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Related papers: Robustness of competing climatic states

200 papers

We study a two dimensional Ising model between thermostats at different temperatures. By applying the recently introduced KQ dynamics, we show that the system reaches a steady state with coexisting phases transversal to the heat flow. The…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-03-27 E. Agliari , M. Casartelli , A. Vezzani

We propose a comprehensive framework able to address both the predictability of the first and of the second kind for high-dimensional chaotic models. For this purpose, we analyse the properties of a newly introduced multistable climate toy…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-06-29 Maximilian Gelbrecht , Valerio Lucarini , Niklas Boers , Jürgen Kurths

A "toy" model, simple and elementary enough for an undergraduate class, of the temperature dependence of the greenhouse (mid-IR) absorption by atmospheric water vapor implies a bistable climate system. The stable states are glaciation and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2012-06-15 J. I. Katz

The Ghil-Sellers energy balance model of Earth's climate, features -- for a considerable range of the solar intensity -- two stable climate states (a warm and a cold snowball Earth), where the bistability results from the celebrated…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-05-20 Tamas Bodai , Valerio Lucarini , Frank Lunkeit , Robert Boschi

In this study, we compare two analytic energy balance models with explicit dependence on obliquity to study the likelihood of different stable ice configurations. We compare the results of models with different methods of heat transport and…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2022-03-21 Ekaterina Landgren , Alice Nadeau

Multiple stable states - the coexistence of two or more distinct ecological configurations under identical environmental conditions - have attracted sustained interest in ecology, yet the field still lacks a unified framework connecting…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-05-08 Jennifer Paige , Denis D. Patterson , Alan Hastings

We investigate a coupled atmosphere-ocean model including the mechanical and thermodynamical interaction between the two fluids for the mid-latitudes. The formulation combines a multilayer quasi-geostrophic dynamical framework with…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2025-12-23 Federico Fornasaro , Tobias Kuna , Giulia Carigi

The hallmark of active matter is the autonomous directed motion of its microscopic constituents driven by consumption of energy resources. This leads to the emergence of large scale dynamics and structures without any equilibrium…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-06-22 Tomer Markovich , Étienne Fodor , Elsen Tjhung , Michael E. Cates

The instability with respect to global glaciation is a fundamental property of the climate system caused by the positive ice-albedo feedback. The atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration at which this Snowball bifurcation occurs changes…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2023-10-12 Georg Feulner , Mona Bukenberger , Stefan Petri

One of the most used metrics to gauge the effects of climate change is the equilibrium climate sensitivity, defined as the long-term (equilibrium) temperature increase resulting from instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO$_2$. Since…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-02-04 Robbin Bastiaansen , Henk A. Dijkstra , Anna S. von der Heydt

A single-column model run under the weak temperature gradient approximation, a parameterization of large-scale dynamics appropriate for the tropical atmosphere, is shown to have multiple stable equilibria. Under conditions permitting…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-05-13 Adam H. Sobel , Gilles Bellon , Julio T. Bacmeister

Due to spatial scarcity and uncertainties in sediment data, initial and boundary conditions in deep-time climate simulations are not well constrained. On the other hand, the climate is a nonlinear system with a multitude of feedback…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-11-01 Charline Ragon , Christian Vérard , Jérôme Kasparian , Maura Brunetti

We propose a non-steady state model of the global temperature change. The model describes Earth's surface temperature dynamics under main climate forcing. The equations were derived from basic physical relationships and detailed assessment…

Using a recently developed formalism, we present an in-depth analysis of how the thermodynamics of the climate system varies with CO2 concentration by performing experiments with a simplified yet Earth-like climate model. We find that, in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-11-04 V. Lucarini , K. Fraedrich , F. Lunkeit

The climate is a forced and dissipative nonlinear system featuring non-trivial dynamics of a vast range of spatial and temporal scales. The understanding of the climate's structural and multiscale properties is crucial for the provision of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-06-17 Valerio Lucarini , Richard Blender , Corentin Herbert , Salvatore Pascale , Francesco Ragone , Jeroen Wouters

The effect caused by the presence of a number of distinct time scales in a simple stochastic model for the Earth's atmosphere temperature fluctuations is studied. The model is described by a dissipative dynamics consisting of a set of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Arturo Berrones

We study the dynamics of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly using a model of the temporal patterns of two sub-regions, mimicking behaviour similar to El Ni\~no Southern Oscillations (ENSO). Specifically, we present the existence,…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2017-08-01 Chandrakala Meena , Elena Surovyatkina , Sudeshna Sinha

Modern weather and climate models share a common heritage, and often even components, however they are used in different ways to answer fundamentally different questions. As such, attempts to emulate them using machine learning should…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-03-21 Duncan Watson-Parris

In neuroscience, optics and condensed matter there is ample physical evidence for multistable dynamical systems, that is, systems with a large number of attractors. The known mathematical mechanisms that lead to multiple attractors are…

chao-dyn · Physics 2007-05-23 R. Vilela Mendes

The investigation of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system is not only scientifically challenging but also practically important. We consider a coupled atmosphere-ocean model, which involves hydrodynamics, thermodynamics, and random…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2007-05-23 J. Duan , H. Gao , B. Schmalfuss