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The ideas of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty are widely used to reason about the probabilistic predictions of machine-learning models. We identify incoherence in existing discussions of these ideas and suggest this stems from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-19 Freddie Bickford Smith , Jannik Kossen , Eleanor Trollope , Mark van der Wilk , Adam Foster , Tom Rainforth

Random forests are an ensemble method relevant for many problems, such as regression or classification. They are popular due to their good predictive performance (compared to, e.g., decision trees) requiring only minimal tuning of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-20 Nikolaus Umlauf , Nadja Klein

There are two main opposing schools of statistical reasoning, Frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Until recent days, the frequentist or classical approach has dominated the scientific research, but Bayesianism has reappeared with a strong…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Jordi Vallverdú

Data scientists and statisticians are often at odds when determining the best approach, machine learning or statistical modeling, to solve an analytics challenge. However, machine learning and statistical modeling are more cousins than…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-10 Michele Bennett , Karin Hayes , Ewa J. Kleczyk , Rajesh Mehta

The intersection of artificial intelligence and psychological science has experienced remarkable growth, with annual publications expanding from 859 papers in 2000 to 29,979 by 2025. However, this rapid evolution has created methodological…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Huiyao Chen , Ruimeng Liu , Yan Luo , Jiawen Zhang , Meishan Zhang , Baotian Hu , Min Zhang

Using frequency distributions of daily closing price time series of several financial market indexes, we investigate whether the bias away from an equiprobable sequence distribution found in the data, predicted by algorithmic information…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2010-08-17 Hector Zenil , Jean-Paul Delahaye

Tree-based machine learning models, such as decision trees and random forests, have been hugely successful in classification tasks primarily because of their predictive power in supervised learning tasks and ease of interpretation. Despite…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-08 Tanmay Surve , Romila Pradhan

Research at the intersection of machine learning, programming languages, and software engineering has recently taken important steps in proposing learnable probabilistic models of source code that exploit code's abundance of patterns. In…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2018-05-08 Miltiadis Allamanis , Earl T. Barr , Premkumar Devanbu , Charles Sutton

Random Forests have been extensively used in regression and classification, inspiring the development of various forest-based methods. Among these, Mondrian Forests, derived from the Mondrian process, mark a significant advancement.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-28 Haoran Zhan , Jingli Wang , Yingcun Xia

In recent times, neural networks have become a powerful tool for the analysis of complex and abstract data models. However, their introduction intrinsically increases our uncertainty about which features of the analysis are model-related…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-09 Tom Charnock , Laurence Perreault-Levasseur , François Lanusse

Latent space models have been widely adopted in modeling network data. Developing statistical inference for estimated model parameters enables quantifying associated uncertainty and is pivotal for downstream tasks. Despite recent progress…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Yuang Tian , Jiajin Sun , Yinqiu He

Beginning in the 1970s, statistician-cum-logician Per Martin-L\"of wrote a series of papers developing what became Martin-L\"of type theory, realizing a system where the distinction between mathematics and programming disappears. Inspired…

Computation · Statistics 2025-10-14 Bradley Saul

Adapting machine learning algorithms to better handle the presence of clusters or batch effects within training datasets is important across a wide variety of biological applications. This article considers the effect of ensembling Random…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-01 Maya Ramchandran , Rajarshi Mukherjee , Giovanni Parmigiani

Artificial intelligence (AI) systems hold great promise for advancing various scientific disciplines, and are increasingly used in real-world applications. Despite their remarkable progress, further capabilities are expected in order to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-12-05 Drago Plecko , Patrik Okanovic , Shreyas Havaldar , Torsten Hoefler , Elias Bareinboim

Clustering is a crucial task in various domains of knowledge, including medicine, epidemiology, genomics, environmental science, economics, and visual sciences, among others. Methodologies for inferring the number of clusters have often…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-26 Clara Grazian

We propose an algorithm named best-scored random forest for binary classification problems. The terminology "best-scored" means to select the one with the best empirical performance out of a certain number of purely random tree candidates…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-28 Hanyuan Hang , Xiaoyu Liu , Ingo Steinwart

Empirical studies of graphs have contributed enormously to our understanding of complex systems. Known today as network science, what was originally a theoretical study of graphs has grown into a more scientific exploration of communities…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2020-01-01 Ryan E. Langendorf , Debra S. Goldberg

Algorithms increasingly serve as information mediators--from social media feeds and targeted advertising to the increasing ubiquity of LLMs. This engenders a joint process where agents combine private, algorithmically-mediated signals with…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-06 Raghu Arghal , Kevin He , Shirin Saeedi Bidokhti , Saswati Sarkar

We evaluate the folk wisdom that algorithmic decision rules trained on data produced by biased human decision-makers necessarily reflect this bias. We consider a setting where training labels are only generated if a biased decision-maker…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-22 Ashesh Rambachan , Jonathan Roth

Random forest regression is a powerful non-parametric method that adapts to local data characteristics through data-driven partitioning, making it effective across diverse application domains. However, the piecewise constant nature of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Ziyi Liu , Phuc Luong , Mario Boley , Daniel F. Schmidt