Related papers: Dynamic modeling of mortality via mixtures of skew…
How long people live depends on their health, and how it changes with age. Individual health can be tracked by the accumulation of age-related health deficits. The fraction of age-related deficits is a simple quantitative measure of human…
For many infectious disease outbreaks, the at-risk population changes their behavior in response to the outbreak severity, causing the transmission dynamics to change in real-time. Behavioral change is often ignored in epidemic modeling…
This paper sets out a forecasting method that employs a mixture of parametric functions to capture the pattern of fertility with respect to age. The overall level of cohort fertility is decomposed over the range of fertile ages using a…
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading is commonly carried out on secondary case…
This study introduces a novel generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) for mortality modelling, utilizing the mortality covariate $k_t$ as proposed by Dastranj-Kolar. Our findings indicate that the GAMM effectively addresses this…
In this paper we explore the life expectancy limits by based on the stochastic modeling of mortality and applying the first exit or hitting time theory of a stochastic process. The main assumption is that the health state or the "vitality",…
We investigate joint modeling of longevity trends using the spatial statistical framework of Gaussian Process regression. Our analysis is motivated by the Human Mortality Database (HMD) that provides unified raw mortality tables for nearly…
The EU Solvency II directive recommends insurance companies to pay more attention to the risk management methods. The sense of risk management is the ability to quantify risk and apply methods that reduce uncertainty. In life insurance, the…
A widely-used model for determining the long-term health impacts of public health interventions, often called a "multistate lifetable", requires estimates of incidence, case fatality, and sometimes also remission rates, for multiple…
Demographic and health indicators may exhibit short or large short-term shocks; for example, armed conflicts, epidemics, or famines may cause shocks in period measures of life expectancy. Statistical models for estimating historical trends…
We describe a new method for evaluating Bayes factors. The key idea is to introduce a hypermodel in which the competing models are components of a mixture distribution. Inference for the mixing probabilities then yields estimates of the…
Aging is a multidimensional process where phenotypes change at varying rates. Longitudinal studies of aging typically involve following a cohort of individuals over the course of several years. This design is hindered by cost, attrition,…
We introduce a novel and scalable Bayesian framework for multivariate-density-density regression (DDR), designed to model relationships between multivariate distributions. Our approach addresses the critical issue of distributions residing…
Ignoring the differences between countries, human reproductive and dispersal behaviors can be described by some standardized models, so whether there is a universal law of population growth hidden in the abundant and unstructured data from…
Degradation data are considered for assessing reliability in highly reliable systems. The usual assumption is that degradation units come from a homogeneous population. But in presence of high variability in the manufacturing process, this…
We develop a flexible Erlang mixture model for survival analysis. The model for the survival density is built from a structured mixture of Erlang densities, mixing on the integer shape parameter with a common scale parameter. The mixture…
The hazard function represents one of the main quantities of interest in the analysis of survival data. We propose a general approach for parametrically modelling the dynamics of the hazard function using systems of autonomous ordinary…
Many problems in the geophysical sciences demand the ability to calibrate the parameters and predict the time evolution of complex dynamical models using sequentially-collected data. Here we introduce a general methodology for the joint…
We consider the problem of selecting deterministic or stochastic models for a biological, ecological, or environmental dynamical process. In most cases, one prefers either deterministic or stochastic models as candidate models based on…
Age-dependent dynamics is an important characteristic of many infectious diseases. Age-group epidemic models describe the infection dynamics in different age-groups by allowing to set distinct parameter values for each. However, such models…