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Since early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, there has been interest in using artificial intelligence methods to predict COVID-19 infection status based on vocal audio signals, for example cough recordings. However,…

With COVID-19 affecting every country globally and changing everyday life, the ability to forecast the spread of the disease is more important than any previous epidemic. The conventional methods of disease-spread modeling, compartmental…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-19 Benjamin Lucas , Behzad Vahedi , Morteza Karimzadeh

Coronavirus COVID-19 spreads through the population mostly based on social contact. To gauge the potential for widespread contagion, to cope with associated uncertainty and to inform its mitigation, more accurate and robust modelling is…

We propose the novel use of a generative adversarial network (GAN) (i) to make predictions in time (PredGAN) and (ii) to assimilate measurements (DA-PredGAN). In the latter case, we take advantage of the natural adjoint-like properties of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-26 Vinicius L. S. Silva , Claire E. Heaney , Yaqi Li , Christopher C. Pain

In this work we present a spatial-temporal convolutional neural network for predicting future COVID-19 related symptoms severity among a population, per region, given its past reported symptoms. This can help approximate the number of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-15 Ravid Shwartz-Ziv , Itamar Ben Ari , Amitai Armon

This paper presents an approach for predicting the self-rated health of individuals in a future population utilising the individuals' socio-economic characteristics. An open-source microsimulation is used to project Ireland's population…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2026-01-22 Seán Caulfield Curley , Karl Mason , Patrick Mannion

The emergence of COVID-19 has necessitated many efforts by the scientific community for its proper management. An urgent clinical reaction is required in the face of the unending devastation being caused by the pandemic. These efforts…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-14 Parsa Sarosh , Shabir A. Parah , Romany F Mansur , G. M. Bhat

In regard to infectious diseases socioeconomic determinants are strongly associated with differential exposure and susceptibility however they are seldom accounted for by standard compartmental infectious disease models. These associations…

Applications · Statistics 2022-11-28 Alison C Hale , Jonathan M Read , Christopher P Jewell

The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 has led to a surge in interest in the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases. Such models are usually defined as compartmental models, in which the population under study is divided into compartments…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-02-16 Malú Grave , Alex Viguerie , Gabriel F. Barros , Alessandro Reali , Alvaro L. G. A. Coutinho

The paper presents classification and analysis of the mathematical models of COVID-19 spread in different groups of populations such as the family, school, office (3-100 people), neighborhood (100-5000 people), city, region (0.5-15 million…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-02-01 O. I. Krivorotko , S. I. Kabanikhin

We present a compartmental meta-population model for the spread of Covid-19 in India. Our model simulates populations at a district or state level using an epidemiological model that is appropriate to Covid-19. Different districts are…

Many democratic countries use district-based elections where there is a "seat" for each district in the governing body. In each district, the party whose candidate gets the maximum number of votes wins the corresponding seat. The result of…

Applications · Statistics 2020-06-23 Adway Mitra

The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has now spread throughout the globe infecting over 150 million people and causing the death of over 3.2 million people. Thus, there is an urgent need to study the dynamics of…

Compartmental models are used in epidemiology to capture the evolution of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 in a population by assigning members of it to compartments with labels such as susceptible, infected, and recovered. In a…

Formal Languages and Automata Theory · Computer Science 2024-02-15 Tim Leys , Guillermo A. Perez

When COVID-19 first started spreading and quarantine was implemented, the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM) Student Chapter at the University of Minnesota-Twin Cities began a collaboration with Ecolab to use our skills…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-22 Cora Brown , Sarah Milstein , Tianyi Sun , Cooper Zhao

During 2020, the infection rate of COVID-19 has been investigated by many scholars from different research fields. In this context, reliable and interpretable forecasts of disease incidents are a vital tool for policymakers to manage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-05 Cornelius Fritz , Emilio Dorigatti , David Rügamer

The spread of COVID-19 during the initial phase of the first half of 2020 was curtailed to a larger or lesser extent through measures of social distancing imposed by most countries. In this work, we link directly, through machine learning…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-08-20 G. D. Barmparis , G. P. Tsironis

The spread of COVID-19 revealed that transmission risk patterns are not homogenous across different cities and communities, and various heterogeneous features can influence the spread trajectories. Hence, for predictive pandemic monitoring,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-22 Junwei Ma , Bo Li , Qingchun Li , Chao Fan , Ali Mostafavi

The epidemiology of pandemics is classically viewed using geographical and political borders; however, these artificial divisions can result in a misunderstanding of the current epidemiological state within a given region. To improve upon…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-11-28 David Lyver , Mihai Nica , Corentin Cot , Giacomo Cacciapaglia , Zahra Mohammadi , Edward W. Thommes , Monica-Gabriela Cojocaru

We demonstrate an approach to replicate and forecast the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic using the toolkit of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs). Our goal is to study the impact of various modeling assumptions and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-08 Swapneel Mehta , Noah Kasmanoff