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Measuring treatment effects in observational studies is challenging because of confounding bias. Confounding occurs when a variable affects both the treatment and the outcome. Traditional methods such as propensity score matching estimate…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-23 Bevan I. Smith , Charles Chimedza

Weighting methods are popular tools for estimating causal effects; assessing their robustness under unobserved confounding is important in practice. In the following paper, we introduce a new set of sensitivity models called "variance-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-14 Melody Huang , Samuel D. Pimentel

Instrumental variable methods are popular choices in combating unmeasured confounding to obtain less biased effect estimates. However, we demonstrate that alternative methods may give less biased estimates depending on the nature of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-21 Yun Li , Yoonseok Lee , Friedrich K Port , Bruce M Robinson

Estimating the causal effect of a treatment or health policy with observational data can be challenging due to an imbalance of and a lack of overlap between treated and control covariate distributions. In the presence of limited overlap,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-24 Martha Barnard , Jared D. Huling , Julian Wolfson

This paper develops a method to conduct causal inference in the presence of unobserved confounders by leveraging networks with homophily, a frequently observed tendency to form edges with similar nodes. I introduce a concept of asymptotic…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-04 Vincent Starck

Unmeasured spatial confounding complicates exposure effect estimation in environmental health studies. This problem is exacerbated in studies with multiple health outcomes and environmental exposure variables, as the source and magnitude of…

A common concern when trying to draw causal inferences from observational data is that the measured covariates are insufficiently rich to account for all sources of confounding. In practice, many of the covariates may only be proxies of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-31 Oliver Dukes , Ilya Shpitser , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Sensitivity analysis informs causal inference by assessing the sensitivity of conclusions to departures from assumptions. The consistency assumption states that there are no hidden versions of treatment and that the outcome arising…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-29 Brian Knaeble , Qinyun Lin , Erich Kummerfeld , Kenneth A. Frank

The strength of evidence provided by epidemiological and observational studies is inherently limited by the potential for unmeasured confounding. Researchers should present a quantified sensitivity to unmeasured confounding analysis that is…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-16 Lucy D'Agostino McGowan , Robert A. Greevy,

To unbiasedly estimate a causal effect on an outcome unconfoundedness is often assumed. If there is sufficient knowledge on the underlying causal structure then existing confounder selection criteria can be used to select subsets of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-20 Jenny Häggström

Causal Machine Learning has emerged as a powerful tool for flexibly estimating causal effects from observational data in both industry and academia. However, causal inference from observational data relies on untestable assumptions about…

Hill's specificity criterion has been highly influential in biomedical and epidemiological research. However, it remains controversial and its application often relies on subjective and qualitative analysis without a comprehensive and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Wang Miao

Estimating treatment effects using observation data often relies on the assumption of no unmeasured confounders. However, unmeasured confounding variables may exist in many real-world problems. It can lead to a biased estimation without…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-19 Namhwa Lee , Shujie Ma

Propensity score weighting is a tool for causal inference to adjust for measured confounders. Survey data are often collected under complex sampling designs such as multistage cluster sampling, which presents challenges for propensity score…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-27 Shu Yang

We examine interval estimation of the effect of a treatment T on an outcome Y given the existence of an unobserved confounder U. Using H\"older's inequality, we derive a set of bounds on the confounding bias |E[Y|T=t]-E[Y|do(T=t)]| based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-14 Serge Assaad , Shuxi Zeng , Henry Pfister , Fan Li , Lawrence Carin

How should researchers analyze randomized experiments in which the main outcome is latent and measured in multiple ways but each measure contains some degree of error? We first identify a critical study-specific noncomparability problem in…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-13 Jiawei Fu , Donald P. Green

Observational data is increasingly used as a means for making individual-level causal predictions and intervention recommendations. The foremost challenge of causal inference from observational data is hidden confounding, whose presence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-30 Nathan Kallus , Aahlad Manas Puli , Uri Shalit

Estimating causal effects in a target population with unmeasured confounders is challenging, especially when instrumental variables (IVs) are unavailable. However, IVs from auxiliary populations with similar problems can help infer causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-06 Wei Li , Jiapeng Liu , Peng Ding , Zhi Geng

We consider the problem of estimating a causal effect in a multi-domain setting. The causal effect of interest is confounded by an unobserved confounder and can change between the different domains. We assume that we have access to a proxy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-30 Manuel Iglesias-Alonso , Felix Schur , Julius von Kügelgen , Jonas Peters

Conventional methods in causal effect inferencetypically rely on specifying a valid set of control variables. When this set is unknown or misspecified, inferences will be erroneous. We propose a method for inferring average causal effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-14 Ludvig Hult , Dave Zachariah
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