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We proposed a probabilistic approach to joint modeling of participants' reliability and humans' regularity in crowdsourced affective studies. Reliability measures how likely a subject will respond to a question seriously; and regularity…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-01-09 Jianbo Ye , Jia Li , Michelle G. Newman , Reginald B. Adams , James Z. Wang

The Random Utility Model (RUM) is the leading model to represent the aggregate choices of a heterogeneous population of preference maximizers. We show that if (and only if) preferences are sufficiently uncorrelated, RUM choices can also be…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-05-29 Daniele Caliari , Henrik Petri

Even though classic theories and models of discrete choice pose man as a rational being, it has been shown extensively that people persistently violate rationality in their actual choices. Recent models of decision-making take these…

Statistical samples, in order to be representative, have to be drawn from a population in a random and unbiased way. Nevertheless, it is common practice in the field of model-based diagnosis to make estimations from (biased) best-first…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-08-05 Patrick Rodler , Fatima Elichanova

We consider a hierarchically structured population in which the amount of resources an individual has access to is affected by individuals that are larger, and that the intake of resources by an individual only affects directly the growth…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2024-07-15 Carles Barril , Àngel Calsina , József Z. Farkas

We investigate how individuals form expectations about population behavior using statistical inference based on observations of their social relations. Misperceptions about others' connectedness and behavior arise from sampling bias…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-05-27 Andreas Bjerre-Nielsen , Martin Benedikt Busch

Clinical trials usually target average treatment effects, but treatment decisions are made for individuals. This tension motivates a common criticism of evidence-based medicine: a treatment that is beneficial on average may be inappropriate…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-29 Zach Shahn , Mats Stensrud

This article is a presentation of specific recent results describing scaling limits of individual-based models. Thanks to them, we wish to relate the time-scales typical of demographic dynamics and natural selection to the parameters of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-01 Aurélien Velleret

Observation of other people's choices can provide useful information in many circumstances. However, individuals may not utilize this information efficiently, i.e., they may make decision-making errors in social interactions. In this paper,…

General Economics · Economics 2021-08-10 Mohsen Foroughifar

Two main approaches for evaluating the quality of machine-generated rationales are: 1) using human rationales as a gold standard; and 2) automated metrics based on how rationales affect model behavior. An open question, however, is how…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-10-13 Samuel Carton , Anirudh Rathore , Chenhao Tan

In high-stakes domains like healthcare, users often expect that sharing personal information with machine learning systems will yield tangible benefits, such as more accurate diagnoses and clearer explanations of contributing factors.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Louisa Cornelis , Guillermo Bernárdez , Haewon Jeong , Nina Miolane

Machine learning applications often require calibrated predictions, e.g. a 90\% credible interval should contain the true outcome 90\% of the times. However, typical definitions of calibration only require this to hold on average, and offer…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-10 Shengjia Zhao , Tengyu Ma , Stefano Ermon

In a typical model of private information and choice under uncertainty, a decision maker observes a signal, updates her prior beliefs using Bayes rule, and maximizes her expected utility. If the decision maker's utility function satisfies…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-12-04 Tanay Raj Bhatt

Researchers in psychology characterize decision-making as a process of eliminating options. While statistical modelling typically focuses on the eventual choice, we analyze consideration sets describing, for each survey participant, all…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-27 Dominik Kreiss , Thomas Augustin

Despite widespread success in language understanding and generation, large language models (LLMs) exhibit unclear and often inconsistent behavior when faced with tasks that require probabilistic reasoning. In this work, we present the first…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Mobina Pournemat , Keivan Rezaei , Gaurang Sriramanan , Arman Zarei , Jiaxiang Fu , Yang Wang , Hamid Eghbalzadeh , Soheil Feizi

We study a class of ordinary differential equations with a non-Lipschitz point singularity, which admit non-unique solutions through this point. As a selection criterion, we introduce stochastic regularizations depending on the parameter…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-11-20 Theodore D. Drivas , Alexei A. Mailybaev , Artem Raibekas

Eliciting preferences from human judgements is inherently imprecise, yet most decision analysis methods force a single priority vector from pairwise comparisons, discarding the information embedded in inconsistencies. We instead leverage…

General Economics · Economics 2026-02-27 Salvatore Greco , Sajid Siraj , Michele Lundy

We study a distributed learning process observed in human groups and other social animals. This learning process appears in settings in which each individual in a group is trying to decide over time, in a distributed manner, which option to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-05-10 L. Elisa Celis , Peter M. Krafft , Nisheeth K. Vishnoi

Consider Plurality with random tie-breaking. This paper uses standard axiomatic extensions of preferences over elements to preferences over sets (Kelly, Gardenfors, Responsiveness) to characterize all better-replies of a voter under…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2016-09-07 Reshef Meir

Some practical results are derived for population inference based on a sample, under the two qualitative conditions of 'ignorability' and exchangeability. These are the 'Histogram Theorem', for predicting the outcome of a non-sampled member…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-12 Jonathan Rougier