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Probabilistic time series forecasting involves estimating the distribution of future based on its history, which is essential for risk management in downstream decision-making. We propose a deep state space model for probabilistic time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-02 Longyuan Li , Junchi Yan , Xiaokang Yang , Yaohui Jin

Time series modelling is essential for solving tasks such as predictive maintenance, quality control and optimisation. Deep learning is widely used for solving such problems. When managing complex manufacturing process with neural networks,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-17 Alexey Kurochkin

Cyber-physical systems often consist of entities that interact with each other over time. Meanwhile, as part of the continued digitization of industrial processes, various sensor technologies are deployed that enable us to record…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-09-03 Razvan-Gabriel Cirstea , Darius-Valer Micu , Gabriel-Marcel Muresan , Chenjuan Guo , Bin Yang

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are proposed without considering the agnostic distribution shifts between training and testing graphs, inducing the degeneration of the generalization ability of GNNs on Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) settings. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-12 Shaohua Fan , Xiao Wang , Chuan Shi , Peng Cui , Bai Wang

The discovery of structure from time series data is a key problem in fields of study working with complex systems. Most identifiability results and learning algorithms assume the underlying dynamics to be discrete in time. Comparatively…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-04 Alexis Bellot , Kim Branson , Mihaela van der Schaar

Dynamic network models (DNMs) are belief networks for temporal reasoning. The DNM methodology combines techniques from time series analysis and probabilistic reasoning to provide (1) a knowledge representation that integrates…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-08 Paul Dagum , Adam Galper

Probabilistic Graphical Models are often used to understand dynamics of a system. They can model relationships between features (nodes) and the underlying distribution. Theoretically these models can represent very complex dependency…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-21 Harsh Shrivastava , Urszula Chajewska

Compositional generalization-a key open challenge in modern machine learning-requires models to predict unknown combinations of known concepts. However, assessing compositional generalization remains a fundamental challenge due to the lack…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-06 Giacomo Camposampiero , Pietro Barbiero , Michael Hersche , Roger Wattenhofer , Abbas Rahimi

We propose improving the cross-target and cross-scene generalization of visual navigation through learning an agent that is guided by conceiving the next observations it expects to see. This is achieved by learning a variational Bayesian…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-01-11 Qiaoyun Wu , Dinesh Manocha , Jun Wang , Kai Xu

This study aims to understand how statistical biases affect the model's ability to generalize to in-distribution and out-of-distribution data on algorithmic tasks. Prior research indicates that transformers may inadvertently learn to rely…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-11 John Mitros

Chaotic dynamical systems exhibit strong sensitivity to initial conditions and often contain unresolved multiscale processes, making deterministic forecasting fundamentally limited. Generative models offer an appealing alternative by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Patrick Wyrod , Ashesh Chattopadhyay , Daniele Venturi

Neural networks typically generalize well when fitting the data perfectly, even though they are heavily overparameterized. Many factors have been pointed out as the reason for this phenomenon, including an implicit bias of stochastic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Amit Peleg , Matthias Hein

Real-world time series often exhibit complex interdependencies that cannot be captured in isolation. Global models that model past data from multiple related time series globally while producing series-specific forecasts locally are now…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-14 Abishek Sriramulu , Christoph Bergmeir , Slawek Smyl

Recent work has focused on data-driven learning of the evolution of unknown systems via deep neural networks (DNNs), with the goal of conducting long time prediction of the evolution of the unknown system. Training a DNN with low…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-28 Victor Churchill , Steve Manns , Zhen Chen , Dongbin Xiu

Temporal set prediction involves forecasting the elements that will appear in the next set, given a sequence of prior sets, each containing a variable number of elements. Existing methods often rely on intricate architectures with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Ashish Ranjan , Ayush Agarwal , Shalin Barot , Sushant Kumar

Generalizing machine learning (ML) models for network traffic dynamics tends to be considered a lost cause. Hence for every new task, we design new models and train them on model-specific datasets closely mimicking the deployment…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2022-10-25 Alexander Dietmüller , Siddhant Ray , Romain Jacob , Laurent Vanbever

Neural networks (NNs) whose subnetworks implement reusable functions are expected to offer numerous advantages, including compositionality through efficient recombination of functional building blocks, interpretability, preventing…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2021-03-09 Róbert Csordás , Sjoerd van Steenkiste , Jürgen Schmidhuber

Compositional generalization refers to the ability to generalize to novel combinations of previously observed words and syntactic structures. Since it is regarded as a desired property of neural models, recent work has assessed…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Ryoma Kumon , Daiki Matsuoka , Hitomi Yanaka

Machine learning-based simulators offer the potential to model the dynamics of complex systems more efficiently than classical approaches, while retaining differentiability, a key property for materials design. Graph neural network…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2026-05-12 S. A. Shteingolts , Salman N. Salman , Dan Mendels

Time series forecasting is crucial for decision-making across various domains, particularly in financial markets where stock prices exhibit complex and non-linear behaviors. Accurately predicting future price movements is challenging due to…

General Economics · Economics 2025-04-29 Tiantian Tu