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This article studies the fluctuation behaviour of the stochastic point vortex model with common noise. Using the martingale method combined with a localization argument, we prove that the sequence of fluctuation processes converges in…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-14 Yufei Shao , Xianliang Zhao

We study fixed point biased involutions that avoid a pattern. For every pattern of length three we obtain limit theorems for the asymptotic distribution of the (appropriately centered and scaled) number of fixed points of a random fixed…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-01 Jungeun Park , Douglas Rizzolo

Markov processes restarted or reset at random times to a fixed state or region in space have been actively studied recently in connection with random searches, foraging, and population dynamics. Here we study the large deviations of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-01-06 Janusz M. Meylahn , Sanjib Sabhapandit , Hugo Touchette

A family of self-similar and translation-invariant random sup-measures with long-range dependence are investigated. They are shown to arise as the limit of the empirical random sup-measure of a stationary heavy-tailed process, inspired by…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-11 Olivier Durieu , Yizao Wang

Let $\big(M_k, Q_k\big)_{k\in\mathbb{N}}$ be independent copies of an $\mathbb{R}^2$-valued random vector. It is known that if $Y_n:=Q_1+M_1Q_2+...+M_1\cdot...\cdot M_{n-1}Q_n$ converges a.s. to a random variable $Y$, then the law of $Y$…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-11-13 Dariusz Buraczewski , Alexander Iksanov

Risk estimation is at the core of many learning systems. The importance of this problem has motivated researchers to propose different schemes, such as cross validation, generalized cross validation, and Bootstrap. The theoretical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-19 Ji Xu , Arian Maleki , Kamiar Rahnama Rad , Daniel Hsu

We rigorously prove a central limit theorem for neural network models with a single hidden layer. The central limit theorem is proven in the asymptotic regime of simultaneously (A) large numbers of hidden units and (B) large numbers of…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-04 Justin Sirignano , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

We study existence of random elements with partially specified distributions. The technique relies on the existence of a positive extension for linear functionals accompanied by additional conditions that ensure the regularity of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-01-20 Raphael Lachieze-Rey , Ilya Molchanov

This paper develops mixed-normal approximations for probabilities that vectors of multiple Skorohod integrals belong to random convex polytopes when the dimensions of the vectors possibly diverge to infinity. We apply the developed theory…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-02 Yuta Koike

Regular variation provides a convenient theoretical framework to study large events. In the multivariate setting, the dependence structure of the positive extremes is characterized by a measure - the spectral measure - defined on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-24 Meyer Nicolas , Olivier Wintenberger

We consider random variables observed at arrival times of a renewal process, which possibly depends on those observations and has regularly varying steps with infinite mean. Due to the dependence and heavy tailed steps, the limiting…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-08 Bojan Basrak , Drago Špoljarić

Concentration of measure is a phenomenon in which a random variable that depends in a smooth way on a large number of independent random variables is essentially constant. The random variable will "concentrate" around its median or…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-08-25 Meg Walters

In this work, we present a complete characterization of the covariance structure of number statistics in boxes for hyperuniform point processes. Under a standard integrability assumption, the covariance depends solely on the overlap of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-26 Jonas Jalowy , Hanna Stange

We investigate the asymptotic behavior as time goes to infinity of Hawkes processes whose regression kernel has $L^1$ norm close to one and power law tail of the form $x^{-(1+\alpha)}$, with $\alpha\in(0,1)$. We in particular prove that…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-14 Thibault Jaisson , Mathieu Rosenbaum

The paper studies coincidence points of parameterized set-valued mappings (multifunctions), which provide an extended framework to cover several important topics in variational analysis and optimization that include the existence of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-03-23 Aram V. Arutyunov , Boris S. Mordukhovich , Sergey E. Zhukovskiy

We consider a multivariate heavy-tailed stochastic volatility model and analyze the large-sample behavior of its sample covariance matrix. We study the limiting behavior of its entries in the infinite-variance case and derive results for…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-10 Anja Janßen , Thomas Mikosch , Mohsen Rezapour , Xiaolei Xie

We study the consistency of sample mean-variance portfolios of arbitrarily high dimension that are based on Bayesian or shrinkage estimation of the input parameters as well as weighted sampling. In an asymptotic setting where the number of…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-05-30 Francisco Rubio , Xavier Mestre , Daniel P. Palomar

The extremal behaviour of a Markov chain is typically characterized by its tail chain. For asymptotically dependent Markov chains existing formulations fail to capture the full evolution of the extreme event when the chain moves out of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-07 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Kirstin Strokorb , Jonathan A. Tawn , Adam Butler

We consider non-convex stochastic optimization using first-order algorithms for which the gradient estimates may have heavy tails. We show that a combination of gradient clipping, momentum, and normalized gradient descent yields convergence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-10 Ashok Cutkosky , Harsh Mehta

We address the problem of analyzing sets of noisy time-varying signals that all report on the same process but confound straightforward analyses due to complex inter-signal heterogeneities and measurement artifacts. In particular we…

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