Related papers: How good is Good-Turing for Markov samples?

Learning a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is a fundamental problem in machine learning, learning theory, and statistics. One notion of learning a GMM is proper learning: here, the goal is to find a mixture of $k$ Gaussians $\mathcal{M}$ that…

Positive continuous outcomes with a point mass at zero are prevalent in biomedical research. To model the point mass at zero and to provide marginalized covariate effect estimates, marginalized two part models (MTP) have been developed for…

This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in a large class of models with hidden Markov regimes. We investigate consistency of the ML estimator and local asymptotic normality for the models under general conditions which allow…

Transit timing variations (TTVs) are a valuable tool to determine the masses and orbits of transiting planets in multi-planet systems. TTVs can be readily modeled given knowledge of the interacting planets' orbital configurations and…

We consider $n\times n$ random matrices $M_{n}=\sum_{\alpha =1}^{m}{\tau _{\alpha }}\mathbf{y}_{\alpha }\otimes \mathbf{y}_{\alpha }$, where $\tau _{\alpha }\in \mathbb{R}$, $\{\mathbf{y}_{\alpha }\}_{\alpha =1}^{m}$ are i.i.d. isotropic…

The telegraph process $X(t)$, $t>0$, (Goldstein, 1951) and the geometric telegraph process $S(t) = s_0 \exp\{(\mu -\frac12\sigma^2)t + \sigma X(t)\}$ with $\mu$ a known constant and $\sigma>0$ a parameter are supposed to be observed at…

The classical asymptotic theory for parametric $M$-estimators guarantees that, in the limit of infinite sample size, the excess risk has a chi-square type distribution, even in the misspecified case. We demonstrate how self-concordance of…

Given a Gaussian Markov random field, we consider the problem of selecting a subset of variables to observe which minimizes the total expected squared prediction error of the unobserved variables. We first show that finding an exact…

In this paper we consider the problem of sampling from the low-temperature exponential random graph model (ERGM). The usual approach is via Markov chain Monte Carlo, but Bhamidi et al. showed that any local Markov chain suffers from an…

The problem of estimating discovery probabilities originated in the context of statistical ecology, and in recent years it has become popular due to its frequent appearance in challenging applications arising in genetics, bioinformatics,…

In this paper, we analyze the convergence rate of a collapsed Gibbs sampler for crossed random effects models. Our results apply to a substantially larger range of models than previous works, including models that incorporate missingness…

Gibbs samplers are preeminent Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms used in computational physics and statistical computing. Yet, their most fundamental properties, such as relations between convergence characteristics of their various…

This article studies the expected occupancy probabilities on an alphabet. Unlike the standard situation, where observations are assumed to be independent and identically distributed (iid), we assume that they follow a regime switching…

Nested sampling is a simulation method for approximating marginal likelihoods proposed by Skilling (2006). We establish that nested sampling has an approximation error that vanishes at the standard Monte Carlo rate and that this error is…

Iteration of randomly chosen quadratic maps defines a Markov process: X_{n+1}=\epsilon_{n+1}X_n(1-X_n), where \epsilon_n are i.i.d. with values in the parameter space [0,4] of quadratic maps F_{\theta}(x)=\theta x(1-x). Its study is of…

Consider a sequence of continuous-time irreducible reversible Markov chains and a sequence of initial distributions, $\mu_n$. The sequence is said to exhibit $\mu_n$-cutoff if the convergence to stationarity in total variation distance is…

Motivated by broad applications in reinforcement learning and machine learning, this paper considers the popular stochastic gradient descent (SGD) when the gradients of the underlying objective function are sampled from Markov processes.…

In this work, we investigate Gaussian Mixture Models ({\it abbrv} GMM) and the related problem of non parametric maximum likelihood estimation ({\it abbrv} NPMLE) from the perspective of statistical mechanics. In particular, we establish…

We consider the problem of predicting the next observation given a sequence of past observations, and consider the extent to which accurate prediction requires complex algorithms that explicitly leverage long-range dependencies. Perhaps…

We find the exact typical error exponent of constant composition generalized random Gilbert-Varshamov (RGV) codes over DMCs channels with generalized likelihood decoding. We show that the typical error exponent of the RGV ensemble is equal…