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Inferring behavior model of a running software system is quite useful for several automated software engineering tasks, such as program comprehension, anomaly detection, and testing. Most existing dynamic model inference techniques are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-31 Mohammad Jafar Mashhadi , Hadi Hemmati

Conditional differential entropy provides an intuitive measure for relatively ranking time-series complexity by quantifying uncertainty in future observations given past context. However, its direct computation for high-dimensional…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-24 Jacob Ayers , Richard Hahnloser , Julia Ulrich , Lothar Sebastian Krapp , Remo Nitschke , Sabine Stoll , Balthasar Bickel , Reinhard Furrer

Interactive statistical decision making (ISDM) features algorithm-dependent data generated through interaction. Existing information-theoretic lower bounds in ISDM largely target expected risk, while tail-sensitive objectives are less…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Raghav Bongole , Tobias J. Oechtering , Mikael Skoglund

For a high-dimensional linear model with a finite number of covariates measured with error, we study statistical inference on the parameters associated with the error-prone covariates, and propose a new corrected decorrelated score test and…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-29 Mengyan Li , Runze Li , Yanyuan Ma

Recent interest in the external validity of prediction models (i.e., the problem of different train and test distributions, known as dataset shift) has produced many methods for finding predictive distributions that are invariant to dataset…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-20 Adarsh Subbaswamy , Bryant Chen , Suchi Saria

Covariance regression analysis is an approach to linking the covariance of responses to a set of explanatory variables $X$, where $X$ can be a vector, matrix, or tensor. Most of the literature on this topic focuses on the "Fixed-$X$"…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-08 Tao Zou , Wei Lan , Runze Li , Chih-Ling Tsai

Combining matching and regression for causal inference provides double-robustness in removing treatment effect estimation bias due to confounding variables. In most real-world applications, however, treatment and control populations are not…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-07-14 Alireza S. Mahani , Mansour T. A. Sharabiani

This paper considers a structural-factor approach to modeling high-dimensional time series and space-time data by decomposing individual series into trend, seasonal, and irregular components. For ease in analyzing many time series, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-19 Zhaoxing Gao , Ruey S Tsay

Suppose that we observe independent random pairs $(X_1,Y_1)$, $(X_2,Y_2)$, >..., $(X_n,Y_n)$. Our goal is to estimate regression functions such as the conditional mean or $\beta$--quantile of $Y$ given $X$, where $0<\beta <1$. In order to…

Computation · Statistics 2009-01-29 Lutz Duembgen , Arne Kovac

We introduce an adaptive method with formal quality guarantees for weak supervision in a non-stationary setting. Our goal is to infer the unknown labels of a sequence of data by using weak supervision sources that provide independent noisy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-05 Alessio Mazzetto , Reza Esfandiarpoor , Akash Singirikonda , Eli Upfal , Stephen H. Bach

Information theory provides tools to predict the performance of a learning algorithm on a given dataset. For instance, the accuracy of learning an unknown parameter can be upper bounded by reducing the learning task to hypothesis testing…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-04-21 Evan Peters

Many crucial problems in deep learning and statistical inference are caused by a variational gap, i.e., a difference between model evidence (log-likelihood) and evidence lower bound (ELBO). In particular, in a classical VAE setting that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-06 Łukasz Struski , Marcin Mazur , Paweł Batorski , Przemysław Spurek , Jacek Tabor

We consider the problem of inference on the signs of $n>1$ parameters. We aim to provide $1-\alpha$ post-hoc confidence bounds on the number of positive and negative (or non-positive) parameters. The guarantee is simultaneous, for all…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-05 Ruth Heller , Aldo Solari

While many methods are available to detect structural changes in a time series, few procedures are available to quantify the uncertainty of these estimates post-detection. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing a new framework to test…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-16 Sean Jewell , Paul Fearnhead , Daniela Witten

This note presents a unified analysis of the identification of dynamical systems with low-rank constraints under high-dimensional scaling. This identification problem for dynamic systems are challenging due to the intrinsic dependency of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-23 Junlin Li

The Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) framework aims to learn invariant features from a set of environments for solving the out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization problem. The underlying assumption is that the causal components of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-28 Moulik Choraria , Ibtihal Ferwana , Ankur Mani , Lav R. Varshney

Causal inference on time series data is a challenging problem, especially in the presence of unobserved confounders. This work focuses on estimating the causal effect between two time series that are confounded by a third, unobserved time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-19 Felix Schur , Jonas Peters

Statistical inference can be computationally prohibitive in ultrahigh-dimensional linear models. Correlation-based variable screening, in which one leverages marginal correlations for removal of irrelevant variables from the model prior to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-07 Talal Ahmed , Waheed U. Bajwa

Causal inference is known to be very challenging when only observational data are available. Randomized experiments are often costly and impractical and in instrumental variable regression the number of instruments has to exceed the number…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-19 Dominik Rothenhäusler , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

We consider the problem of undirected graphical model inference. In many applications, instead of perfectly recovering the unknown graph structure, a more realistic goal is to infer some graph invariants (e.g., the maximum degree, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-31 Junwei Lu , Matey Neykov , Han Liu