Related papers: Unbiased simulation of rare events in continuous t…
This paper studies various notions of approximate probabilistic bisimulation on labeled Markov chains (LMCs). We introduce approximate versions of weak and branching bisimulation, as well as a notion of $\varepsilon$-perturbed bisimulation…
We present an algorithm that can efficiently compute a broad class of inferences for discrete-time imprecise Markov chains, a generalised type of Markov chains that allows one to take into account partially specified probabilities and other…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a well-established family of Monte Carlo methods for performing approximate Bayesian inference in the case where an ``implicit'' model is used for the data: when the data model can be simulated, but…
We observe n possibly dependent random variables, the distribution of which is presumed to be stationary even though this might not be true, and we aim at estimating the stationary distribution. We establish a non-asymptotic deviation bound…
We develop a biased Monte Carlo algorithm to measure probabilities of rare events in cluster-cluster aggregation for arbitrary collision kernels. Given a trajectory with a fixed number of collisions, the algorithm modifies both the waiting…
Statistical inference for extreme values of random events is difficult in practice due to low sample sizes and inaccurate models for the studied rare events. If prior knowledge for extreme values is available, Bayesian statistics can be…
We study a classical model for the accumulation of errors in multi-qubit quantum computations. By modeling the error process in a quantum computation using two coupled Markov chains, we are able to capture a weak form of time-dependency…
We develop rare-event simulation methodology for the analysis of loss events in a many-server loss system under quality-driven regime, focusing on the steady-state loss probability (i.e. fraction of lost customers over arrivals) and the…
We introduce a quantum algorithm for efficient biased sampling of the rare events generated by classical memoryful stochastic processes. We show that this quantum algorithm gives an extreme advantage over known classical biased sampling…
Sampling from the posterior is a key technical problem in Bayesian statistics. Rigorous guarantees are difficult to obtain for Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms of common use. In this paper, we study an alternative class of algorithms…
We present new algorithms and fast implementations to find efficient approximations for modelling stochastic processes. For many numerical computations it is essential to develop finite approximations for stochastic processes. While the…
Consider a process, stochastic or deterministic, obtained by using a numerical integration scheme, or from Monte-Carlo methods involving an approximation to an integral, or a Newton-Raphson iteration to approximate the root of an equation.…
Complex biological processes are usually experimented along time among a collection of individuals. Longitudinal data are then available and the statistical challenge is to better understand the underlying biological mechanisms. The…
This paper introduces a class of Monte Carlo algorithms which are based upon the simulation of a Markov process whose quasi-stationary distribution coincides with a distribution of interest. This differs fundamentally from, say, current…
Stochastic processes on graphs can describe a great variety of phenomena ranging from neural activity to epidemic spreading. While many existing methods can accurately describe typical realizations of such processes, computing properties of…
In this article we consider likelihood-based estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov (POMV) diffusion process with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. In particular, using the…
In this paper we consider the estimation of unknown parameters in Bayesian inverse problems. In most cases of practical interest, there are several barriers to performing such estimation, This includes a numerical approximation of a…
We propose a model of random walks on weighted graphs where the weights are interval valued, and connect it to reversible imprecise Markov chains. While the theory of imprecise Markov chains is now well established, this is a first attempt…
Given a sequence of observations from a discrete-time, finite-state hidden Markov model, we would like to estimate the sampling distribution of a statistic. The bootstrap method is employed to approximate the confidence regions of a…
Atypical, rare trajectories of dynamical systems are important: they are often the paths for chemical reactions, the haven of (relative) stability of planetary systems, the rogue waves that are detected in oil platforms, the structures that…