Related papers: Predicting high-dimensional heterogeneous time ser…
We describe a Markov latent state space (MLSS) model, where the latent state distribution is a decaying mixture over multiple past states. We present a simple sampling algorithm that allows to approximate such high-order MLSS with fixed…
The Extended Long Short-Term Memory (xLSTM) network has demonstrated strong capability in modeling complex long-term dependencies in time series data. Despite its success, the deterministic architecture of xLSTM limits its representational…
We use standard deep neural networks to classify univariate time series generated by discrete and continuous dynamical systems based on their chaotic or non-chaotic behaviour. Our approach to circumvent the lack of precise models for some…
Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) are often used for analyzing correlated non-Gaussian data. The likelihood function in a GLMM is available only as a high dimensional integral, and thus closed-form inference and prediction are not…
Gaussian state space models have been used for decades as generative models of sequential data. They admit an intuitive probabilistic interpretation, have a simple functional form, and enjoy widespread adoption. We introduce a unified…
Models of dynamical systems based on predictive state representations (PSRs) are defined strictly in terms of observable quantities, in contrast with traditional models (such as Hidden Markov Models) that use latent variables or statespace…
Linear Dynamical System (LDS) is an elegant mathematical framework for modeling and learning multivariate time series. However, in general, it is difficult to set the dimension of its hidden state space. A small number of hidden states may…
This research examines the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in predicting time series, with a specific focus on the LLMTIME model. Despite the established effectiveness of LLMs in tasks such as text generation, language translation, and…
Spatio-temporal forecasting plays a crucial role in various sectors such as transportation systems, logistics, and supply chain management. However, existing methods are limited by their ability to handle large, complex datasets. To…
Reliable prediction of large chaotic sytems in the short to middle time range is of interest in a number of fields, including climate, ecology, seismology, and economics. In this paper, results from chaos theory, and statistical theory are…
In this paper we penetrate and extend the notion of local constancy in graphical models that has been introduced by Honorio et al. (2009). We propose Neighborhood-Fused Lasso, a method for model selection in high-dimensional graphical…
With the advent of Big Data, nowadays in many applications databases containing large quantities of similar time series are available. Forecasting time series in these domains with traditional univariate forecasting procedures leaves great…
Kernel Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) is a popular method for flexibly estimating models that may have complex relationships between variables. However, its usefulness to many researchers is limited for two reasons. First, existing…
This research proposes a flexible Bayesian extension of the composite Gaussian process (CGP) model of Ba and Joseph (2012) for predicting (stationary or) non-stationary $y(\mathbf{x})$. The CGP generalizes the regression plus stationary…
Generalized synchronization (GS) describes a state in which two coupled dynamical systems exhibit a functional relationship between their variables. GS can be achieved by appropriately designing the coupling to constrain the dynamics onto…
While classical time series forecasting considers individual time series in isolation, recent advances based on deep learning showed that jointly learning from a large pool of related time series can boost the forecasting accuracy. However,…
The nonlinear nature of chaotic systems results in extreme sensitivity to initial conditions and highly intricate dynamical behaviors, posing fundamental challenges for accurately predicting their evolution. To overcome the limitation that…
We examine the efficiency of Recurrent Neural Networks in forecasting the spatiotemporal dynamics of high dimensional and reduced order complex systems using Reservoir Computing (RC) and Backpropagation through time (BPTT) for gated network…
Stochastic Gumbel graph networks are proposed to learn high-dimensional time series, where the observed dimensions are often spatially correlated. To that end, the observed randomness and spatial-correlations are captured by learning the…
We show how a recently introduced statistics [Patil et al, Phys. Rev. Lett. 81 5878 (2001)] provides a direct relationship between dimension and predictability in spatiotemporal chaotic systems. Regions of low dimension are identified as…