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Classic results show that the Hawkes self-exciting point process can be viewed as a collection of temporal clusters, where exogenously generated initial events give rise to endogenously driven descendant events. This perspective provides…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-12-12 Andrew Daw

We are interested in the problem of classifying Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHP) paths coming from several classes. MHP form a versatile family of point processes that models interactions between connected individuals within a network.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-24 Charlotte Dion-Blanc , Christophe Denis , Laure Sansonnet , Romain Edmond Lacoste

The Hawkes process models self-exciting event streams, requiring a strictly non-negative and stable stochastic intensity. Standard identification methods enforce these properties using non-negative causal bases, yielding conservative…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-19 Xinhui Rong , Girish N. Nair

The Hawkes process is a widely used model in many areas, such as finance, seismology, neuroscience, epidemiology, and social sciences. Estimation of the Hawkes process from continuous observations of a sample path is relatively…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-23 Feng Chen , Jeffrey Kwan , Tom Stindl

Gun violence and mass shootings are high-profile epidemiological issues facing the United States with questions regarding their contagiousness gaining prevalence in news media. Through the use of nonparametric Hawkes processes, we examine…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-09 Peter Boyd , James Molyneux

Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPPs) arise naturally in medical, social, commercial, and financial domains. However, existing Transformer-based methods mostly inject temporal information only via positional encodings, relying on shared…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-25 Xinzi Tan , Kejian Zhang , Junhan Yu , Doudou Zhou

In a discrete-time setting, we consider an arrival process $\left\{\xi_n \, \middle| \, n = 1, 2, \ldots \right\}$, which models the occurrence of events, and a corresponding point process $\left\{H_n \, \middle| \, n = 1, 2, \ldots…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Utpal Jyoti Deba Sarma , Dharmaraja Selvamuthu

Many networks have event-driven dynamics (such as communication, social media and criminal networks), where the mean rate of the events occurring at a node in the network changes according to the occurrence of other events in the network.…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-03-22 Santitissadeekorn N. , Delahaies S. , Lloyd D. J. B

Among the statistical tools for online information diffusion modeling, both epidemic models and Hawkes point processes are popular choices. The former originate from epidemiology, and consider information as a viral contagion which spreads…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-05-18 Marian-Andrei Rizoiu , Swapnil Mishra , Quyu Kong , Mark Carman , Lexing Xie

Graph-based models require aggregating information in the graph from neighbourhoods of different sizes. In particular, when the data exhibit varying levels of smoothness on the graph, a multi-scale approach is required to capture the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-22 Felix L. Opolka , Yin-Cong Zhi , Pietro Liò , Xiaowen Dong

Hawkes stochastic point process models have emerged as valuable statistical tools for analyzing viral contagion. The spatiotemporal Hawkes process characterizes the speeds at which viruses spread within human populations. Unfortunately,…

Computation · Statistics 2024-07-17 Seyoon Ko , Marc A. Suchard , Andrew J. Holbrook

Many event sequence data exhibit mutually exciting or inhibiting patterns. Reliable detection of such temporal dependency is crucial for scientific investigation. The de facto model is the Multivariate Hawkes Process (MHP), whose impact…

Applications · Statistics 2023-05-31 Yu Chen , Fengpei Li , Anderson Schneider , Yuriy Nevmyvaka , Asohan Amarasingham , Henry Lam

Patient healthcare utilization consists of irregularly time-stamped events, such as outpatient visits, inpatient admissions, and emergency encounters, forming individualized care trajectories. Modeling these trajectories is crucial for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Saumya Pandey , Varun Chandola

Events in an online social network can be categorized roughly into endogenous events, where users just respond to the actions of their neighbors within the network, or exogenous events, where users take actions due to drives external to the…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2014-08-20 Mehrdad Farajtabar , Nan Du , Manuel Gomez Rodriguez , Isabel Valera , Hongyuan Zha , Le Song

The extent to which a matching engine can cloud the modelling of underlying order submission and management processes in a financial market remains an unanswered concern with regards to market models. Here we consider a 10-variate Hawkes…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2021-08-18 Ivan Jericevich , Patrick Chang , Tim Gebbie

We introduce a multivariate Hawkes process that accounts for the dynamics of market prices through the impact of market order arrivals at microstructural level. Our model is a point process mainly characterized by 4 kernels associated with…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2013-01-08 E. Bacry , J. F Muzy

We characterize a Hawkes point process with kernel proportional to the probability density function of Mittag-Leffler random variables. This kernel decays as a power law with exponent $\beta +1 \in (1,2]$. Several analytical results can be…

Cascading chains of events are a salient feature of many real-world social, biological, and financial networks. In social networks, social reciprocity accounts for retaliations in gang interactions, proxy wars in nation-state conflicts, or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-07-05 Eric C. Hall , Rebecca M. Willett

Social networks have a small number of large hubs, and a large number of small dense communities. We propose a generative model that captures both hub and dense structures. Based on recent results about graphons on line graphs, our model is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-10 Sevvandi Kandanaarachchi , Cheng Soon Ong

Due to its low computational cost, Lasso is an attractive regularization method for high-dimensional statistical settings. In this paper, we consider multivariate counting processes depending on an unknown function parameter to be estimated…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-04-08 Niels Richard Hansen , Patricia Reynaud-Bouret , Vincent Rivoirard