Related papers: Antigenic waves of virus-immune co-evolution
The temporal evolution of a contagious viral disease is modelled as the dynamic progression of different classes of population with individuals interacting pairwise. This interaction follows a binary mechanism typical of kinetic theory,…
Human pathogens transmitted through environmental pathways are subject to stress and pressures outside of the host. These pressures may cause pathogen pathovars to diverge in their environmental persistence and their infectivity on an…
This manuscript introduces a new analytical approach for studying the time evolution of disease spread on a finite size network. Our methodology can accommodate any disease with a general infectivity profile. This new approach is able to…
Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. On short timescales, super-spreading events lead to burstiness and overdispersion, while long-term persistent heterogeneity in…
We develop a stochastic framework for viral population dynamics at the cellular level that explicitly incorporates the replication cycle with random stage durations. The model is formulated as a structured birth-death process coupled with a…
Human mobility, contact patterns, and their interplay are key aspects of our social behavior that shape the spread of infectious diseases across different regions. In the light of new evidence and data sets about these two elements,…
In this letter we study the full semi-conservative treatment of a model for the co-evolution of a virus and an adaptive immune system. Regions of viability are calculated for both conservatively and semi-conservatively replicating viruses…
Many infectious diseases are comprised of multiple strains with examples including Influenza, tuberculosis, and Dengue virus. The time evolution of such systems is linked to a complex landscape shaped by interactions between competing…
This contribution is devoted to a new model of HIV multiplication motivated by the patent of one of the authors. We take into account the antigenic diversity through what we define "antigenicity", whether of the virus or of the adapted…
A key problem in modelling the evolution dynamics of infectious diseases is the mathematical representation of the mechanism of transmission of the contagion. Models with a finite number of subpopulations can be described via systems of…
Laboratory models are often used to understand the interaction of related pathogens via host immunity. For example, recent experiments where ferrets were exposed to two influenza strains within a short period of time have shown how the…
Infectious pathogens often propagate by superspreading, which focusses onward transmission on disproportionately few infected individuals. At the same time, infector-infectee pairs tend to have more similar transmission potentials than…
Reaction-diffusion waves have long been used to describe the growth and spread of populations undergoing a spatial range expansion. Such waves are generally classed as either pulled, where the dynamics are driven by the very tip of the…
We study some simple mathematical models designed to test the following hypothesis: can a pathogen escape the immune system only because of its high probability of mutation? We propose both spatial and non-spatial models. In all of our…
We present an SI epidemic model whereby a continuous variable captures variability in proliferative potential and resistance to infection among susceptibles. The occurrence of heritable, spontaneous changes in these phenotype and the…
In an increasingly interconnected world, a key scientific challenge is to examine mechanisms that lead to the widespread propagation of contagions, such as misinformation and pathogens, and identify risk factors that can trigger large-scale…
Evolving systems, be it an antibody repertoire in the face of mutating pathogens or a microbial population exposed to varied antibiotics, constantly search for adaptive solutions in time-varying fitness landscapes. Generalists correspond to…
In this study, we propose a novel model describing the coevolution between hosts and pathogens, based on a non-local partial differential equation formalism for populations structured by phenotypic traits. Our objective with this model is…
Infectious diseases outbreaks are often characterized by a spatial component induced by hosts' distribution, mobility, and interactions. Spatial models that incorporate hosts' movements are being used to describe these processes, to…
Motivated by observations in sequence data of herpesviruses, we introduce a multi-locus model for the joint evolution of different genotypes in a virus population that is distributed across a population of hosts. In the model, virus…