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We study the performance guarantees of exploration-free greedy algorithms for the linear contextual bandit problem. We introduce a novel condition, named the \textit{Local Anti-Concentration} (LAC) condition, which enables a greedy bandit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-17 Seok-Jin Kim , Min-hwan Oh

We study ``selective'' or ``conditional'' classification problems under an agnostic setting. Classification tasks commonly focus on modeling the relationship between features and categories that captures the vast majority of data. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Jizhou Huang , Brendan Juba

We study regret minimization in a stochastic multi-armed bandit setting and establish a fundamental trade-off between the regret suffered under an algorithm, and its statistical robustness. Considering broad classes of underlying arms'…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-23 Kumar Ashutosh , Jayakrishnan Nair , Anmol Kagrecha , Krishna Jagannathan

In sequential search, alternatives are tested until the true class is found. Standard proper scoring rules like log loss are local, ignoring the ranking of competitors and misaligning model evaluation with search utility. We show that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Gerardo A. Flores , Yash Deshpande , Jannis R. Brea , Ashia C. Wilson

We study the fundamental problem of sequential probability assignment, also known as online learning with logarithmic loss, with respect to an arbitrary, possibly nonparametric hypothesis class. Our goal is to obtain a complexity measure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-08 Ziyi Liu , Idan Attias , Daniel M. Roy

Existing guarantees for misspecified kernelized bandit optimization pay for misspecification through kernel complexity: in generic offline bounds, the misspecification level $\varepsilon$ is multiplied by $\sqrt{d_\mathrm{eff}}$, where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Davide Maran , Csaba Szepesvári

Recent works in bandit problems adopted lasso convergence theory in the sequential decision-making setting. Even with fully observed contexts, there are technical challenges that hinder the application of existing lasso convergence theory:…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-25 Byoungwook Jang , Julia Nepper , Marc Chevrette , Jo Handelsman , Alfred O. Hero

We study the problem of sequential probability assignment under logarithmic loss, both with and without side information. Our objective is to analyze the minimax regret -- a notion extensively studied in the literature -- in terms of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Zeyu Jia , Yury Polyanskiy , Alexander Rakhlin

The problem of bipartite ranking, where instances are labeled positive or negative and the goal is to learn a scoring function that minimizes the probability of mis-ranking a pair of positive and negative instances (or equivalently, that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-08-13 Shivani Agarwal

Sequential prediction problems such as imitation learning, where future observations depend on previous predictions (actions), violate the common i.i.d. assumptions made in statistical learning. This leads to poor performance in theory and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-03-17 Stephane Ross , Geoffrey J. Gordon , J. Andrew Bagnell

We study online linear regression problems in a distributed setting, where the data is spread over a network. In each round, each network node proposes a linear predictor, with the objective of fitting the \emph{network-wide} data. It then…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-14 Deming Yuan , Alexandre Proutiere , Guodong Shi

We study the problem of uncertainty quantification via prediction sets, in an online setting where the data distribution may vary arbitrarily over time. Recent work develops online conformal prediction techniques that leverage regret…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-16 Aadyot Bhatnagar , Huan Wang , Caiming Xiong , Yu Bai

We consider the setting of online linear regression for arbitrary deterministic sequences, with the square loss. We are interested in the aim set by Bartlett et al. (2015): obtain regret bounds that hold uniformly over all competitor…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-26 Pierre Gaillard , Sébastien Gerchinovitz , Malo Huard , Gilles Stoltz

In the framework of prediction of individual sequences, sequential prediction methods are to be constructed that perform nearly as well as the best expert from a given class. We consider prediction strategies that compete with the class of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-12 András Gyorgy , Tamás Linder , Gábor Lugosi

Model selection in supervised learning provides costless guarantees as if the model that best balances bias and variance was known a priori. We study the feasibility of similar guarantees for cumulative regret minimization in the stochastic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-25 Sanath Kumar Krishnamurthy , Adrienne Margaret Propp , Susan Athey

A fundamental challenge in machine learning is the choice of a loss as it characterizes our learning task, is minimized in the training phase, and serves as an evaluation criterion for estimators. Proper losses are commonly chosen, ensuring…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-04 Han Bao , Asuka Takatsu

A standard approach in pattern classification is to estimate the distributions of the label classes, and then to apply the Bayes classifier to the estimates of the distributions in order to classify unlabeled examples. As one might expect,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Nick Palmer , Paul W. Goldberg

Computationally efficient contextual bandits are often based on estimating a predictive model of rewards given contexts and arms using past data. However, when the reward model is not well-specified, the bandit algorithm may incur…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-14 Sanath Kumar Krishnamurthy , Vitor Hadad , Susan Athey

We study online aggregation of the predictions of experts, and first show new second-order regret bounds in the standard setting, which are obtained via a version of the Prod algorithm (and also a version of the polynomially weighted…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-02-11 Pierre Gaillard , Gilles Stoltz , Tim Van Erven

Next-token prediction with the logarithmic loss is a cornerstone of autoregressive sequence modeling, but, in practice, suffers from error amplification, where errors in the model compound and generation quality degrades as sequence length…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-19 Dhruv Rohatgi , Adam Block , Audrey Huang , Akshay Krishnamurthy , Dylan J. Foster