Related papers: COVID-19 Outbreak Prediction and Analysis using Se…

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted lives and economies across the globe, leading to many deaths. While vaccination is an important intervention, its roll-out is slow and unequal across the globe. Therefore, extensive testing still remains…

We propose a partial identification method for estimating disease prevalence from serology studies. Our data are results from antibody tests in some population sample, where the test parameters, such as the true/false positive rates, are…

Countries officially record the number of COVID-19 cases based on medical tests of a subset of the population with unknown participation bias. For prevalence estimation, the official information is typically discarded and, instead, small…

Intent of this research is to explore how mathematical models, specifically Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, can be utilized to forecast peak outbreak timeline of COVID-19 epidemic amongst a population of interest starting from the…

We propose a deterministic SAIVRD model and a stochastic SARV model of the epidemic COVID-19 involving asymptomatic infections and vaccinations to conduct data forecasts using time-dependent parameters. The forecast by our deterministic…

Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures…

Background. Forecasting the time of forthcoming pandemic reduces the impact of diseases by taking precautionary steps such as public health messaging and raising the consciousness of doctors. With the continuous and rapid increase in the…

In this paper, we study the effectiveness of the modelling approach on the pandemic due to the spreading of the novel COVID-19 disease and develop a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model that provides a theoretical framework to…

An outbreak of respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus is ongoing from December 2019. As of July 22, 2020, it has caused an epidemic outbreak with more than 15 million confirmed infections and above 6 hundred thousand reported…

COVID-19 testing has become a standard approach for estimating prevalence which then assist in public health decision making to contain and mitigate the spread of the disease. The sampling designs used are often biased in that they do not…

Understanding dynamics of an outbreak like that of COVID-19 is important in designing effective control measures. This study aims to develop an agent based model that compares changes in infection progression by manipulating different…

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect communities around the world. To date, almost 6 million people have died as a consequence of COVID-19, and more than one-quarter of a billion people are estimated to have been infected…

Accurate forecasts for COVID-19 are necessary for better preparedness and resource management. Specifically, deciding the response over months or several months requires accurate long-term forecasts which is particularly challenging as the…

Physical contacts result in the spread of various phenomena such as viruses, gossips, ideas, packages and marketing pamphlets across a population. The spread depends on how people move and co-locate with each other, or their mobility…

We develop a statistical model for the testing of disease prevalence in a population. The model assumes a binary test result, positive or negative, but allows for biases in sample selection and both type I (false positive) and type II…

COVID-19 is a pandemic disease that began to rapidly spread in the US with the first case detected on January 19, 2020, in Washington State. March 9, 2020, and then increased rapidly with total cases of 25,739 as of April 20, 2020. The…

We argue that frequent sampling of the fraction of infected people (either by random testing or by analysis of sewage water), is central to managing the COVID-19 pandemic because it both measures in real time the key variable controlled by…

In this study, we construct a series of evolving epidemic networks by measuring the correlations of daily COVID-19 cases time series among 3,105 counties in the United States. Remarkably, through quantitative analysis of the spatial…

Introduction: For COVID-19 patients accurate prediction of disease severity and mortality risk would greatly improve care delivery and resource allocation. There are many patient-related factors, such as pre-existing comorbidities that…

Importance: Alternative methods for hospital utilization forecasting, essential information in hospital crisis planning, are necessary in a novel pandemic when traditional data sources such as disease testing are limited. Objective:…