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Trend-following strategies underpin many systematic trading approaches yet struggle under nonstationary and nonlinear market regimes. We propose an LSTM-based framework to forecast next-day trend differences ($\Delta_t$) for the top 30 S\&P…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-17 Harris Buchanan , Eric Benhamou

Prediction of stock prices has been a crucial and challenging task, especially in the case of highly volatile digital currencies such as Bitcoin. This research examineS the potential of using neural network models, namely LSTMs and GRUs, to…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-05-15 Ali Mohammadjafari

Accurate prediction of stock market trends is crucial for informed investment decisions and effective portfolio management, ultimately leading to enhanced wealth creation and risk mitigation. This study proposes a novel approach for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-02 Lida Shahbandari , Elahe Moradi , Mohammad Manthouri

Our research aims to find the best model that uses companies projections and sector performances and how the given company fares accordingly to correctly predict equity share prices for both short and long term goals.

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-07-18 Varun Sangwan , Vishesh Kumar Singh , Bibin Christopher

We present a novel approach for predicting the distribution of asset returns using a quantile-based method with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our model is designed in two stages: the first focuses on predicting the quantiles of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-01-29 Ísak Pétursson , María Óskarsdóttir

Bitcoin as a cryptocurrency has been one of the most important digital coins and the first decentralized digital currency. Deep neural networks, on the other hand, has shown promising results recently; however, we require huge amount of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-11-14 Parth Daxesh Modi , Kamyar Arshi , Pertami J. Kunz , Abdelhak M. Zoubir

The volatility and complex dynamics of cryptocurrency markets present unique challenges for accurate price forecasting. This research proposes a hybrid deep learning and machine learning model that integrates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-30 Mehul Gautam

Accurate prediction of price behavior in the foreign exchange market is crucial. This paper proposes a novel approach that leverages technical indicators and deep neural networks. The proposed architecture consists of a Long Short-Term…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-02 Sahabeh Saadati , Mohammad Manthouri

This study presents an innovative approach for predicting cryptocurrency time series, specifically focusing on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin. The methodology integrates the use of technical indicators, a Performer neural network, and…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-03-07 Mohammad Ali Labbaf Khaniki , Mohammad Manthouri

The financial market trend forecasting method is emerging as a hot topic in financial markets today. Many challenges still currently remain, and various researches related thereto have been actively conducted. Especially, recent research of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-06 Jonghyeon Min

This study proposes a hybrid deep learning model for forecasting the price of Bitcoin, as the digital currency is known to exhibit frequent fluctuations. The models used are the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) and the Long Short-Term…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-21 Emmanuel Boadi

Financial time series have historically been assumed to be a martingale process under the Random Walk hypothesis. Instead of making investment decisions using the raw prices alone, various multimodal pattern matching algorithms have been…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-08-21 Minsuk Kim , Byungchul Kim , Junyeong Yong , Jeongwoo Park , Gyeongmin Kim

Cryptocurrency markets are characterized by extreme volatility, making accurate forecasts essential for effective risk management and informed trading strategies. Traditional deterministic (point) forecasting methods are inadequate for…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-08-25 Grzegorz Dudek , Witold Orzeszko , Piotr Fiszeder

We present a deep long short-term memory (LSTM)-based neural network for predicting asset prices, together with a successful trading strategy for generating profits based on the model's predictions. Our work is motivated by the fact that…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-05-09 Chariton Chalvatzis , Dimitrios Hristu-Varsakelis

This work aims to analyse the predictability of price movements of cryptocurrencies on both hourly and daily data observed from January 2017 to January 2021, using deep learning algorithms. For our experiments, we used three sets of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-02-18 Marco Ortu , Nicola Uras , Claudio Conversano , Giuseppe Destefanis , Silvia Bartolucci

To address the complexity of financial time series, this paper proposes a forecasting model combining sliding window and variational mode decomposition (VMD) methods. Historical stock prices and relevant market indicators are used to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-22 Luke Li

In this paper, we introduce a new approach to multivariate forecasting cryptocurrency prices using a hybrid contextual model combining exponential smoothing (ES) and recurrent neural network (RNN). The model consists of two tracks: the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Slawek Smyl , Grzegorz Dudek , Paweł Pełka

In today's era of big data, deep learning and artificial intelligence have formed the backbone for cryptocurrency portfolio optimization. Researchers have investigated various state of the art machine learning models to predict Bitcoin…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2020-02-04 Aniruddha Dutta , Saket Kumar , Meheli Basu

In this paper, a method of prediction on continuous time series variables from the production or flow -- an LSTM algorithm based on multivariate tuning -- is proposed. The algorithm improves the traditional LSTM algorithm and converts the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Hongzhi Wang , Yang Song , Shihan Tang

We investigate the predictability of several range-based stock volatility estimators, and compare them to the standard close-to-close estimator which is most commonly acknowledged as the volatility. The patterns of volatility changes are…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-03-21 Gábor Petneházi , József Gáll