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Related papers: Changepoint detection on a graph of time series

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Motivated by reduction of computational complexity, this work develops sign-error adaptive filtering algorithms for estimating time-varying system parameters. Different from the previous work on sign-error algorithms, the parameters are…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-11-17 Araz Hashemi , G. Yin , Le Yi Wang

We consider Bayesian analysis of a class of multiple changepoint models. While there are a variety of efficient ways to analyse these models if the parameters associated with each segment are independent, there are few general approaches…

Computation · Statistics 2009-10-19 Paul Fearnhead , Zhen Liu

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful tool for sampling from complex probability distributions. Despite its versatility, MCMC often suffers from strong autocorrelation and the negative sign problem, leading to slowing down the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-12-05 Synge Todo

Switching dynamical systems are an expressive model class for the analysis of time-series data. As in many fields within the natural and engineering sciences, the systems under study typically evolve continuously in time, it is natural to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-19 Lukas Köhs , Bastian Alt , Heinz Koeppl

Large continuous-time Markov chains with exponentially small transition rates arise in modeling complex systems in physics, chemistry and biology. We propose a constructive graph-algorithmic approach to determine the sequence of critical…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-02-01 Tingyue Gan , Maria Cameron

We present a Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for detecting hidden variables in a continuous time Bayesian network (CTBN), which uses reversible jumps in the sense defined by (Green 1995). In common with several…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-18 Blazej Miasojedow , Wojciech Niemiro , John Noble , Krzysztof Opalski

We propose a new Bayesian Markov switching regression model for multidimensional arrays (tensors) of binary time series. We assume a zero-inflated logit regression with time-varying parameters and apply it to multilayer temporal networks.…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-05 Monica Billio , Roberto Casarin , Matteo Iacopini

We study time-changed Markov processes to speed up the convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. The time-changed process is defined by adjusting the speed of time of a base process via a user-chosen, state-dependent…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-08 Andrea Bertazzi , Giorgos Vasdekis

We investigate sequential change point estimation and detection in univariate nonparametric settings, where a stream of independent observations from sub-Gaussian distributions with a common variance factor and piecewise-constant but…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-16 Yi Yu , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Daren Wang , Alessandro Rinaldo

Most studies in real time change-point detection either focus on the linear model or use the CUSUM method under classical assumptions on model errors. This paper considers the sequential change-point detection in a nonlinear quantile model.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-03 Gabriela Ciuperca

Forecasting time series on graphs is a fundamental problem in graph signal processing. When each entity of the network carries a vector of values for each time stamp instead of a scalar one, existing approaches resort to the use of product…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-28 Jelmer van der Hoeven , Alberto Natali , Geert Leus

Anomaly detection of time series, especially multivariate time series(time series with multiple sensors), has been focused on for several years. Though existing method has achieved great progress, there are several challenging problems to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-29 Weixuan Xiong , Xiaochen Sun

Many real world applications can be formulated as event forecasting on Continuous Time Dynamic Graphs (CTDGs) where the occurrence of a timed event between two entities is represented as an edge along with its occurrence timestamp in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-24 Xuhong Wang , Sirui Chen , Yixuan He , Minjie Wang , Quan Gan , Yupu Yang , Junchi Yan

We consider the consistency properties of a regularised estimator for the simultaneous identification of both changepoints and graphical dependency structure in multivariate time-series. Traditionally, estimation of Gaussian Graphical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-18 Alex J. Gibberd , Sandipan Roy

We propose a sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo (SMCMC) algorithm to sample from a sequence of probability distributions, corresponding to posterior distributions at different times in on-line applications. SMCMC proceeds as in usual MCMC…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-08-20 Yun Yang , David B. Dunson

The assumption of using a static graph to represent multivariate time-varying signals oversimplifies the complexity of modeling their interactions over time. We propose a Dynamic Multi-hop model that captures dynamic interactions among…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-11-26 Yi Yan , Fengfan Zhao , Ercan Engin Kuruoglu

This manuscript studies the unsupervised change point detection problem in time series of graphs using a decoder-only latent space model. The proposed framework consists of learnable prior distributions for low-dimensional graph…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-18 Yik Lun Kei , Jialiang Li , Hangjian Li , Yanzhen Chen , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

This paper describes a novel approach to change-point detection when the observed high-dimensional data may have missing elements. The performance of classical methods for change-point detection typically scales poorly with the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-11 Yao Xie , Jiaji Huang , Rebecca Willett

Multivariate time series analysis is a vital but challenging task, with multidisciplinary applicability, tackling the characterization of multiple interconnected variables over time and their dependencies. Traditional methodologies often…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Vanessa Freitas Silva , Maria Eduarda Silva , Pedro Ribeiro , Fernando Silva

Sequential change-point detection for graphs is a fundamental problem for streaming network data types and has wide applications in social networks and power systems. Given fixed vertices and a sequence of random graphs, the objective is to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-12 Liyan Xie , Yao Xie