Related papers: General Bayesian time-varying parameter VARs for p…
In prediction problems with more predictors than observations, it can sometimes be helpful to use a joint probability model, $\pi(Y,X)$, rather than a purely conditional model, $\pi(Y \mid X)$, where $Y$ is a scalar response variable and…
Researchers increasingly wish to estimate time-varying parameter (TVP) regressions which involve a large number of explanatory variables. Including prior information to mitigate over-parameterization concerns has led to many using Bayesian…
We consider a class of systems with time-varying parameters, which are written as linear regressions with bounded disturbances. The task is to estimate such parameters under the condition that the regressor is finitely exciting (FE).…
A Bayesian procedure is developed for multivariate stochastic volatility, using state space models. An autoregressive model for the log-returns is employed. We generalize the inverted Wishart distribution to allow for different correlation…
Motivated by the application to German interest rates, we propose a timevarying autoregressive model for short and long term prediction of time series that exhibit a temporary non-stationary behavior but are assumed to mean revert in the…
To comprehend complex systems with multiple states, it is imperative to reveal the identity of these states by system outputs. Nevertheless, the mathematical models describing these systems often exhibit nonlinearity so that render the…
This paper develops a methodology for approximating the posterior first two moments of the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. Partially specified probability models, which are defined only by specifying means and variances, are…
We propose a two stage procedure for the estimation of the parameters of a fairly general, continuous-time stochastic volatility. An important ingredient of the proposed method is the Cuchiero-Teichmann volatility estimator, which is based…
We provide new results showing identification of a large class of fixed-T panel models, where the response variable is an unknown, weakly monotone, time-varying transformation of a latent linear index of fixed effects, regressors, and an…
Modeling the time-varying covariance structures of high-dimensional variables is critical across diverse scientific and industrial applications; however, existing approaches exhibit notable limitations in either modeling flexibility or…
Using a proper model to characterize a time series is crucial in making accurate predictions. In this work we use time-varying autoregressive process (TVAR) to describe non-stationary time series and model it as a mixture of multiple stable…
This article considers a stable vector autoregressive (VAR) model and investigates return predictability in a Bayesian context. The VAR system comprises asset returns and the dividend-price ratio as proposed in Cochrane (2008), and allows…
We develop a non-parametric multivariate time series model that remains agnostic on the precise relationship between a (possibly) large set of macroeconomic time series and their lagged values. The main building block of our model is a…
Certain theoretical aspects of vector autoregression (VAR) as tools to model economic time series are revised, in particular their capacity to include both short term and long term information. The VAR model, in its error correction form,…
We describe a time evolution algorithm for quantum spin chains whose Hamiltonians are composed of an infinite uniform left and right bulk part, and an arbitrary finite region in between. The left and right bulk parts are allowed to be…
Adaptive time series forecasting is essential for prediction under regime changes. Several classical methods assume linear Gaussian state space model (LGSSM) with variances constant in time. However, there are many real-world processes that…
Inspired by applications in sports where the skill of players or teams competing against each other varies over time, we propose a probabilistic model of pairwise-comparison outcomes that can capture a wide range of time dynamics. We…
In this paper we estimate the dynamic parameters of a time-varying coefficient model through radial kernel functions in the context of a longitudinal study. Our proposal is based on a linear combination of weighted kernel functions…
The paper proposes an adaptive observer of the state vector of a nonlinear time varying system based on measurements of the output variable. The problem is solved under the assumption that the control matrix (vector) and the nonlinear…
We develop flexible methods of deriving variational inference for models with complex latent variable structure. By splitting the variables in these models into "global" parameters and "local" latent variables, we define a class of…