Related papers: Mortality Forecasting using Factor Models: Time-va…
The EU Solvency II directive recommends insurance companies to pay more attention to the risk management methods. The sense of risk management is the ability to quantify risk and apply methods that reduce uncertainty. In life insurance, the…
Widespread population aging has made it critical to understand death rates at old ages. However, studying mortality at old ages is challenging because the data are sparse: numbers of survivors and deaths get smaller and smaller with age. We…
We develop an estimation methodology for a factor model for high-dimensional matrix-valued time series, where common stochastic trends and common stationary factors can be present. We study, in particular, the estimation of (row and column)…
In this article we investigate a state-space representation of the Lee-Carter model which is a benchmark stochastic mortality model for forecasting age-specific death rates. Existing relevant literature focuses mainly on mortality…
A major challenge of climate change adaptation is to assess the effect of changing weather on human health. In spite of an increasing literature on the weather-related health subject, many aspect of the relationship are not known, limiting…
This paper presents a general-purpose formulation of a large class of discrete-time planning problems, with hybrid state and control-spaces, as factored transition systems. Factoring allows state transitions to be described as the…
In this paper we investigate the flexibility of matrix distributions for the modeling of mortality. Starting from a simple Gompertz law, we show how the introduction of matrix-valued parameters via inhomogeneous phase-type distributions can…
Estimating the covariance of asset returns, i.e., the risk model, is a key component of financial portfolio construction and evaluation. Most risk modeling approaches produce a factor model that decomposes the asset variability into two…
In low-resource settings where vital registration of death is not routine it is often of critical interest to determine and study the cause of death (COD) for individuals and the cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) for populations.…
In modeling multivariate time series, it is important to allow time-varying smoothness in the mean and covariance process. In particular, there may be certain time intervals exhibiting rapid changes and others in which changes are slow. If…
In usual demographic analysis, force of mortality is a function of one variable, that is, of age. In this article bi-variate and multivariate force of mortality functions are introduced for the first time to explain mortality differentials.…
Current supervised learning can learn spurious correlation during the data-fitting process, imposing issues regarding interpretability, out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization, and robustness. To avoid spurious correlation, we propose a…
Patients with breast cancer tend to die from other diseases, so for studies that focus on breast cancer, a competing risks model is more appropriate. Considering subdistribution hazard ratio, which is used often, limited to model…
We propose a new factor analysis framework and estimators of the factors and loadings that are robust to certain weak factors in a large $N$ and large $T$ setting. Our framework, by simultaneously considering all quantile levels of the…
Unmeasured confounding can severely bias causal effect estimates from spatiotemporal observational data, especially when the confounders do not vary smoothly in time and space. In this work, we develop a method for addressing unmeasured…
Several fundamental and closely interconnected issues related to factor models are reviewed and discussed: dynamic versus static loadings, rate-strong versus rate-weak factors, the concept of weakly common component recently introduced by…
The Matrix Factorization models, sometimes called the latent factor models, are a family of methods in the recommender system research area to (1) generate the latent factors for the users and the items and (2) predict users' ratings on…
This article presents factor copula approaches to model temporal dependency of non-Gaussian (continuous/discrete) longitudinal data. Factor copula models are canonical vine copulas which explain the underlying dependence structure of a…
Latent factor models have achieved great success in personalized recommendations, but they are also notoriously difficult to explain. In this work, we integrate regression trees to guide the learning of latent factor models for…
Pervasive cross-section dependence is increasingly recognized as a characteristic of economic data and the approximate factor model provides a useful framework for analysis. Assuming a strong factor structure where $\Lop\Lo/N^\alpha$ is…