Related papers: Variational Inference for Shrinkage Priors: The R …
The causalimages R package enables causal inference with image and image sequence data, providing new tools for integrating novel data sources like satellite and bio-medical imagery into the study of cause and effect. One set of functions…
Gaussian stochastic process emulation is a powerful tool for approximating computationally intensive computer models. However, estimation of parameters in the GaSP emulator is a challenging task. No closed-form estimator is available, and…
How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational…
In this paper, we present a variational inference algorithm that decomposes a signal into multiple groups of related spectral lines. The spectral lines in each group are associated with a group parameter common to all spectral lines within…
We present the BayesBD package providing Bayesian inference for boundaries of noisy images. The BayesBD package implements flexible Gaussian process priors indexed by the circle to recover the boundary in a binary or Gaussian noised image,…
We develop a new algorithm for inference in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identified with sign restrictions that can accommodate big data and modern identification schemes. The key innovation of our approach is to move beyond…
The prediction interval is gaining prominence in meta-analysis as it enables the assessment of uncertainties in treatment effects and heterogeneity between studies. However, coverage probabilities of the current standard method for…
The method of Bayesian variable selection via penalized credible regions separates model fitting and variable selection. The idea is to search for the sparsest solution within the joint posterior credible regions. Although the approach was…
We describe an R package developed by the research group Turbulence, Wind energy and Stochastics (TWiSt) at the Carl von Ossietzky University of Oldenburg, which extracts the (stochastic) evolution equation underlying a set of data or…
We consider the problem of multiple change-point estimation in the mean of a Gaussian AR(1) process. Taking into account the dependence structure does not allow us to use the dynamic programming algorithm, which is the only algorithm giving…
Vector autogressions (VARs) are widely applied when it comes to modeling and forecasting macroeconomic variables. In high dimensions, however, they are prone to overfitting. Bayesian methods, more concretely shrinkage priors, have shown to…
Spatially dependent data arises in many applications, and Gaussian processes are a popular modelling choice for these scenarios. While Bayesian analyses of these problems have proven to be successful, selecting prior distributions for these…
Time-varying parameter (TVP) models have the potential to be over-parameterized, particularly when the number of variables in the model is large. Global-local priors are increasingly used to induce shrinkage in such models. But the…
The R package innsight offers a general toolbox for revealing variable-wise interpretations of deep neural networks' predictions with so-called feature attribution methods. Aside from the unified and user-friendly framework, the package…
GAS models have been recently proposed in time-series econometrics as valuable tools for signal extraction and prediction. This paper details how financial risk managers can use GAS models for Value-at-Risk (VaR) prediction using the novel…
Parameter inference for linear and non-Gaussian state space models is challenging because the likelihood function contains an intractable integral over the latent state variables. While Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide exact…
We develop stochastic variational inference, a scalable algorithm for approximating posterior distributions. We develop this technique for a large class of probabilistic models and we demonstrate it with two probabilistic topic models,…
Variational inference has experienced a recent surge in popularity owing to stochastic approaches, which have yielded practical tools for a wide range of model classes. A key benefit is that stochastic variational inference obviates the…
The gmwm R package for inference on time series models is mainly based on the quantity called wavelet variance which is derived from a wavelet decomposition of a time series. This quantity provides a means to summarize and graphically…
Surrogate models provide a quick-to-evaluate approximation to complex computational models and are essential for multi-query problems like design optimisation. The inputs of current deterministic computational models are usually…