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Related papers: Semiparametric counterfactual density estimation

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Difference-in-differences (DID) approaches are widely used for estimating causal effects with observational data before and after an intervention. DID traditionally estimates the average treatment effect among the treated after making a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Julia C. Thome , Andrew J. Spieker , Peter F. Rebeiro , Chun Li , Tong Li , Bryan E. Shepherd

In this article, we aim to provide a general and complete understanding of semi-supervised (SS) causal inference for treatment effects. Specifically, we consider two such estimands: (a) the average treatment effect and (b) the quantile…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-15 Abhishek Chakrabortty , Guorong Dai

We develop a general framework for the identification of counterfactual parameters in a class of nonlinear semiparametric panel models with fixed effects and time effects. Our method applies to models for discrete outcomes (e.g., two-way…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-07 Irene Botosaru , Chris Muris

This paper introduces a simple framework of counterfactual estimation for causal inference with time-series cross-sectional data, in which we estimate the average treatment effect on the treated by directly imputing counterfactual outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-16 Licheng Liu , Ye Wang , Yiqing Xu

This research addresses the challenge of conducting interpretable causal inference between a binary treatment and its resulting outcome when not all confounders are known. Confounders are factors that have an influence on both the treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Sohaib Kiani , Jared Barton , Jon Sushinsky , Lynda Heimbach , Bo Luo

Counterfactual prediction methods are required when a model will be deployed in a setting where treatment policies differ from the setting where the model was developed, or when a model provides predictions under hypothetical interventions…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Christopher B. Boyer , Issa J. Dahabreh , Jon A. Steingrimsson

Data-driven decision making frequently relies on predicting counterfactual outcomes. In practice, researchers commonly train counterfactual prediction models on a source dataset to inform decisions on a possibly separate target population.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-07 Keith Barnatchez , Kevin P. Josey , Rachel C. Nethery , Giovanni Parmigiani

Consider sensitivity analysis to assess the worst-case possible values of counterfactual outcome means and average treatment effects under sequential unmeasured confounding in a longitudinal study with time-varying treatments and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-08-31 Zhiqiang Tan

The cause of failure in cohort studies that involve competing risks is frequently incompletely observed. To address this, several methods have been proposed for the semiparametric proportional cause-specific hazards model under a missing at…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-24 Giorgos Bakoyannis , Ying Zhang , Constantin T. Yiannoutsos

The traditional kernel density estimator of an unknown density is by construction completely nonparametric, in the sense that it has no preferences and will work reasonably well for all shapes. The present paper develops a class of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Nils Lid Hjort , Ingrid Kristine Glad

Accurate estimation of counterfactual outcomes in high-dimensional data is crucial for decision-making and understanding causal relationships and intervention outcomes in various domains, including healthcare, economics, and social…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-31 Jiageng Zhu , Hanchen Xie , Jiazhi Li , Wael Abd-Almageed

No unmeasured confounding is a common assumption when reasoning about counterfactual outcomes, but such an assumption may not be plausible in observational studies. Sensitivity analysis is often employed to assess the robustness of causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-20 Abhinandan Dalal , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

We consider the task of counterfactual estimation from observational imaging data given a known causal structure. In particular, quantifying the causal effect of interventions for high-dimensional data with neural networks remains an open…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-22 Pedro Sanchez , Sotirios A. Tsaftaris

A concentration index, a standardized covariance between a health variable and relative income ranks, is often used to quantify income-related health inequalities. There is a lack of formal approach to study the effect of an exposure, e.g.,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-14 Mohammad Ghasempour , Xavier de Luna , Per E. Gustafsson

In the context of treatment effect estimation, this paper proposes a new methodology to recover the counterfactual distribution when there is a single (or a few) treated unit and possibly a high-dimensional number of potential controls…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-09-08 Ricardo Masini

In many public health problems, an important goal is to identify the effect of some treatment/intervention on the risk of failure for the whole population. A marginal proportional hazards regression model is often used to analyze such an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Donglin Zeng

Counterfactual inference has become a ubiquitous tool in online advertisement, recommendation systems, medical diagnosis, and econometrics. Accurate modeling of outcome distributions associated with different interventions -- known as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-13 Krikamol Muandet , Motonobu Kanagawa , Sorawit Saengkyongam , Sanparith Marukatat

The problem of nonparametric estimation of the conditional density of a response, given a vector of explanatory variables, is classical and of prominent importance in many prediction problems since the conditional density provides a more…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-04-21 Catia Scricciolo

In this paper, we address the challenge of performing counterfactual inference with observational data via Bayesian nonparametric regression adjustment, with a focus on high-dimensional settings featuring multiple actions and multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-22 Alberto Caron , Gianluca Baio , Ioanna Manolopoulou

Predicting counterfactual outcomes in longitudinal data, where sequential treatment decisions heavily depend on evolving patient states, is critical yet notoriously challenging due to complex time-dependent confounding and inadequate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-15 Farbod Alinezhad , Jianfei Cao , Gary J. Young , Brady Post