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Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) form a critical component of Space Weather. The complex, intertwined dynamics of SEP sources, acceleration, and transport make their forecasting very challenging. Yet, information about SEP arrival and their…
Computational simulations of wildfire spread typically employ empirical rate-of-spread calculations under various conditions (such as terrain, fuel type, weather). Small perturbations in conditions can often lead to significant changes in…
We assess the predictive capabilities of various classes of avalanche models for solar flares. We demonstrate that avalanche models cannot generally be used to predict specific events due to their high sensitivity to their embedded…
Global climate models aim to reproduce physical processes on a global scale and predict quantities such as temperature given some forcing inputs. We consider climate ensembles made of collections of such runs with different initial…
This paper introduces a generalised version of importance subsampling for time series reduction/aggregation in optimisation-based power system planning models. Recent studies indicate that reliably determining optimal electricity…
Spatial and spatio-temporal single-structure point process models are widely used in epidemiology, biology, ecology, seismology... . However, most natural phenomena present multiple interaction structure or exhibit dependence at multiple…
Dynamical downscaling with high-resolution regional climate models may offer the possibility of realistically reproducing precipitation and weather events in climate simulations. As resolutions fall to order kilometers, the use of explicit…
Due to the rise in the use of renewable energies as an alternative to traditional ones, and especially solar energy, there is increasing interest in studying how to address photovoltaic forecasting in the face of the challenge of…
Predicting medical events in advance within critical care settings is paramount for patient outcomes and resource management. Utilizing predictive models, healthcare providers can anticipate issues such as cardiac arrest, sepsis, or…
We present the implementation of coupling the EUropean Heliospheric FORcasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) and the improved Particle Acceleration and Transport in the Heliosphere (iPATH) model and simulate the widespread solar energetic…
Efficient integration of solar energy into the electricity mix depends on a reliable anticipation of its intermittency. A promising approach to forecast the temporal variability of solar irradiance resulting from the cloud cover dynamics is…
Changes in the atmospheric composition alter the magnitude and partitioning between the downward propagating solar and atmospheric longwave radiative fluxes heating the Earth's surface. These changes are computed by radiative transfer codes…
This paper proposes an improved deep learning based maximum power point tracking (MPPT) in solar photovoltaic cells considering various time series based environmental inputs. Generally, artificial neural network based MPPT algorithms use…
Extreme value analysis is an essential methodology in the study of rare and extreme events, which hold significant interest in various fields, particularly in the context of environmental sciences. Models that employ the exceedances of…
This review focuses on the processes that energize and trigger major solar flares and flux-rope destabilizations. Numerical modeling of specific solar regions is hampered by uncertain coronal-field reconstructions and by poorly understood…
Accurate solar forecasting underpins effective renewable energy management. We present SolarCAST, a causally informed model predicting future global horizontal irradiance (GHI) at a target site using only historical GHI from site X and…
We propose a latent self-exciting point process model that describes geographically distributed interactions between pairs of entities. In contrast to most existing approaches that assume fully observable interactions, here we consider a…
In this paper, we demonstrate the importance of embedding temporal information for an accurate prediction of solar irradiance. We have used two sets of models for forecasting solar irradiance. The first one uses only time series data of…
The physics of solar flares occurring on the Sun is highly complex and far from fully understood. However, observations show that solar eruptions are associated with the intense kilogauss fields of active regions, where free energies are…
The challenges in applications of solar energy lies in its intermittency and dependency on meteorological parameters such as; solar radiation, ambient temperature, rainfall, wind-speed etc., and many other physical parameters like dust…