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Non-autonomous differential equations are crucial for modeling systems influenced by external signals, yet fitting these models to data becomes particularly challenging when the signals change abruptly. To address this problem, we propose a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-10 Hyeontae Jo , Krešimir Josić , Jae Kyoung Kim

Parameter estimation for gravitational-wave signals is computationally demanding due to the high dimensionality of the parameter space and the cost of repeated waveform generation in traditional Bayesian inference. These analyses require on…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2026-03-30 Sama Al-Shammari , Alexandre Göttel , Masaki Iwaya , Vivien Raymond

Neural networks are being extensively used for modelling data, especially in the case where no likelihood can be formulated. Although in the case of X-ray spectral fitting, the likelihood is known, we aim to investigate the neural networks…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-02-22 Didier Barret , Simon Dupourqué

Despite the promise of Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) methods in astronomy, the adaptation of NPE into the routine inference workflow has been slow. We identify three critical issues: the need for custom featurizer networks tailored to…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-12-25 Keming Zhang , Joshua S. Bloom , Stéfan van der Walt , Nina Hernitschek

Computer simulations have long presented the exciting possibility of scientific insight into complex real-world processes. Despite the power of modern computing, however, it remains challenging to systematically perform inference under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-10 Sam Griesemer , Defu Cao , Zijun Cui , Carolina Osorio , Yan Liu

Sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) techniques have been recently proposed for dealing with simulation-based models with intractable likelihoods. Unlike approximate Bayesian computation, SNPE techniques learn the posterior from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-17 Yifei Xiong , Xiliang Yang , Sanguo Zhang , Zhijian He

Inverse problems and, in particular, inferring unknown or latent parameters from data are ubiquitous in engineering simulations. A predominant viewpoint in identifying unknown parameters is Bayesian inference where both prior information…

Computation · Statistics 2022-08-31 Vahid Keshavarzzadeh , Robert M. Kirby , Akil Narayan

Generative models and those with computationally intractable likelihoods are widely used to describe complex systems in the natural sciences, social sciences, and engineering. Fitting these models to data requires likelihood-free inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-04 Rui Zhang , Oksana A. Chkrebtii , Dongbin Xiu

Bayesian brain theory suggests that the brain employs generative models to understand the external world. The sampling-based perspective posits that the brain infers the posterior distribution through samples of stochastic neuronal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Xingsi Dong , Si Wu

Across many domains of science, stochastic models are an essential tool to understand the mechanisms underlying empirically observed data. Models can be of different levels of detail and accuracy, with models of high-fidelity (i.e., high…

This paper provides a unified framework for analyzing tensor estimation problems that allow for nonlinear observations, heteroskedastic noise, and covariate information. We study a general class of high-dimensional models where each…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Riccardo Rossetti , Galen Reeves

Some of the issues that make sampling parameter spaces of various beyond the Standard Model (BSM) scenarios computationally expensive are the high dimensionality of the input parameter space, complex likelihoods, and stringent experimental…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2026-02-16 Atrideb Chatterjee , Arghya Choudhury , Sourav Mitra , Arpita Mondal , Subhadeep Mondal

Parameterized partial differential equations (PDEs) underpin the mathematical modeling of complex systems in diverse domains, including engineering, healthcare, and physics. A central challenge in using PDEs for real-world applications is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Xuyang Li , Mahdi Masmoudi , Rami Gharbi , Nizar Lajnef , Vishnu Naresh Boddeti

Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGMs) are an inferential model for analysing statistical networks. Recent development in ERGMs uses hierarchical Bayesian setup to jointly model a group of networks, which is called a multiple-network…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-06 Yefeng Fan , Simon Richard White

Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), synthetic likelihood, and neural posterior estimation (NPE) rely on simulating statistics to infer parameters of intractable likelihood models.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-06 Daolang Huang , Ayush Bharti , Amauri Souza , Luigi Acerbi , Samuel Kaski

Radar sounders are electromagnetic instruments that can probe deep into the subsurface of Earth and other planetary bodies by processing the echo of transmitted radar waves. Conventional approaches for analyzing such data rely on…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-12 Jordy Dal Corso , Annalena Kofler , Marco Cortellazzi , Lorenzo Bruzzone , Bernhard Schölkopf

Parameter estimation and inference from complex survey samples typically focuses on global model parameters whose estimators have asymptotic properties, such as from fixed effects regression models. The central challenge is to both mitigate…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-13 Matthew R. Williams , F. Hunter McGuire , Terrance D. Savitsky

Robust environment perception is essential for decision-making on robots operating in complex domains. Principled treatment of uncertainty sources in a robot's observation model is necessary for accurate mapping and object detection. This…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2016-07-15 Shayegan Omidshafiei , Brett T. Lopez , Jonathan P. How , John Vian

Identifying the parameters of a non-linear model that best explain observed data is a core task across scientific fields. When such models rely on complex simulators, evaluating the likelihood is typically intractable, making traditional…

Stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems are ubiquitous in modern, real-world applications. Yet, estimating the unknown parameters of stochastic, nonlinear dynamical models remains a challenging problem. The majority of existing methods…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-06 Anubhab Ghosh , Mohamed Abdalmoaty , Saikat Chatterjee , Håkan Hjalmarsson