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We study the statistics of first passage times (FPTs) of trajectory observables in both classical and quantum Markov processes. We consider specifically the FPTs of counting observables, that is, the times to reach a certain threshold of a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-05-17 George Bakewell-Smith , Federico Girotti , Mădălin Guţă , Juan P. Garrahan

A fluctuation theorem is examined for the first-passage time of a biomolecular machine (e.g., a motor protein or an enzyme) in a nonequilibrium steady-state. For such machines in which the driven, observable process is coupled to a hidden…

Biological Physics · Physics 2025-09-15 D. Evan Piephoff , Jianshu Cao

This paper is a survey of various proofs of the so called {\em fundamental theorem of Markov chains}: every ergodic Markov chain has a unique positive stationary distribution and the chain attains this distribution in the limit independent…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-05 Somenath Biswas

The first-passage time (FPT) is the time it takes a system variable to cross a given boundary for the first time. In the context of Markov networks, the FPT is the time a random walker takes to reach a particular node (target) by hopping…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2024-03-22 Jaroslav Albert

In a Markov chain started at a state $x$, the hitting time $\tau(y)$ is the first time that the chain reaches another state $y$. We study the probability $\mathbf{P}_x(\tau(y) = t)$ that the first visit to $y$ occurs precisely at a given…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-08-06 James Norris , Yuval Peres , Alex Zhai

We derive the asymptotic first passage time (FPT) distribution for space-dependent variable-order time-fractional diffusion, where the fractional exponent $\alpha(x)$ varies with position. For any sufficiently smooth $\alpha(x)$ on a finite…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-04-16 Wancheng Li , Daniel S. Han

Many scientific questions can be framed as asking for a first passage time (FPT), which generically describes the time it takes a random "searcher" to find a "target." The important timescale in a variety of biophysical systems is the time…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-18 Hwai-Ray Tung , Sean D Lawley

There are two distinct perspectives on the quantum time-of-arrival: one can ask for the probability that a particle is found at the detector at a given time, regardless of whether it was previously detected, or for the probability that the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-03-31 Mafalda Pinto Couto , Lorenzo Maccone , Lorenzo Catani , Simone Roncallo

For irreducible, time-homogeneous Markov networks, mutual linearity has recently been established for both occupation probabilities and network currents in the stationary regime as well as in the non-stationary regime in Laplace space. The…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-05-04 Julian B. Voits , Ulrich S. Schwarz

We study a strongly Non-Markovian variant of random walk in which the probability of visiting a given site $i$ is a function $f$ of number of previous visits $v(i)$ to the site. If the probability is proportional to number of visits to the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-10-19 M C Warambhe , P M Gade

We study the problem of random search in finite networks with a tree topology, where it is expected that the distribution of the first-passage time F(t) decays exponentially. We show that the slope of the exponential tail is independent of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-11-22 M. Reza Shaebani , Robin Jose , Christian Sand , Ludger Santen

In this paper, we present a novel iterative Monte Carlo method for approximating the stationary probability of a single state of a positive recurrent Markov chain. We utilize the characterization that the stationary probability of a state…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2015-12-11 Christina E. Lee , Asuman Ozdaglar , Devavrat Shah

In this note we derive the exact probability that a specific state in a two-state Markov chain is visited exactly $k$ times after $N$ transitions. We provide a closed-form solution for $\mathbb{P}(N_l = k \mid N)$, considering initial state…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-07 Mohammad Taha Shah

This article describes an accurate procedure for computing the mean first passage times of a finite irreducible Markov chain and a Markov renewal process. The method is a refinement to the Kohlas, Zeit fur Oper Res, 30,197-207, (1986)…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-17 Jeffrey J. Hunter

We study the accurate and efficient computation of the expected number of times each state is visited in discrete- and continuous-time Markov chains. To obtain sound accuracy guarantees efficiently, we lift interval iteration and…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2024-02-21 Hannah Mertens , Joost-Pieter Katoen , Tim Quatmann , Tobias Winkler

A well-known theorem usually attributed to Keilson states that, for an irreducible continuous-time birth-and-death chain on the nonnegative integers and any d, the passage time from state 0 to state d is distributed as a sum of d…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-05-19 James Allen Fill

Probabilistic Computation Tree Logic (PCTL) and Continuous Stochastic Logic (CSL) are often used to describe specifications of probabilistic properties for discrete time and continuous time, respectively. In PCTL and CSL, the possibility of…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2011-11-15 Takashi Tomita , Shigeki Hagihara , Naoki Yonezaki

This paper considers a class of non-Markovian discrete-time random processes on a finite state space {1,...,d}. The transition probabilities at each time are influenced by the number of times each state has been visited and by a fixed a…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Robin Pemantle

We investigate the statistics of the first-passage time (FPT) to a fractal self-similar boundary of the Koch snowflake. When the starting position is fixed near the absorbing boundary, the FPT distribution exhibits an apparent power-law…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-07-15 Yilin Ye , Adrien Chaigneau , Denis S. Grebenkov

Fluctuations in stochastic systems are usually characterized by the full counting statistics, which analyzes the distribution of the number of events taking place in the fixed time interval. In an alternative approach, the distribution of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-01-24 Krzysztof Ptaszynski
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