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In this paper, we write the time-varying parameter (TVP) regression model involving K explanatory variables and T observations as a constant coefficient regression model with KT explanatory variables. In contrast with much of the existing…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-01 Niko Hauzenberger , Florian Huber , Gary Koop , Luca Onorante

Penalized regression models are popularly used in high-dimensional data analysis to conduct variable selection and model fitting simultaneously. Whereas success has been widely reported in literature, their performances largely depend on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-12-16 Wei Sun , Junhui Wang , Yixin Fang

We consider a stochastic individual-based model of adaptive dynamics for an asexually reproducing population with mutation, with linear birth and death rates, as well as a density-dependent competition. To depict repeating changes of the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-05-28 Manuel Esser , Anna Kraut

Pursuing invariant prediction from heterogeneous environments opens the door to learning causality in a purely data-driven way and has several applications in causal discovery and robust transfer learning. However, existing methods such as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-30 Yihong Gu , Cong Fang , Yang Xu , Zijian Guo , Jianqing Fan

In a constantly changing world, animals must account for environmental volatility when making decisions. To appropriately discount older, irrelevant information, they need to learn the rate at which the environment changes. We develop an…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2017-01-12 Adrian E Radillo , Alan Veliz-Cuba , Kresimir Josic , Zachary P Kilpatrick

The performance of machine learning models can be impacted by changes in data over time. A promising approach to address this challenge is invariant learning, with a particular focus on a method known as invariant risk minimization (IRM).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-09 Wenlu Tang , Zicheng Liu

Statistical multispecies models of multiarea marine ecosystems use a variety of data sources to estimate parameters using composite or weighted likelihood functions with associated weighting issues and questions on how to obtain variance…

Applications · Statistics 2012-02-16 Lorna Taylor , Verena M. Trenkel , Vojtech Kupca , Gunnar Stefansson

This essay looks at decision-making with interval-valued probability measures. Existing decision methods have either supplemented expected utility methods with additional criteria of optimality, or have attempted to supplement the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-15 Ronald P. Loui

Modern randomization methods in clinical trials are invariably adaptive, meaning that the assignment of the next subject to a treatment group uses the accumulated information in the trial. Some of the recent adaptive randomization methods…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-12 Alan R. Vazquez , Weng Kee Wong

We propose new continuous-time formulations for first-order stochastic optimization algorithms such as mini-batch gradient descent and variance-reduced methods. We exploit these continuous-time models, together with simple Lyapunov analysis…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-03-12 Antonio Orvieto , Aurelien Lucchi

Identifying variables associated with clinical endpoints is of much interest in clinical trials. With the rapid growth of cell and gene therapy (CGT) and therapeutics for ultra-rare diseases, there is an urgent need for statistical methods…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-18 Lingxuan Kong , Yumin Zhang , Chenkun Wang , Yaoyuan Vincent Tan

We consider a new criterion-based approach to model selection in linear regression. Properties of selection criteria based on p-values of a likelihood ratio statistic are studied for families of linear regression models. We prove that such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-05-21 Piotr Pokarowski , Jan Mielniczuk , Paweł Teisseyre

Longitudinal data analysis has been widely employed to examine between-individual differences in within-individual changes. One challenge of such analyses is that the rate-of-change is only available indirectly when change patterns are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-02 Jin Liu

Systems biology models are useful models of complex biological systems that may require a large amount of experimental data to fit each model's parameters or to approximate a likelihood function. These models range from a few to thousands…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2024-07-12 Vincent D. Zaballa , Elliot E. Hui

We develop a general framework for estimating function-valued parameters under equality or inequality constraints in infinite-dimensional statistical models. Such constrained learning problems are common across many areas of statistics and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-22 Razieh Nabi , Nima S. Hejazi , Mark J. van der Laan , David Benkeser

The generalized varying coefficient partially linear model with growing number of predictors arises in many contemporary scientific endeavor. In this paper we set foot on both theoretical and practical sides of profile likelihood estimation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-11-09 C. Lam , J. Fan

Nonlinear dynamic models are widely used for characterizing functional forms of processes that govern complex biological pathway systems. Over the past decade, validation and further development of these models became possible due to data…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-13 Itai Dattner , Shota Gugushvili , Harold Ship , Eberhard O. Voit

Given a random sample from a multivariate population, estimating the number of large eigenvalues of the population covariance matrix is an important problem in Statistics with wide applications in many areas. In the context of Principal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-10 Abhinav Chakraborty , Soumendu Sundar Mukherjee , Arijit Chakrabarti

This short study presents an opportunistic approach to a (more) reliable validation method for prediction uncertainty average calibration. Considering that variance-based calibration metrics (ZMS, NLL, RCE...) are quite sensitive to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-27 Pascal Pernot

An equilibrium random surface multistep height model proposed in [Abraham and Newman, EPL, 86, 16002 (2009)] is studied using a variant of the worm algorithm. In one limit, the model reduces to the two-dimensional Ising model in the height…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2012-07-04 Matthew Drake , Jon Machta , Youjin Deng , Douglas Abraham , Charles Newman