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Machine learning has opened new frontiers in purely data-driven algorithms for data assimilation in, and for forecasting of, dynamical systems; the resulting methods are showing some promise. However, in contrast to model-driven algorithms,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-03 Edoardo Calvello , Elizabeth Carlson , Nikola Kovachki , Michael N. Manta , Andrew M. Stuart

We describe a new approach allowing for systematic causal attribution of weather and climate-related events, in near-real time. The method is purposely designed to facilitate its implementation at meteorological centers by relying on data…

In variational assimilation, the most probable state of a dynamical system under Gaussian assumptions for the prior and likelihood can be found by solving a least-squares minimization problem . In recent years, we have seen the popularity…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-06-22 Shaerdan Shataer , Amos S. Lawless , Nancy K. Nichols

Data assimilation provides algorithms for widespread applications in various fields. It is of practical use to deal with a large amount of information in the complex system that is hard to estimate. Weather forecasting is one of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-23 Yihua Yang

Data assimilation (DA) combines partial observations with dynamical models to improve state estimation. Filter-based DA uses only past and present data and is the prerequisite for real-time forecasts. Smoother-based DA exploits both past…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-01-21 Marios Andreou , Nan Chen , Yingda Li

Accurate mapping of ocean bathymetry is a multi-faceted process, needed for safe and efficient navigation on shipping routes and for predicting tsunami waves. Currently available bathymetry data does not always provide the resolution to…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2020-03-12 N. K. -R. Kevlahan , R. A. Khan

This study presents the extension of the data-driven optimal prediction approach to the dynamical system with control. The optimal prediction is used to analyze dynamical systems in which the states consist of resolved and unresolved…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-06-05 Aleksandr Katrutsa , Ivan Oseledets , Sergey Utyuzhnikov

This paper provides a detailed theoretical analysis of methods to approximate the solutions of high-dimensional (>10^6) linear Bayesian problems. An optimal low-rank projection that maximizes the information content of the Bayesian…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-10-28 Nicolas Bousserez , Daven K. Henze

A central challenge in data visualization is to understand which data samples are required to generate an image of a data set in which the relevant information is encoded. In this work, we make a first step towards answering the question of…

Graphics · Computer Science 2021-03-12 Sebastian Weiss , Mustafa Işık , Justus Thies , Rüdiger Westermann

State estimation in multi-layer turbulent flow fields with only a single layer of partial observation remains a challenging yet practically important task. Applications include inferring the state of the deep ocean by exploiting surface…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-09-30 Zhongrui Wang , Nan Chen , Di Qi

A new approach to design of nonlinear observers (state estimators) is proposed. The main idea is to (i) construct a convex set of dynamical systems which are contracting observers for a particular system, and (ii) optimize over this set for…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-11-23 Ian R. Manchester

Wind speed at sea surface is a key quantity for a variety of scientific applications and human activities. Due to the non-linearity of the phenomenon, a complete description of such variable is made infeasible on both the small scale and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Matteo Zambra , Nicolas Farrugia , Dorian Cazau , Alexandre Gensse , Ronan Fablet

We provide a clear and concise introduction to the subjects of inverse problems and data assimilation, and their inter-relations. The first part of our notes covers inverse problems; this refers to the study of how to estimate unknown model…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-15 Daniel Sanz-Alonso , Andrew M. Stuart , Armeen Taeb

The controllability of advection-diffusion systems, subject to uncertain initial values and emission rates, is estimated, given sparse and error affected observations of prognostic state variables. In predictive geophysical model systems,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-03-24 Xueran Wu , Hendrik Elbern , Birgit Jacob

Data assimilation performance can be significantly impacted by biased noise in observations, altering the signal magnitude and introducing fast oscillations or discontinuities when the system lacks smoothness. To mitigate these issues, this…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-11-05 Felipe Galarce , Joaquin Mura , Alfonso Caiazzo

Understanding time-dependent blood flow dynamics in arteries is crucial for diagnosing and treating cardiovascular diseases. However, accurately predicting time-varying flow patterns requires integrating observational data with…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-01-09 Muhammad Adnan Anwar , Jorge Tiago

This paper studies the role of sparse regularization in a properly chosen basis for variational data assimilation (VDA) problems. Specifically, it focuses on data assimilation of noisy and down-sampled observations while the state variable…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2014-06-25 A. M. Ebtehaj , M. Zupanski , G. Lerman , E. Foufoula-Georgiou

Satellite observation operators play an essential role in atmospheric data assimilation by translating model state variables into observation space. Previous work has shown that deep-learned emulators can effectively predict the outputs of…

Chaos arises in many complex dynamical systems, from weather to power grids, but is difficult to accurately model using data-driven emulators, including neural operator architectures. For chaotic systems, the inherent sensitivity to initial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-24 Gabriel Melo , Leonardo Santiago , Peter Y. Lu

Data assimilation combines (imperfect) knowledge of a flow's physical laws with (noisy, time-lagged, and otherwise imperfect) observations to produce a more accurate prediction of flow statistics. Assimilation by nudging (from 1964), while…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-07-31 Aytekin Çıbık , Rui Fang , William Layton , Farjana Siddiqua