andrew Roberts , Axel Timmermann , Henk Dijkstra

The El Ni{~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts profound influence on global climate variability, yet its prediction remains a grand challenge. Recent advances in deep learning have significantly improved forecasting skill, but the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Yanhai Gan , Yipeng Chen , Ning Li , Xingguo Liu , Junyu Dong , Xianyao Chen

Very strong El Ni\~no events occur sporadically every 10-20 years. The origin of this bursting behavior still remains elusive. Using a simplified 3-dimensional dynamical model of the tropical Pacific climate system, which captures the El…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-05-04 Andrew Roberts , Esther Widiasih , Axel Timmermann , Christopher K. R. T. Jones , John Guckenheimer

The emergence of oscillations in models of the El-Ni\~no effect is of utmost relevance. Here we investigate a coupled nonlinear delay differential system modeling theEl-Ni\~no/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which arises through…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-05-24 Chandrakala Meena , Shweta Kumari , Akansha Sharma , Sudeshna Sinha

Teleconnections between the tropical and the extratropical climates are often considered as a potential source of long-term predictability at seasonal to decadal time scales in the extratropics. This claim is taken up in the present work by…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-10-17 Stephane Vannitsem

El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diversity is characterized based on the longitudinal location of maximum sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and amplitude in the tropical Pacific, as Central Pacific (CP) events are typically…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-05-15 Jakob Schlör , Felix Strnad , Antonietta Capotondi , Bedartha Goswami

El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent interannual climate variability in the tropics and exhibits diverse features in spatiotemporal patterns. In this paper, a simple multiscale intermediate coupled stochastic model is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-06-15 Nan Chen , Xianghui Fang

Satellite and ground-based observations are used to explore the composite oceanic - atmospheric link known as the El Ni\~no/La Ni\~na Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which is closely associated with extreme weather events (e.g. heat…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-08-22 Costas A. Varotsos , Arthur P. Cracknell

In this article, we present a mathematical theory of the Walker circulation of the large-scale atmosphere over the tropics. This study leads to a new metastable state oscillation theory for the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a typical…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2010-05-14 Tian Ma , Shouhong Wang

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important phenomena in climate. By studying the fluctuations of surface air temperature within one year between 1979-01-01 and 2016-12-31 of the region (30S-30N, 0E-360E) with…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-03-31 Yongwen Zhang , Jingfang Fan , Xiaoteng Li , Wenqi Liu , Xiaosong Chen

The El Ni\~no phenomenon, synonymously El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is an anomalous climatic oscillation in the Equatorial Pacific that occurs once every 3-8 years. It affects the earth's climate on a global scale. Whether it is a…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 Debabrata Panja , Gerrit Burgers

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are two dominant modes of tropical climate variability, each with profound global weather impacts. While their individual dynamics have been widely studied,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-07-22 Yinling Zhang , Nan Chen , Charlotte Moser
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