Related papers: Model-based Prediction and Optimal Control of Pand…
Infectious diseases and human behavior are intertwined. On one side, our movements and interactions are the engines of transmission. On the other, the unfolding of viruses might induce changes to our daily activities. While intuitive, our…
We combine infectious disease transmission and the non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) response to disease incidence into one closed model consisting of two coupled delay differential equations for the incidence rate and the…
To what extent are effectiveness estimates of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 influenced by the assumptions our models make? To answer this question, we investigate 2 state-of-the-art NPI effectiveness models and…
Epidemiological models are best suitable to model an epidemic if the spread pattern is stationary. To deal with non-stationary patterns and multiple waves of an epidemic, we develop a hybrid model encompassing epidemic modeling, particle…
Countries around the world implement nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Design of efficient NPIs requires identification of the structure of the disease transmission network. We here identify the key…
Diverse non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs), serving as the primary approach for COVID-19 control prior to pharmaceutical interventions, showed heterogeneous spatiotemporal effects on pandemic management. Investigating the dynamic…
Hard-to-predict bursts of COVID-19 pandemic revealed significance of statistical modeling which would resolve spatio-temporal correlations over geographical areas, for example spread of the infection over a city with census tract…
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmingly demonstrated the need to accurately evaluate the effects of implementing new or altering existing nonpharmaceutical interventions. Since these interventions applied at the societal level…
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential threat of future epidemics caused by novel viruses, we developed a flexible framework for modeling disease intervention effects. This tool is intended to aid decision makers at multiple…
Mathematical models are instrumental to forecast the spread of pathogens and to evaluate the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical measures. A plethora of optimal strategies has been recently developed to minimize either the infected peak…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, different countries, regions, and communities constructed various epidemic models to evaluate spreading behaviors and assist in making mitigation policies. Model uncertainties, introduced by complex…
Timely and effective decision-making is critical during epidemics to reduce preventable infections and deaths. This demands integrated models that jointly capture disease dynamics, vaccine distribution, regional disparities, and behavioral…
We consider the problem of controlling an SIR-model epidemic by temporarily reducing the rate of contact within a population. The control takes the form of a multiplicative reduction in the contact rate of infectious individuals. The…
Aim of this paper is the description of a new tool to support institutions in the implementation of targeted countermeasures, based on quantitative and multi-scale elements, for the fight and prevention of emergencies, such as the current…
The COVID-19 pandemic created enormous public health and socioeconomic challenges. The health effects of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were often contrasted with significant social and economic costs. We describe a…
Non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as contact tracing and social distancing, are critical for controlling epidemic outbreaks, yet their dynamic interactions remain underexplored. We introduce a probabilistic framework to analyze the…
The emergence and spread of deadly pandemics has repeatedly occurred throughout history, causing widespread infections and loss of life. The rapid spread of pandemics have made governments across the world adopt a range of actions,…
In the absence of drugs and vaccines, policymakers use non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing to decrease rates of disease-causing contact, with the aim of reducing or delaying the epidemic peak. These measures carry…
To date, the only effective means to respond to the spreading of COVID-19 pandemic are non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which entail policies to reduce social activity and mobility restrictions. Quantifying their effect is…
Policymakers commonly employ non-pharmaceutical interventions to manage the scale and severity of pandemics. Of non-pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing policies -- designed to reduce person-to-person pathogenic spread -- have…