Related papers: Proper Scoring Rules and Domination
Scoring rules measure the deviation between a probabilistic forecast and reality. Strictly proper scoring rules have the property that for any forecast, the mathematical expectation of the score of a forecast p by the lights of p is…
We provide self-contained proof of a theorem relating probabilistic coherence of forecasts to their non-domination by rival forecasts with respect to any proper scoring rule. The theorem appears to be new but is closely related to results…
We give an overview of some uses of proper scoring rules in statistical inference, including frequentist estimation theory and Bayesian model selection with improper priors.
Scoring rules serve to quantify predictive performance. A scoring rule is proper if truth telling is an optimal strategy in expectation. Subject to customary regularity conditions, every scoring rule can be made proper, by applying a…
Scoring rules are used to evaluate the quality of predictions that take the form of probability distributions. A scoring rule is strictly proper if its expected value is uniquely minimized by the true probability distribution. One of the…
We investigate differences between a simple Dominance Principle applied to sums of fair prices for variables and dominance applied to sums of forecasts for variables scored by proper scoring rules. In particular, we consider differences…
Proper scoring rules are methods for encouraging honest assessment of probability distributions. Just like likelihood, a proper scoring rule can be applied to supply an unbiased estimating equation for any statistical model, and the theory…
Learning models do not in general imply that weakly dominated strategies are irrelevant or justify the related concept of "forward induction," because rational agents may use dominated strategies as experiments to learn how opponents play,…
We construct a model of expert prediction where predictions can influence the state of the world. Under this model, we show through theoretical and numerical results that proper scoring rules can incentivize experts to manipulate the world…
Proper scoring rules have been a subject of growing interest in recent years, not only as tools for evaluation of probabilistic forecasts but also as methods for estimating probability distributions. In this article, we review the…
From the research of several recent papers, we are concerned with domination number in cubic graphs and give a sufficient condition for Reed's conjecture.
We view voting rules as classifiers that assign a winner (a class) to a profile of voters' preferences (an instance). We propose to apply techniques from formal explainability, most notably abductive and contrastive explanations, to…
This paper studies a dominance relation among scoring rules with respect to avoiding the selection of the Condorcet loser. In a voting model with three or more alternatives, we say that a scoring rule $f$ Condorcet-loser-dominates…
People are commonly interested in predicting a statistical property of a random event such as mean and variance. Proper scoring rules assess the quality of predictions and require that the expected score gets uniquely maximized at the…
Our aim is to give for some classes non-additive measures some limit theorems. For balanced games we obtain a weak and strong law of large numbers for bounded random variables, a sharper conclusion is obtain with exact games. We provide an…
Proper scoring rules are an essential tool to assess the predictive performance of probabilistic forecasts. However, propriety alone does not ensure an informative characterization of predictive performance and it is recommended to compare…
Two new techniques are introduced into the theory of the domination game. The cutting lemma bounds the game domination number of a partially dominated graph with the game domination number of suitably modified partially dominated graph. The…
In this paper, we study efficient domination in regular graphs.
In situations where forecasters are scored on the quality of their probabilistic predictions, it is standard to use `proper' scoring rules to perform such scoring. These rules are desirable because they give forecasters no incentive to lie…
Admissible strategies, i.e. those that are not dominated by any other strategy, are a typical rationality notion in game theory. In many classes of games this is justified by results showing that any strategy is admissible or dominated by…