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Synthetic Control Methods (SCMs) have become a fundamental tool for comparative case studies. The core idea behind SCMs is to estimate treatment effects by predicting counterfactual outcomes for a treated unit using a weighted combination…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-10 Masahiro Kato , Akari Ohda

Counterfactual reasoning is an important paradigm applicable in many fields, such as healthcare, economics, and education. In this work, we propose a novel method to address the issue of \textit{selection bias}. We learn two groups of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-20 Zichen Zhang , Qingfeng Lan , Lei Ding , Yue Wang , Negar Hassanpour , Russell Greiner

A common approach to constructing a Synthetic Control unit is to fit on the outcome variable and covariates in pre-treatment time periods, but it has been shown by Ferman and Pinto (2019) that this approach does not provide asymptotic…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-03-07 Joseph Fry

In this paper, a method to synthesize controllers using finite time convergence control barrier functions guided by linear temporal logic specifications for continuous time multi-agent dynamical systems is proposed. Finite time convergence…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-08-08 Mohit Srinivasan , Samuel Coogan , Magnus Egerstedt

There has been considerable recent interest in explainability in AI, especially with black-box machine learning models. As correctly observed by the planning community, when the application at hand is not a single-shot decision or…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-14 Vaishak Belle

We study the problem of controlling multi-agent systems under a set of signal temporal logic tasks. Signal temporal logic is a formalism that is used to express time and space constraints for dynamical systems. Recent methods to solve the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-11-26 Lars Lindemann , Dimos V. Dimarogonas

The Synthetic Control method (SC) has become a valuable tool for estimating causal effects. Originally designed for single-treated unit scenarios, it has recently found applications in high-dimensional disaggregated settings with multiple…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-28 Ye Shen , Rui Song , Alberto Abadie

Among recent developments in time series forecasting methods, deep forecasting models have gained popularity as they can utilize hidden feature patterns in time series to improve forecasting performance. Nevertheless, the majority of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-13 Zhendong Wang , Ioanna Miliou , Isak Samsten , Panagiotis Papapetrou

The generation of synthetic data is an essential tool to study complex systems, allowing for example to test models of these in precisely controlled settings, or to parametrize simulation models when data is missing. This paper focuses on…

Applications · Statistics 2019-11-25 Juste Raimbault

We propose an interactive methodology for generating counterfactual explanations for univariate time series data in classification tasks by leveraging 2D projections and decision boundary maps to tackle interpretability challenges. Our…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-21 Udo Schlegel , Julius Rauscher , Daniel A. Keim

Partial observability and controllability are two well-known issues in test-case synthesis for interactive systems. We address the problem of partial control in the synthesis of test cases from timed-automata specifications. Building on the…

Formal Languages and Automata Theory · Computer Science 2018-05-04 Léo Henry , Thierry Jéron , Nicolas Markey

Counterfactual prediction is about predicting outcome of the unobserved situation from the data. For example, given patient is on drug A, what would be the outcome if she switch to drug B. Most of existing works focus on modeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-29 Yanbo Xu , Cao Xiao , Jimeng Sun

We analyze the properties of the Synthetic Control (SC) and related estimators when the pre-treatment fit is imperfect. In this framework, we show that these estimators are generally biased if treatment assignment is correlated with…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-01-13 Bruno Ferman , Cristine Pinto

This paper studies inference on treatment effects in panel data settings with unobserved confounding. We model outcome variables through a factor model with random factors and loadings. Such factors and loadings may act as unobserved…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-12-05 Guido W. Imbens , Davide Viviano

Counterfactual inference is a powerful tool, capable of solving challenging problems in high-profile sectors. To perform counterfactual inference, one requires knowledge of the underlying causal mechanisms. However, causal mechanisms cannot…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-23 Athanasios Vlontzos , Bernhard Kainz , Ciaran M. Gilligan-Lee

Baseline estimation is critical to Demand Response (DR) settlement in electricity markets, yet existing machine learning methods remain limited in predictive performance, while methodologies from causal inference and counterfactual…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Jonas Sievers , Mardavij Roozbehani

We prove a general existence result in stochastic optimal control in discrete time where controls take values in conditional metric spaces, and depend on the current state and the information of past decisions through the evolution of a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-12-19 Asgar Jamneshan , Michael Kupper , José Miguel Zapata

Counterfactual explanations suggest what should be different in the input instance to change the outcome of an AI system. When dealing with counterfactual explanations in the field of Predictive Process Monitoring, however, control flow…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Andrei Buliga , Chiara Di Francescomarino , Chiara Ghidini , Ivan Donadello , Fabrizio Maria Maggi

Counterfactual Explanations (CEs) are a powerful technique used to explain Machine Learning models by showing how the input to a model should be minimally changed for the model to produce a different output. Similar proposals have been made…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-01 Nicola Gigante , Francesco Leofante , Andrea Micheli

Counterfactual explanations is one of the post-hoc methods used to provide explainability to machine learning models that have been attracting attention in recent years. Most examples in the literature, address the problem of generating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-11 Guillermo Navas-Palencia