Related papers: Modelling COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics in Ghana

In this article we propose a compartmental model for the dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). We take into account the presence of asymptomatic infections and the main policies that have been adopted so far to contain the…

The goal of this study is to establish a general framework for predicting the so-called critical Turning Period in an infectious disease epidemic such as the COVID-19 outbreak in China early this year. This framework enabled a timely…

COVID-19, also known as Novel Coronavirus Disease, is a highly contagious disease that first surfaced in China in late 2019. SARS-CoV-2 is a coronavirus that belongs to the vast family of coronaviruses that causes this disease. The sickness…

COVID-19 pandemic has become a major threat to the country. Till date, well tested medication or antidote is not available to cure this disease. According to WHO reports, COVID-19 is a severe acute respiratory syndrome which is transmitted…

The question of how SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted remains surprisingly controversial today, especially with reference to airborne transmission. In fact, despite a large body of scientific evidence, health and regulatory authorities still…

In this study, we propose a time-dependent Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model for the analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak in three different countries, the United States of America, Italy and Iceland using public…

In this study we investigate a novel approach to stochastically perturb the disease transmission coefficient, which is a key parameter in susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) models. Motivated by the papers [2] and [5], we perturb the…

The transmission and evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are of paramount importance to the controlling and combating of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Currently, near 15,000 SARS-CoV-2…

Repeat asymptomatic testing in order to identify and quarantine infectious individuals has become a widely-used intervention to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In some workplaces, and in particular health and social care settings with…

Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions…

We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new…

In this paper, we conduct mathematical and numerical analyses to address the following crucial questions for COVID-19: (Q1) Is it possible to contain COVID-19? (Q2) When will be the peak and the end of the epidemic? (Q3) How do the…

In this paper we analyze the effects of commuting and social inequalities for the epidemic development of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). With this aim we consider a SEIRD (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered and dead by disease)…

In this paper the risk of infection from SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant of passengers sharing a car cabin with an infected subject for a 30-min journey is estimated through an integrated approach combining a recently developed predictive…

In this paper we propose a data-driven model for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and use it to design optimal control strategies of human-mobility restrictions that both curb the epidemic and minimize the economic costs associated with…

The fast transmission rate of COVID-19 worldwide has made this virus the most important challenge of year 2020. Many mitigation policies have been imposed by the governments at different regional levels (country, state, county, and city) to…

The worldwide spread of COVID-19 has called for fast advancement of new modelling strategies to estimate its unprecedented spread. Here, we introduce a model based on the fundamental SIR equations with a stochastic disorder by a random…

Understanding the number of individuals who have been infected with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, and the extent to which social distancing policies have been effective at limiting its spread, are critical for effective policy going…

Characterising drivers of SARS-CoV-2 circulation is crucial for understanding COVID-19 because of the severity of control measures adopted during the pandemic. Whole genome sequence data augmented with demographic metadata provides the best…

This paper develops an individual-based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic…