Related papers: State Heterogeneity Analysis of Financial Volatili…
This paper provides an insight to the time-varying dynamics of the shape of the distribution of financial return series by proposing an exponential weighted moving average model that jointly estimates volatility, skewness and kurtosis over…
Volatility for financial assets returns can be used to gauge the risk for financial market. We propose a deep stochastic volatility model (DSVM) based on the framework of deep latent variable models. It uses flexible deep learning models to…
We examine the relationship between trading volumes, number of transactions, and volatility using daily stock data of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Following the mixture of distributions hypothesis, we use trading volumes and the number of…
With the increasing volume of high-frequency data in the information age, both challenges and opportunities arise in the prediction of stock volatility. On one hand, the outcome of prediction using tradition method combining stock technical…
It is common for long financial time series to exhibit gradual change in the unconditional volatility. We propose a new model that captures this type of nonstationarity in a parsimonious way. The model augments the volatility equation of a…
This paper offers a new approach to modeling and forecasting of nonstationary time series with applications to volatility modeling for financial data. The approach is based on the assumption of local homogeneity: for every time point, there…
Systemic liquidity risk, defined by the IMF as "the risk of simultaneous liquidity difficulties at multiple financial institutions", is a key topic in macroprudential policy and financial stress analysis. Specialized models to simulate…
This paper empirically assesses predictions of Goodwin's model of cyclical growth regarding demand and distributive regimes when integrating the real and financial sectors. In addition, it evaluates how financial and employment shocks…
Working on different aspects of algorithmic trading we empirically discovered a new market invariant. It links together the volatility of the instrument with its traded volume, the average spread and the volume in the order book. The…
Volatility forecasting in financial markets is a topic that has received more attention from scholars. In this paper, we propose a new volatility forecasting model that combines the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model with a family of…
We propose a novel framework for modeling time-varying persistence in economic time series, allowing for smoothly evolving heterogeneity in shock dynamics. We leverage localized regression techniques to flexibly identify changes in…
We present an empirical study of the subordination hypothesis for a stochastic time series of a stock price. The fluctuating rate of trading is identified with the stochastic variance of the stock price, as in the continuous-time random…
Vector autoregression is an essential tool in empirical macroeconomics and finance for understanding the dynamic interdependencies among multivariate time series. In this study, we expand the scope of vector autoregression by incorporating…
Although stochastic volatility and GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) models have successfully described the volatility dynamics of univariate asset returns, extending them to the multivariate models with…
In an asset return series there is a conditional asymmetric dependence between current return and past volatility depending on the current return's sign. To take into account the conditional asymmetry, we introduce new models for asset…
This work develops change-point methods for statistics of high-frequency data. The main interest is in the volatility of an It\^{o} semi-martingale, the latter being discretely observed over a fixed time horizon. We construct a…
We propose a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model for mixed-frequency data. Our model is based on the mean-adjusted parametrization of the VAR and allows for an explicit prior on the 'steady states' (unconditional means) of the…
We consider parametric inference for an ergodic and stationary diffusion process, when the data are high-frequency observations of the integral of the diffusion process. Such data are obtained via certain measurement devices, or if…
This paper investigates how similarity in the informational representation of market states among Artificial Intelligence (AI) trading agents can generate systemic instability in financial markets. We construct a structural multi-agent…
We propose a nonparametric estimator of the empirical distribution function (EDF) of the latent spot variance of the log-price of a financial asset. We show that over a fixed time span our realized EDF (or REDF) -- inferred from noisy…