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Uncertainty estimates must be calibrated (i.e., accurate) and sharp (i.e., informative) in order to be useful. This has motivated a variety of methods for recalibration, which use held-out data to turn an uncalibrated model into a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-06 Charles Marx , Shengjia Zhao , Willie Neiswanger , Stefano Ermon

In recent years, deep neural networks (DNNs) have shown competitive results in many fields. Despite this success, they often suffer from poor calibration, especially in safety-critical scenarios such as autonomous driving and healthcare,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-13 Jiani Ni , He Zhao , Yibo Yang , Dandan Guo

The wide-spread adoption of representation learning technologies in clinical decision making strongly emphasizes the need for characterizing model reliability and enabling rigorous introspection of model behavior. While the former need is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-01 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Prasanna Sattigeri , Deepta Rajan , Bindya Venkatesh

Uncertainty is a fundamental aspect of real-world scenarios, where perfect information is rarely available. Humans naturally develop complex internal models to navigate incomplete data and effectively respond to unforeseen or partially…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Wenhao Liang , Chang Dong , Liangwei Zheng , Wei Zhang , Weitong Chen

Most calibration methods operate at the logit level, implicitly assuming that miscalibration can be corrected without changing the underlying representation. We challenge this assumption and propose \textbf{Calibration Attention (CalAttn)},…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Wenhao Liang , Wei Emma Zhang , Lin Yue , Miao Xu , Mingyu Guo , Olaf Maennel , Weitong Chen

Reachability computations that rely on learned or estimated models require calibration in order to uphold confidence about their guarantees. Calibration generally involves sampling scenarios inside the reachable set. However, producing…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-27 Sampada Deglurkar , Ebonye Smith , Jingqi Li , Claire J. Tomlin

Probability calibration for deep models is highly desirable in safety-critical applications such as medical imaging. It makes output probabilities of deep networks interpretable, by aligning prediction probability with the actual accuracy…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-09-16 Cheng Ouyang , Shuo Wang , Chen Chen , Zeju Li , Wenjia Bai , Bernhard Kainz , Daniel Rueckert

Despite their impressive predictive performance, GNNs often exhibit poor confidence calibration, i.e., their predicted confidence scores do not accurately reflect true correctness likelihood. This issue raises concerns about their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Yilong Wang , Jiahao Zhang , Tianxiang Zhao , Suhang Wang

Deep neural networks have been shown to be highly miscalibrated. often they tend to be overconfident in their predictions. It poses a significant challenge for safety-critical systems to utilise deep neural networks (DNNs), reliably. Many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-05 Aditya Singh , Alessandro Bay , Biswa Sengupta , Andrea Mirabile

Despite the power of deep neural networks for a wide range of tasks, an overconfident prediction issue has limited their practical use in many safety-critical applications. Many recent works have been proposed to mitigate this issue, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-14 Jooyoung Moon , Jihyo Kim , Younghak Shin , Sangheum Hwang

Calibrating neural networks is of utmost importance when employing them in safety-critical applications where the downstream decision making depends on the predicted probabilities. Measuring calibration error amounts to comparing two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-30 Kartik Gupta , Amir Rahimi , Thalaiyasingam Ajanthan , Thomas Mensink , Cristian Sminchisescu , Richard Hartley

The efficient validation of quantum devices is critical for emerging technological applications. In a wide class of use-cases the precise engineering of a Hamiltonian is required both for the implementation of gate-based quantum information…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-11-20 Agnes Valenti , Evert van Nieuwenburg , Sebastian Huber , Eliska Greplova

Calibrating deep learning models to yield uncertainty-aware predictions is crucial as deep neural networks get increasingly deployed in safety-critical applications. While existing post-hoc calibration methods achieve impressive results on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Christian Tomani , Futa Waseda , Yuesong Shen , Daniel Cremers

Confidence calibration is an emerging challenge in real-world decision systems based on foundations models when used for downstream vision classification tasks. Due to various reasons exposed, logit scores on the CLIP head remain large…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Behraj Khan , Tahir Syed

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have enabled astounding progress in several vision-based problems. Despite showing high predictive accuracy, recently, several works have revealed that they tend to provide overconfident predictions and thus are…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Muhammad Akhtar Munir , Muhammad Haris Khan , Salman Khan , Fahad Shahbaz Khan

Existing calibration algorithms address the problem of covariate shift via unsupervised domain adaptation. However, these methods suffer from the following limitations: 1) they require unlabeled data from the target domain, which may not be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-19 Yunye Gong , Xiao Lin , Yi Yao , Thomas G. Dietterich , Ajay Divakaran , Melinda Gervasio

This paper provides both an introduction to and a detailed overview of the principles and practice of classifier calibration. A well-calibrated classifier correctly quantifies the level of uncertainty or confidence associated with its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-16 Telmo Silva Filho , Hao Song , Miquel Perello-Nieto , Raul Santos-Rodriguez , Meelis Kull , Peter Flach

The prediction accuracy of machine learning methods is steadily increasing, but the calibration of their uncertainty predictions poses a significant challenge. Numerous works focus on obtaining well-calibrated predictive models, but less is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-07 Donghwan Lee , Xinmeng Huang , Hamed Hassani , Edgar Dobriban

Deep clustering has exhibited remarkable performance; however, the over confidence problem, i.e., the estimated confidence for a sample belonging to a particular cluster greatly exceeds its actual prediction accuracy, has been over looked…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-03 Yuheng Jia , Jianhong Cheng , Hui Liu , Junhui Hou

We propose a simple and effective method to estimate the uncertainty of closed-source deep neural network image classification models. Given a base image, our method creates multiple transformed versions and uses them to query the top-1…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-05-24 Konstantinos Pitas , Julyan Arbel