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A model's ability to express its own predictive uncertainty is an essential attribute for maintaining clinical user confidence as computational biomarkers are deployed into real-world medical settings. In the domain of cancer digital…

This paper explores uncertainty quantification (UQ) as an indicator of the trustworthiness of automated deep-learning (DL) tools in the context of white matter lesion (WML) segmentation from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans of…

It is necessary to estimate the expected energy usage of a building to determine how to reduce energy usage. The expected energy usage of a building can be reliably simulated using a Building Energy Model (BEM). Many of the numerous input…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2020-04-21 Arpan Mukherjee , Anna Kuechle Szweda , Andrew Alegria , Rahul Rai , Tarunraj Singh

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is an important building block for the reliable use of neural networks in real-world scenarios, as it can be a useful tool in identifying faulty predictions. Speech emotion recognition (SER) models can suffer…

Sound · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Oliver Schrüfer , Manuel Milling , Felix Burkhardt , Florian Eyben , Björn Schuller

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in computational chemistry (CC) is still in its infancy. Very few CC methods are designed to provide a confidence level on their predictions, and most users still rely improperly on the mean absolute error as…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2022-03-21 Pascal Pernot

This paper introduces a novel and scalable framework for uncertainty estimation and separation with applications in data driven modeling in science and engineering tasks where reliable uncertainty quantification is critical. Leveraging an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-19 Navid Ansari , Hans-Peter Seidel , Vahid Babaei

Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a process to quantify the uncertainties in random input parameters while achieving consistency between code simulations and physical observations. In this paper, we performed inverse UQ using an…

Applications · Statistics 2018-06-22 Xu Wu , Tomasz Kozlowski , Hadi Meidani , Koroush Shirvan

Survival analysis, which estimates the probability of event occurrence over time from censored data, is fundamental in numerous real-world applications, particularly in high-stakes domains such as healthcare and risk assessment. Despite…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-26 Yu Liu , Weiyao Tao , Tong Xia , Simon Knight , Tingting Zhu

Uncertainties from model parameters and model discrepancy from small-scale models impact the accuracy and reliability of predictions of large-scale systems. Inadequate representation of these uncertainties may result in inaccurate and…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-18 K. Sham Bhat , David S. Mebane , Curtis B. Storlie , Priyadarshi Mahapatra

Plasma kinetic equations exhibit pronounced sensitivity to microscopic perturbations in model parameters and data, making reliable and efficient uncertainty quantification (UQ) essential for predictive simulations. However, the cost of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Wei Chen , Giacomo Dimarco , Lorenzo Pareschi

ML models have errors when used for predictions. The errors are unknown but can be quantified by model uncertainty. When multiple ML models are trained using the same training points, their model uncertainties may be statistically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-23 Xiaoping Du

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an essential tool for applying deep neural networks (DNNs) to real world tasks, as it attaches a degree of confidence to DNN outputs. However, despite its benefits, UQ is often left out of the standard DNN…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-10-07 Nils Lehmann , Jakob Gawlikowski , Adam J. Stewart , Vytautas Jancauskas , Stefan Depeweg , Eric Nalisnick , Nina Maria Gottschling

Uncertainty quantification is a key pillar of trustworthy machine learning. It enables safe reactions under unsafe inputs, like predicting only when the machine learning model detects sufficient evidence, discarding anomalous data, or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-27 Michael Kirchhof

Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) in Large Language Models (LLMs) is critical for trustworthy deployment. While real-world language is inherently ambiguous, reflecting aleatoric uncertainty, existing UQ methods are typically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Tim Tomov , Dominik Fuchsgruber , Tom Wollschläger , Stephan Günnemann

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as a prominent class of data-driven methods for molecular property prediction. However, a key limitation of typical GNN models is their inability to quantify uncertainties in the predictions. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Shengli Jiang , Shiyi Qin , Reid C. Van Lehn , Prasanna Balaprakash , Victor M. Zavala

Deep learning has been shown to be highly effective for automatic modulation classification (AMC), which is a pivotal technology for next-generation cognitive communications. Yet, existing deep learning methods for AMC often lack robust…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-03 Huian Yang , Rajeev Sahay

This study investigates uncertainty quantification (UQ) using quantum-classical hybrid machine learning (ML) models for applications in complex and dynamic fields, such as attaining resiliency in supply chain digital twins and financial…

In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ) - the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model - are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-04-09 Alexander Litvinenko , Hermann G. Matthies

This paper proposes a novel uncertainty quantification framework for computationally demanding systems characterized by a large vector of non-Gaussian uncertainties. It combines state-of-the-art techniques in advanced Monte Carlo sampling…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-05 Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis

A rise in popularity of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), attributed to more powerful GPUs and widely available datasets, has seen them being increasingly used within safety-critical domains. One such domain, self-driving, has benefited from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-19 Rhiannon Michelmore , Marta Kwiatkowska , Yarin Gal