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An essential problem in statistics and machine learning is the estimation of expectations involving PDFs with intractable normalizing constants. The self-normalized importance sampling (SNIS) estimator, which normalizes the IS weights, has…

Computation · Statistics 2024-07-01 Nicola Branchini , Víctor Elvira

The data analysis carried out by the LIGO-Virgo collaboration on gravitational-wave events utilizes nested sampling to compute Bayesian evidences and posterior distributions for inferring the source properties of compact binaries. With poor…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2022-10-04 Talya Klinger , Michalis Agathos

Nested sampling is a promising tool for Bayesian statistical analysis because it simultaneously performs parameter estimation and facilitates model comparison. MultiNest is one of the most popular nested sampling implementations, and has…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-09-24 Alexander J. Dittmann

Normalizing flows are tractable density models that can approximate complicated target distributions, e.g. Boltzmann distributions of physical systems. However, current methods for training flows either suffer from mode-seeking behavior,…

Bayesian Likelihood-Free Inference methods yield posterior approximations for simulator models with intractable likelihood. Recently, many works trained neural networks to approximate either the intractable likelihood or the posterior…

Computation · Statistics 2022-06-01 Lorenzo Pacchiardi , Ritabrata Dutta

In this paper, we study efficient approximate sampling for probability distributions known up to normalization constants. We specifically focus on a problem class arising in Bayesian inference for large-scale inverse problems in science and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-14 Yifan Chen , Daniel Zhengyu Huang , Jiaoyang Huang , Sebastian Reich , Andrew M. Stuart

Generative models are a promising tool to address the sampling problem in multi-body and condensed-matter systems in the framework of statistical mechanics. In this work, we show that normalizing flows can be used to learn a transformation…

Computational Physics · Physics 2022-08-23 Alessandro Coretti , Sebastian Falkner , Phillip Geissler , Christoph Dellago

Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) and its Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) extensions are state-of-the-art methods for estimating normalizing constants of probability distributions. We propose here a novel Monte Carlo algorithm, Annealed Flow…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-12 Michael Arbel , Alexander G. D. G. Matthews , Arnaud Doucet

We show that it is feasible to carry out exact Bayesian inference for non-Gaussian state space models using an adaptive Metropolis Hastings sampling scheme with the likelihood approximated by the particle filter. Furthermore, an adapyive…

Computation · Statistics 2009-11-03 Ralph Silva , Paolo Giordani , Robert Kohn , Mike Pitt

Efficient equilibrium sampling of molecular conformations remains a core challenge in computational chemistry and statistical inference. Classical approaches such as molecular dynamics or Markov chain Monte Carlo inherently lack…

Reducing acquisition time is of fundamental importance in various imaging modalities. The concept of variable density sampling provides a nice framework to achieve this. It was justified recently from a theoretical point of view in the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2014-01-29 Claire Boyer , Pierre Weiss , Jérémie Bigot

We present an alternative to reweighting techniques for modifying distributions to account for a desired change in an underlying conditional distribution, as is often needed to correct for mis-modelling in a simulated sample. We employ…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2023-05-01 Malte Algren , Tobias Golling , Manuel Guth , Chris Pollard , John Andrew Raine

Recent research has developed several Monte Carlo methods for estimating the normalization constant (partition function) based on the idea of annealing. This means sampling successively from a path of distributions that interpolate between…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-10 Omar Chehab , Aapo Hyvarinen , Andrej Risteski

We present nested sampling for factor graphs (NSFG), a novel nested sampling approach to approximate inference for posterior distributions expressed over factor-graphs. Performing such inference is a key step in simultaneous localization…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-08-10 Qiangqiang Huang , Alan Papalia , John J. Leonard

Normalizing flows are flexible, parameterized distributions that can be used to approximate expectations from intractable distributions via importance sampling. However, current flow-based approaches are limited on challenging targets where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-15 Laurence Illing Midgley , Vincent Stimper , Gregor N. C. Simm , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Estimating the parameters of mathematical models is a common problem in almost all branches of science. However, this problem can prove notably difficult when processes and model descriptions become increasingly complex and an explicit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-09 Stefan T. Radev , Ulf K. Mertens , Andreas Voss , Lynton Ardizzone , Ullrich Köthe

Gaussian Processes (GPs) can be used as flexible, non-parametric function priors. Inspired by the growing body of work on Normalizing Flows, we enlarge this class of priors through a parametric invertible transformation that can be made…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-26 Juan Maroñas , Oliver Hamelijnck , Jeremias Knoblauch , Theodoros Damoulas

We present FlowSN, a statistical framework using simulation-based inference (SBI) with normalising flows to account for selection effects in observational astronomy. Failure to account for selection effects can lead to biased inference on…

We present Sequential Neural Likelihood (SNL), a new method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, where the likelihood is intractable but simulating data from the model is possible. SNL trains an autoregressive flow on simulated data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-23 George Papamakarios , David C. Sterratt , Iain Murray

Normalizing flows have emerged as an important family of deep neural networks for modelling complex probability distributions. In this note, we revisit their coupling and autoregressive transformation layers as probabilistic graphical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-05 Antoine Wehenkel , Gilles Louppe