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Cross-classified data frequently arise in scientific fields such as education, healthcare, and social sciences. A common modeling strategy is to introduce crossed random effects within a regression framework. However, this approach often…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-22 Shota Takeishi , Shonosuke Sugasawa

Micro-randomized trials are commonly conducted for optimizing mobile health interventions such as push notifications for behavior change. In analyzing such trials, causal excursion effects are often of primary interest, and their estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-19 Yihan Bao , Lauren Bell , Elizabeth Williamson , Claire Garnett , Tianchen Qian

Robust estimation and variable selection procedure are developed for the extended t-process regression model with functional data. Statistical properties such as consistency of estimators and predictions are obtained. Numerical studies show…

Applications · Statistics 2018-12-20 Zhanfeng Wang , Kai Li , Jian Qing Shi

Network experiments are powerful tools for studying spillover effects, which avoid endogeneity by randomly assigning treatments to units over networks. However, it is non-trivial to analyze network experiments properly without imposing…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-09 Mengsi Gao , Peng Ding

We propose new local error estimators for splitting and composition methods. They are based on the construction of lower order schemes obtained at each step as a linear combination of the intermediate stages of the integrator, so that the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-10-29 Sergio Blanes , Fernando Casas , Mechthild Thalhammer

Treatment effect estimation is essential for informed decision-making in many fields such as healthcare, economics, and public policy. While flexible machine learning models have been widely applied for estimating heterogeneous treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Pascal Memmesheimer , Vincent Heuveline , Jürgen Hesser

Thanks to computing power increase, the certification and the conception of complex systems relies more and more on simulation. To this end, predictive codes are needed, which have generally to be evaluated in a huge number of input points.…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-06 Sophie Marque-Pucheu , Guillaume Perrin , Josselin Garnier

When individuals engage in social or physical interactions, a unit's outcome may depend on the treatments received by others. In such interference environments, we provide a unified framework characterizing a broad class of spillover…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Fei Fang , Laura Forastiere

The research is about a systematic investigation on the following issues. First, we construct different outcome regression-based estimators for conditional average treatment effect under, respectively, true (oracle), parametric,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-23 Lu Li , Niwen Zhou , Lixing Zhu

While palliative care is increasingly commonly delivered to hospitalized patients with serious illnesses, few studies have estimated its causal effects. Courtright et al. (2016) adopted a cluster-randomized stepped-wedge design to assess…

In adaptive clinical trials, the conventional end-of-trial point estimate of a treatment effect is prone to bias, that is, a systematic tendency to deviate from its true value. As stated in recent FDA guidance on adaptive designs, it is…

We develop a framework for causal inference with continuous spatiotemporal point-process outcomes under cell-level interventions and outcome spillover. Potential outcomes are indexed by full treatment allocations, and the observed…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Conor Kresin , Duncan A. Clark , Louis Davis , Martin Hazelton

This note introduces a doubly robust (DR) estimator for regression discontinuity (RD) designs. RD designs provide a quasi-experimental framework for estimating treatment effects, where treatment assignment depends on whether a running…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-28 Masahiro Kato

Treatment effects of stochastic policy shifts quantify differences in outcomes across counterfactual scenarios with varying treatment distributions. Stochastic policy shifts may be of interest in settings where it is unrealistic or…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Michael Jetsupphasuk , Chenwei Fang , Didong Li , Michael G. Hudgens

This article introduces a new estimator of average treatment effects under unobserved confounding in modern data-rich environments featuring large numbers of units and outcomes. The proposed estimator is doubly robust, combining outcome…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-30 Alberto Abadie , Anish Agarwal , Raaz Dwivedi , Abhin Shah

Modern causal inference methods allow machine learning to be used to weaken parametric modeling assumptions. However, the use of machine learning may result in complications for inference. Doubly-robust cross-fit estimators have been…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-11 Paul N Zivich , Alexander Breskin

Model performance evaluation is a critical and expensive task in machine learning and computer vision. Without clear guidelines, practitioners often estimate model accuracy using a one-time completely random selection of the data. However,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-07-19 Riccardo Fogliato , Pratik Patil , Mathew Monfort , Pietro Perona

Measurement error is a common challenge for causal inference studies using electronic health record (EHR) data, where clinical outcomes and treatments are frequently mismeasured. Researchers often address measurement error by conducting…

This paper examines estimation of skill formation models, a critical component in understanding human capital development and its effects on individual outcomes. Existing estimators are either based on moment conditions and only applicable…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-28 Antonia Antweiler , Joachim Freyberger

Adaptive experimental designs have gained popularity in clinical trials and online experiments. Unlike traditional, fixed experimental designs, adaptive designs can dynamically adjust treatment randomization probabilities and other design…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-19 Wenxin Zhang , Mark van der Laan