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Related papers: Advances in Importance Sampling

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The study further explores randomized QMC (RQMC), which maintains the QMC convergence rate and facilitates computational efficiency analysis. Emphasis is laid on integrating randomly shifted lattice rules, a distinct RQMC quadrature, with…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-09-21 Zhan Zheng , Hejin Wang , Xiaoqun Wang

Sequential importance sampling algorithms have been defined to estimate likelihoods in models of ancestral population processes. However, these algorithms are based on features of the models with constant population size, and become…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-24 Coralie Merle , Raphaël Leblois , François Rousset , Pierre Pudlo

This paper introduces a sequential multiple importance sampling (SeMIS) algorithm for high-dimensional Bayesian inference. The method estimates Bayesian evidence using all generated samples from each proposal distribution while obtaining…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Li Binbin , He Xiao , Liao Zihan

In solving simulation-based stochastic root-finding or optimization problems that involve rare events, such as in extreme quantile estimation, running crude Monte Carlo can be prohibitively inefficient. To address this issue, importance…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-23 Shengyi He , Guangxin Jiang , Henry Lam , Michael C. Fu

Importance sampling and independent Metropolis-Hastings (IMH) are among the fundamental building blocks of Monte Carlo methods. Both require a proposal distribution that globally approximates the target distribution. The Radon-Nikodym…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-17 George Deligiannidis , Pierre E. Jacob , El Mahdi Khribch , Guanyang Wang

In this paper, we consider the problem of numerical investigation of the counting statistics for a class of one-dimensional systems. Importance sampling, the cornerstone technique usually implemented for such problems, critically hinges on…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-08-12 Ivan N. Burenev , Satya N. Majumdar , Alberto Rosso

Adaptive importance samplers are adaptive Monte Carlo algorithms to estimate expectations with respect to some target distribution which \textit{adapt} themselves to obtain better estimators over a sequence of iterations. Although it is…

Computation · Statistics 2020-05-08 Ömer Deniz Akyildiz , Joaquín Míguez

An important statistical task in disease mapping problems is to identify divergent regions with unusually high or low risk of disease. Leave-one-out cross-validatory (LOOCV) model assessment is the gold standard for estimating predictive…

Applications · Statistics 2023-04-24 Longhai Li , Cindy X. Feng , Shi Qiu

Importance sampling with data-driven proposal distributions is widely used in practice. A common workflow first generates an auxiliary sample of size $N$ from an approximation of the target distribution, constructs a density estimate $\hat…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-20 Cathrine Aeckerle-Willems , Ilja Klebanov , Simon Weissmann

Bayesian methods have received increasing attention in medical research, where sensitivity analysis of prior distributions is essential. Such analyses typically require the evaluation of the posterior distribution of a parameter under…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-14 Tomohiro Ohigashi , Shonosuke Sugasawa

Slice sampling is a well-established Markov chain Monte Carlo method for (approximate) sampling of target distributions which are only known up to a normalizing constant. The method is based on choosing a new state on a slice, i.e., a…

Computation · Statistics 2025-12-22 Kevin Bitterlich , Daniel Rudolf , Björn Sprungk

Many Bayesian inference problems involve high-dimensional models where the performance of standard importance sampling (IS) methods often degrades rapidly as the dimensionality increases. Classical analyses of IS typically rely on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-29 Fabián González , Víctor Elvira , Joaquín Míguez

This paper considers Importance Sampling (IS) for the estimation of tail risks of a loss defined in terms of a sophisticated object such as a machine learning feature map or a mixed integer linear optimisation formulation. Assuming only…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-06-21 Anand Deo , Karthyek Murthy

Sequential directional importance sampling (SDIS) is an efficient adaptive simulation method for estimating failure probabilities. It expresses the failure probability as the product of a group of integrals that are easy to estimate,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-31 Kai Chenga , Iason Papaioannou , Daniel Straub

Growing scale of recommender systems require extensive tuning to respond to market dynamics and system changes. We address the challenge of tuning a large-scale ads recommendation platform with multiple continuous parameters influencing key…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-08 Kaushal Paneri , Michael Munje , Kailash Singh Maurya , Adith Swaminathan , Yifan Shi

Statistical signal processing applications usually require the estimation of some parameters of interest given a set of observed data. These estimates are typically obtained either by solving a multi-variate optimization problem, as in the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-27 D. Luengo , L. Martino , M. Bugallo , V. Elvira , S. Särkkä

Importance sampling, which involves sampling from a probability density function (PDF) proportional to the product of an importance weight function and a base PDF, is a powerful technique with applications in variance reduction, biased or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-10 Heasung Kim , Taekyun Lee , Hyeji Kim , Gustavo de Veciana

In Part I (arXiv:1911.00619) of this article, we proposed an importance sampling algorithm to compute rare-event probabilities in forward uncertainty quantification problems. The algorithm, which we termed the "Bayesian Inverse Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-06 Siddhant Wahal , George Biros

One of the main problems of importance sampling in Bayesian networks is representation of the importance function, which should ideally be as close as possible to the posterior joint distribution. Typically, we represent an importance…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-09 Changhe Yuan , Marek J. Druzdzel

We consider Particle Gibbs (PG) as a tool for Bayesian analysis of non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. PG is a Monte Carlo (MC) approximation of the standard Gibbs procedure which uses sequential MC (SMC) importance sampling inside…

Computation · Statistics 2018-04-18 Oliver Grothe , Tore Selland Kleppe , Roman Liesenfeld