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Epidemic spreading can be suppressed by the introduction of containment measures such as social distancing and lock downs. Yet, when such measures are relaxed, new epidemic waves and infection cycles may occur. Here we explore this issue in…
Policymakers commonly employ non-pharmaceutical interventions to manage the scale and severity of pandemics. Of non-pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing policies -- designed to reduce person-to-person pathogenic spread -- have…
Lately, concepts such as lockdown, quarantine, and social distancing have become very relevant since they have been associated with essential measures in the prevention and mitigation of COVID-19. While some conclusions about the…
A model of reactive social distancing in epidemics is proposed, in which the infection rate changes with the number infected. The final-size equation for the total number that the epidemic will infect can be derived analytically, as can the…
Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…
The last three years have been an extraordinary time with the Covid-19 pandemic killing millions, affecting and distressing billions of people worldwide. Authorities took various measures such as turning school and work to remote and…
To date, the only effective means to respond to the spreading of COVID-19 pandemic are non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which entail policies to reduce social activity and mobility restrictions. Quantifying their effect is…
In response to the worldwide outbreak of the coronavirus disease COVID-19, a variety of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as face masks and social distancing have been implemented. A careful assessment of the effects of such containment…
While social living is considered to be an indispensable part of human life in today's ever-connected world, social distancing has recently received much public attention on its importance since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. In…
In this article we propose a compartmental model for the dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). We take into account the presence of asymptomatic infections and the main policies that have been adopted so far to contain the…
Optimizing the impact on the economy of control strategies aiming at containing the spread of COVID-19 is a critical challenge. We use daily new case counts of COVID-19 patients reported by local health administrations from different…
Currently there are many attempts around the world to use computers, smartphones, tablets and other electronic devices in order to stop the spread of COVID-19. Most of these attempts focus on collecting information about infected people, in…
During the COVID-19 pandemic of 2019/2020, authorities have used temporary ad-hoc policy measures, such as lockdowns and mass quarantines, to slow its transmission. However, the consequences of widespread use of these unprecedented measures…
In the absence of any proper clinical solution, human civilization is only left with sophisticated intervention measures to contain the spread of COVID-19. However, the existing models to estimate the intervention does not take into account…
During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical models of epidemic spreading have emerged as powerful tools to produce valuable predictions of the evolution of the pandemic, helping public health authorities decide which intervention…
Mathematical modeling of epidemic spreading has been widely adopted to estimate the threats of epidemic diseases (i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic) as well as to evaluate epidemic control interventions. The indoor place is considered to be a…
The frequent emergence of diseases with the potential to become threats at local and global scales, such as influenza A(H1N1), SARS, MERS, and recently COVID-19 disease, makes it crucial to keep designing models of disease propagation and…
Modern Bayesian approaches and workflows emphasize in how simulation is important in the context of model developing. Simulation can help researchers understand how the model behaves in a controlled setting and can be used to stress the…
We study the critical effect of an intermittent social distancing strategy on the propagation of epidemics in adaptive complex networks. We characterize the effect of our strategy in the framework of the susceptible-infected-recovered…
A mathematical model for the COVID-19 pandemic spread, which integrates age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased dynamics with real mobile phone data accounting for the population mobility, is presented. The dynamical…