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For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…
Power-law distributions are typical macroscopic features occurring in almost all complex systems observable in nature. As a result, researchers in quantitative analyses must often generate random synthetic variates obeying power-law…
The filtering distribution is a time-evolving probability distribution on the state of a dynamical system, given noisy observations. We study the large-time asymptotics of this probability distribution for discrete-time, randomly…
Different types of two- and three-dimensional representations of a finite metric space are studied that focus on the accurate representation of the linear order among the distances rather than their actual values. Lower and upper bounds for…
The purpose of this letter is to define a distance on the underlying phase space of a chaotic map, based on natural invariant density of the map. It is observed that for logistic map this distance is equivalent to Wootters' statistical…
Reachability analysis evaluates system safety, by identifying the set of states a system may evolve within over a finite time horizon. In contrast to model-based reachability analysis, data-driven reachability analysis estimates reachable…
A novel approach is suggested for improving the accuracy of fault detection in distribution networks. This technique combines adaptive probability learning and waveform decomposition to optimize the similarity of features. Its objective is…
Given samples from an unknown distribution $p$, is it possible to distinguish whether $p$ belongs to some class of distributions $\mathcal{C}$ versus $p$ being far from every distribution in $\mathcal{C}$? This fundamental question has…
The patterns of motion of mobile agents has received recently wide attention in the literature. There is a number of recent studies centered around the motion behavior of many agents ranging from albatrosses to human beings. Special…
We study the problem of identifying the dynamics of a linear system when one has access to samples generated by a similar (but not identical) system, in addition to data from the true system. We use a weighted least squares approach and…
Policy gradient methods are among the most effective methods in challenging reinforcement learning problems with large state and/or action spaces. However, little is known about even their most basic theoretical convergence properties,…
Quantization for probability distributions refers broadly to estimating a given probability measure by a discrete probability measure supported by a finite number of points. We consider general geometric approaches to quantization using…
Wasserstein distances are metrics on probability distributions inspired by the problem of optimal mass transportation. Roughly speaking, they measure the minimal effort required to reconfigure the probability mass of one distribution in…
To infer the parameters of mechanistic models with intractable likelihoods, techniques such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) are increasingly being adopted. One of the main disadvantages of ABC in practical situations, however, is…
Quantum repeaters are envisioned to enable long-distance entanglement distribution. Analysis of quantum-repeater networks could hasten their realization by informing design decisions and research priorities. Determining derivatives of…
We investigate the relations holding among generalized dimensions of invariant measures in dynamical systems and similar quantities defined by the scaling of global averages of powers of return times. Because of a heuristic use of Kac…
Distributed Opportunistic Scheduling (DOS) techniques have been recently proposed to improve the throughput performance of wireless networks. With DOS, each station contends for the channel with a certain access probability. If a contention…
A common challenge in computer experiments and related fields is to efficiently explore the input space using a small number of samples, i.e., the experimental design problem. Much of the recent focus in the computer experiment literature,…
The PAC-Bayesian approach is a powerful set of techniques to derive non- asymptotic risk bounds for random estimators. The corresponding optimal distribution of estimators, usually called the Gibbs posterior, is unfortunately intractable.…
The center of gravity is one of the most frequently used algorithm for position reconstruction with different analytical forms for the noise optimization. The error distributions of the different forms are essential instruments to improve…