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Recently some papers, such as Aban, Meerschaert and Panorska (2006), Nuyts (2010) and Clark (2013), have drawn attention to possible truncation in Pareto tail modelling. Sometimes natural upper bounds exist that truncate the probability…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-05-21 Jan Beirlant , Isabel Fraga Alves , Ivette Gomes

Distribution regression seeks to estimate the conditional distribution of a multivariate response given a continuous covariate. This approach offers a more complete characterization of dependence than traditional regression methods.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-10 Rong Tang , Yun Yang

We study high-dimensional signal recovery from non-linear measurements with design vectors having elliptically symmetric distribution. Special attention is devoted to the situation when the unknown signal belongs to a set of low statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-14 Larry Goldstein , Stanislav Minsker , Xiaohan Wei

We present new estimators of the mean of a real valued random variable, based on PAC-Bayesian iterative truncation. We analyze the non-asymptotic minimax properties of the deviations of estimators for distributions having either a bounded…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-30 Olivier Catoni

Estimating linear regression using least squares and reporting robust standard errors is very common in financial economics, and indeed, much of the social sciences and elsewhere. For thick tailed predictors under heteroskedasticity this…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-17 Neil Shephard

In this paper, we propose an estimator of the second-order parameter of randomly right-truncated Pareto-type distributions data and establish its consistency and asymptotic normality. Moreover, we derive an asymptotically unbiased estimator…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-21 Nawel Haouas , Abdelhakim Necir , Brahim Brahimi

Forecasting multivariate time series is a computationally intensive task challenged by extreme or redundant samples. Recent resampling methods aim to increase training efficiency by reweighting samples based on their running losses.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-21 Jiang You , Arben Cela , René Natowicz , Jacob Ouanounou , Patrick Siarry

`Distribution regression' refers to the situation where a response Y depends on a covariate P where P is a probability distribution. The model is Y=f(P) + mu where f is an unknown regression function and mu is a random error. Typically, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-02-04 Barnabas Poczos , Alessandro Rinaldo , Aarti Singh , Larry Wasserman

We consider (robust) inference in the context of a factor model for tensor-valued sequences. We study the consistency of the estimated common factors and loadings space when using estimators based on minimising quadratic loss functions.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-29 Matteo Barigozzi , Yong He , Lingxiao Li , Lorenzo Trapani

We study the problem of heavy-tailed mean estimation in settings where the variance of the data-generating distribution does not exist. Concretely, given a sample $\mathbf{X} = \{X_i\}_{i = 1}^n$ from a distribution $\mathcal{D}$ over…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-10 Yeshwanth Cherapanamjeri , Nilesh Tripuraneni , Peter L. Bartlett , Michael I. Jordan

Extreme events and the heavy tail distributions driven by them are ubiquitous in various scientific, engineering and financial research. They are typically associated with stochastic instability caused by hidden unresolved processes.…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-22 Andrew J. Majda , Xin T. Tong

In linear regression we wish to estimate the optimum linear least squares predictor for a distribution over $d$-dimensional input points and real-valued responses, based on a small sample. Under standard random design analysis, where the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-08 Michał Dereziński , Manfred K. Warmuth , Daniel Hsu

We study the performance of the Least Squares Estimator (LSE) in a general nonparametric regression model, when the errors are independent of the covariates but may only have a $p$-th moment ($p\geq 1$). In such a heavy-tailed regression…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-17 Qiyang Han , Jon A. Wellner

We consider the problem of sparsity-constrained $M$-estimation when both explanatory and response variables have heavy tails (bounded 4-th moments), or a fraction of arbitrary corruptions. We focus on the $k$-sparse, high-dimensional regime…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-31 Liu Liu , Tianyang Li , Constantine Caramanis

This paper introduces a flexible framework for the estimation of the conditional tail index of heavy tailed distributions. In this framework, the tail index is computed from an auxiliary linear regression model that facilitates estimation…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-23 João Nicolau , Paulo M. M. Rodrigues

It is well-known that trimmed sample means are robust against heavy tails and data contamination. This paper analyzes the performance of trimmed means and related methods in two novel contexts. The first one consists of estimating…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-03 Roberto I. Oliveira , Lucas Resende

The perspective of developing trustworthy AI for critical applications in science and engineering requires machine learning techniques that are capable of estimating their own uncertainty. In the context of regression, instead of estimating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Quentin Duchemin , Guillaume Obozinski

We consider the problem of linear fitting of noisy data in the case of broad (say $\alpha$-stable) distributions of random impacts ("noise"), which can lack even the first moment. This situation, common in statistical physics of small…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-05-27 Eugene B. Postnikov , Igor M. Sokolov

In this paper, we propose a covariate-adjusted nonlinear regression model. In this model, both the response and predictors can only be observed after being distorted by some multiplicative factors. Because of nonlinearity, existing methods…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-14 Xia Cui , Wensheng Guo , Lu Lin , Lixing Zhu

Selective prediction, where a model has the option to abstain from making a decision, is crucial for machine learning applications in which mistakes are costly. In this work, we focus on distributional regression and introduce a framework…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-01 Ahmed Zaoui , Clément Dombry