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We address a fundamental problem that is systematically encountered when modeling complex systems: the limitedness of the information available. In the case of economic and financial networks, privacy issues severely limit the information…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-12-07 Giulio Cimini , Tiziano Squartini , Diego Garlaschelli , Andrea Gabrielli

Models with dimension more than the available sample size are now commonly used in various applications. A sensible inference is possible using a lower-dimensional structure. In regression problems with a large number of predictors, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-25 Sayantan Banerjee , Ismaël Castillo , Subhashis Ghosal

In this expository paper, we consider the problem of causal inference and efficient estimation for the counterfactual survivor function. This problem has previously been considered in the literature in several papers, each relying on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-02 Benjamin R. Baer , Ashkan Ertefaie , Robert L. Strawderman

Current approximate posteriors in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) exhibit a crucial limitation: they fail to maintain invariance under reparameterization, i.e. BNNs assign different posterior densities to different parametrizations of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Hrittik Roy , Marco Miani , Carl Henrik Ek , Philipp Hennig , Marvin Pförtner , Lukas Tatzel , Søren Hauberg

Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), synthetic likelihood, and neural posterior estimation (NPE) rely on simulating statistics to infer parameters of intractable likelihood models.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-06 Daolang Huang , Ayush Bharti , Amauri Souza , Luigi Acerbi , Samuel Kaski

Hierarchical models with gamma hyperpriors provide a flexible, sparse-promoting framework to bridge $L^1$ and $L^2$ regularizations in Bayesian formulations to inverse problems. Despite the Bayesian motivation for these models, existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-30 Shiv Agrawal , Hwanwoo Kim , Daniel Sanz-Alonso , Alexander Strang

In statistical inference, it is rarely realistic that the hypothesized statistical model is well-specified, and consequently it is important to understand the effects of misspecification on inferential procedures. When the hypothesized…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-01 Beomjo Park , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Larry Wasserman

Existing survival analysis techniques heavily rely on strong modelling assumptions and are, therefore, prone to model misspecification errors. In this paper, we develop an inferential method based on ideas from conformal prediction, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-25 Emmanuel J. Candès , Lihua Lei , Zhimei Ren

In observational studies, instrumental variables estimation is greatly utilized to identify causal effects. One of the key conditions for the instrumental variables estimator to be consistent is the exclusion restriction, which indicates…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-16 Gyuhyeong Goh , Jisang Yu

We address the problem of integrating data from multiple, possibly biased, observational and interventional studies, to eventually compute counterfactuals in structural causal models. We start from the case of a single observational dataset…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-01 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , Rafael Cabañas , David Huber

We present a class of inequality constraints on the set of distributions induced by local interventions on variables governed by a causal Bayesian network, in which some of the variables remain unmeasured. We derive bounds on causal effects…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-02 Changsung Kang , Jin Tian

Motivation of our work is to present a new methodology for symbol recognition. We support structural methods for representing visual associations in graphic documents. The proposed method employs a structural approach for symbol…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2010-05-03 Muhammad Muzzamil Luqman , Mathieu Delalandre , Thierry Brouard , Jean-Yves Ramel , Josep Lladós

Machine learning methods for computational imaging require uncertainty estimation to be reliable in real settings. While Bayesian models offer a computationally tractable way of recovering uncertainty, they need large data volumes to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-24 Francesco Tonolini , Jack Radford , Alex Turpin , Daniele Faccio , Roderick Murray-Smith

Set-based transformer models for amortized probabilistic inference and meta-learning, such as neural processes, prior-fitted networks, and tabular foundation models, excel at single-pass marginal prediction. However, many applications…

Bayesian observer and actor models have provided normative explanations for many behavioral phenomena in perception, sensorimotor control, and other areas of cognitive science and neuroscience. They attribute behavioral variability and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-03 Dominik Straub , Tobias F. Niehues , Jan Peters , Constantin A. Rothkopf

Unsupervised estimation of latent variable models is a fundamental problem central to numerous applications of machine learning and statistics. This work presents a principled approach for estimating broad classes of such models, including…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-05-27 Animashree Anandkumar , Daniel Hsu , Adel Javanmard , Sham M. Kakade

Although linear regression models are fundamental tools in statistical science, the estimation results can be sensitive to outliers. While several robust methods have been proposed in frequentist frameworks, statistical inference is not…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-15 Shintaro Hashimoto , Shonosuke Sugasawa

Vector autoregressive models characterize a variety of time series in which linear combinations of current and past observations can be used to accurately predict future observations. For instance, each element of an observation vector…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-27 Eric C. Hall , Garvesh Raskutti , Rebecca Willett

Learning a causal directed acyclic graph from data is a challenging task that involves solving a combinatorial problem for which the solution is not always identifiable. A new line of work reformulates this problem as a continuous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-05 Philippe Brouillard , Sébastien Lachapelle , Alexandre Lacoste , Simon Lacoste-Julien , Alexandre Drouin

Under adaptive progressive Type-II censoring schemes, order restricted inference based on competing risks data is discussed in this article. The latent failure lifetimes for the competing causes are assumed to follow Weibull distributions,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-10 Ayon Ganguly , Debanjan Mitra , Debasis Kundu