Related papers: Climate network and complexity based El Ni\~no for…
Forecasting the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been a subject of vigorous research due to the important role of the phenomenon in climate dynamics and its worldwide socioeconomic impacts. Over the past decades, numerous models for…
We investigate a low-dimensional slow-fast model to understand the dynamical origin of El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation. A close inspection of the system dynamics using several bifurcation plots reveals that a sudden large expansion of the…
The recharge oscillator (RO) model has been successfully used to understand different aspects of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Fitting the RO to observations and climate model simulations consistently suggests that ENSO is a…
The predictability of extreme winter regimes in the regions of Northern Eurasia depending on El Ni\~no phenomena is assessed using data from long-term meteorological observations. The frequency of extremely warm and extremely cold winters…
Accurate prediction of global sea surface temperature at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is critical for drought and flood forecasting, as well as for improving disaster preparedness in human society. Government departments or…
The Atacama desert stands as the most arid, non-polar, region on Earth and has accommodated a considerable portion of the world's ground-based astronomical observatories for an extended period. The comprehension of factors important for…
Seasonal climate forecasts are socioeconomically important for managing the impacts of extreme weather events and for planning in sectors like agriculture and energy. Climate predictability on seasonal timescales is tied to boundary effects…
We propose a scenario that explains many of the Pacific Ocean climate phenomena that are called El Nino/ La Nina. This scenario requires an event, which we call a Super-Nino Event. It dominates other phenomena when it occurs. A template of…
The complex network framework has been successfully applied to the analysis of climatological data, providing, for example, a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying reduced predictability during El Ni\~no or La Ni\~na years.…
Though the Boltzmann-Gibbs framework of equilibrium statistical mechanics has been successful in many arenas, it is clearly inadequate for describing many interesting natural phenomena driven far from equilibrium. The simplest step towards…
Weather forecasting plays a critical role in various sectors, driving decision-making and risk management. However, traditional methods often struggle to capture the complex dynamics of meteorological systems, particularly in the presence…
This article analyzes SST remote forcing on the interannual variability of Sahel summer (June-September) moderate (below 75th percentile) and heavy (above 75th percentile) daily precipitation events during the period 1981-2016. Evidence is…
We construct a network from climate records of atmospheric temperature at surface level, at different geographical sites in the globe, using reanalysis data from years 1948-2010. We find that the network correlates with the North Atlantic…
The 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States listed climate change as a serious threat to national security. Climate intervention methods, such as stratospheric aerosol injection, have been proposed as mitigation strategies, but…
We propose Echo State Networks (ESNs) to predict the statistics of extreme events in a turbulent flow. We train the ESNs on small datasets that lack information about the extreme events. We asses whether the networks are able to extrapolate…
Skillful seasonal prediction of lightning is crucial over several global hotspot regions, as it causes severe damages to infrastructures and losses of human life. While major emphasis has been given for predicting rainfall, prediction of…
Spatiotemporal variations in thunderstorm occurrence frequency are considered here using an environmental dataset derived from ERA5 reanalysis data. Interannual variability in the thunderstorm environments is examined for the period…
The Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is modelled with the help of a simple model representing a classical damped oscillator forced by external forcing. Eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the mean equatorial Pacific thermocline…
An estimate of the net direction of climate interactions in different geographical regions is made by constructing a directed climate network from a regular latitude-longitude grid of nodes, using a directionality index (DI) based on…
Annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts are frequently modeled as a Poisson process with a state-dependent rate. We provide a lower bound on the forecasting error of this class of models. Remarkably we find that this bound is…