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Modern science increasingly relies on ever-growing observational datasets and automated inference pipelines, under the implicit belief that accumulating more data makes scientific conclusions more reliable. Here we show that this belief can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Zhipeng Zhang , Kai Li

This paper proposes risk-averse and risk-agnostic formulations to robust design in which solutions that satisfy the system requirements for a set of scenarios are pursued. These scenarios, which correspond to realizations of uncertain…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-07 Luis G. Crespo , Bret Stanford , Natalia Alexandrov

When estimating treatment effects, the golden standard is to conduct a randomized experiment and then contrast outcomes associated with the treatment group and the control group. However, in many cases, randomized experiments are either…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-08 Kevin Han

In dealing with veracity of data analytics, fuzzy methods are more and more relying on probabilistic and statistical techniques to underpin their applicability. Conversely, standard statistical models usually disregard to take into account…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-23 Elvira Di Nardo , Rosaria Simone

Observational studies are valuable tools for inferring causal effects in the absence of controlled experiments. However, these studies may be biased due to the presence of some relevant, unmeasured set of covariates. One approach to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-17 William Bekerman , Abhinandan Dalal , Carlo del Ninno , Dylan S. Small

We develop new methods to integrate experimental and observational data in causal inference. While randomized controlled trials offer strong internal validity, they are often costly and therefore limited in sample size. Observational data,…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-04 Xuelin Yang , Licong Lin , Susan Athey , Michael I. Jordan , Guido W. Imbens

Causal inference starts with a simple idea: compare groups that differ by treatment, not much else. Traditionally, similar groups are constructed using only observed covariates; however, it remains a long-standing challenge to incorporate…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-21 Ying Jin , José Zubizarreta

We consider the sequential experimental design problem in the predict-then-optimize paradigm. In this paradigm, the outputs of the prediction model are used as coefficient vectors in a downstream linear optimization problem. Traditional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-06 Beichen Wan , Mo Liu , Paul Grigas , Zuo-Jun Max Shen

Data fusion describes the method of combining data from (at least) two initially independent data sources to allow for joint analysis of variables which are not jointly observed. The fundamental idea is to base inference on identifying…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-02 Florian Meinfelder , Jannik Schaller

We propose a data-driven control method for systems with aleatoric uncertainty, for example, robot fleets with variations between agents. Our method leverages shared trajectory data to increase the robustness of the designed controller and…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Alexander von Rohr , Dmitrii Likhachev , Sebastian Trimpe

We introduce Diffusion Active Learning, a novel approach that combines generative diffusion modeling with data-driven sequential experimental design to adaptively acquire data for inverse problems. Although broadly applicable, we focus on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Luis Barba , Johannes Kirschner , Tomas Aidukas , Manuel Guizar-Sicairos , Benjamín Béjar

This paper discusses the problem of causal query in observational data with hidden variables, with the aim of seeking the change of an outcome when "manipulating" a variable while given a set of plausible confounding variables which affect…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Kui Yu , Thuc Duy Le

Simulation methods are among the most ubiquitous methodological tools in statistical science. In particular, statisticians often is simulation to explore properties of statistical functionals in models for which developed statistical theory…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-22 Tyrel Stokes , Ian Shrier , Russell Steele

Composite endpoints are commonly used with an anticipation that clinically relevant endpoints as a whole would yield meaningful treatment benefits. The win ratio is a rank-based statistic to summarize composite endpoints, allowing…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-14 Di Zhang , Stephen R. Wisniewski , Jong-Hyeon Jeong

In this paper we propose an extension of the notion of deviation-based aggregation function tailored to aggregate multidimensional data. Our objective is both to improve the results obtained by other methods that try to select the best…

We consider the problem of inference in shift-share research designs. The choice between existing approaches that allow for unrestricted spatial correlation involves tradeoffs, varying in terms of their validity when there are relatively…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-06-03 Luis Alvarez , Bruno Ferman , Raoni Oliveira

Concerns over reproducibility in science extend to research using existing healthcare data; many observational studies investigating the same topic produce conflicting results, even when using the same data. To address this problem, we…

Applications · Statistics 2018-03-30 Martijn J. Schuemie , Patrick B. Ryan , George Hripcsak , David Madigan , Marc A. Suchard

Healthcare companies must submit pharmaceutical drugs or medical devices to regulatory bodies before marketing new technology. Regulatory bodies frequently require transparent and interpretable computational modelling to justify a new…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-15 Simon Olofsson , Marc Peter Deisenroth , Ruth Misener

As artificial intelligence and machine learning tools become more accessible, and scientists face new obstacles to data collection (e.g. rising costs, declining survey response rates), researchers increasingly use predictions from…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-06 Kentaro Hoffman , Stephen Salerno , Awan Afiaz , Jeffrey T. Leek , Tyler H. McCormick

We consider experiments for comparing treatments using units that are ordered linearly over time or space within blocks. In addition to the block effect, we assume that a trend effect influences the response. The latter is modeled as a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Dibyen Majumdar , John Stufken